[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - The Staying Up Tracker - season 21-22 Final Update - 11 ABOVE

[McTavish]

Lost on xG, won the game. Again.

Much prefer points over Athletic articles about how pretty the football is.

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Can't we have both?

 

[schmunk]

really does go to show what a useless stat for the average fan xG really is, and also how pointless the new win probability stat is

What it really shows is how *random* PL football is.

Compared to other sports, even perhaps other leagues, it's so difficult to predict the results, mainly because of how difficult it is for teams to score, meaning that a low-probability event such as scoring against the run of play can have a very significant impact on the final result.

That's what makes football so exciting composed to other sports. For the exact opposite see basketball, where they score every few seconds. Dull, dull, dull.

 

[Machiavelli]

really does go to show what a useless stat for the average fan xG really is, and also how pointless the new win probability stat is


We all know that if we keep missing chances then we wont win games, and we also know that if we are 2-0 down with 5 mins to go then we are unlikley to win the game

They just encourage betting, which supposedly the FA and the Prem are against, but seem to encourage and promote it at every and all opportunity

It is for those fans that aren't remotely interested in what future beholds their club. It just so happens that most bookies and others that are engaged in making predictions about B&HA this season used metrics -- and prominent among these last year's xG, particularly the discrepancy between our season's xG and points -- and other factors to predict that B&HA would finish mid-table.
On the other hand, your argument is based on ifs and statements of the obvious -- which are unfalsifiable claims.

 

[Giraffe]

Apologies for the lateness of this post. I hot footed it from Brentford to the airport for a quick holiday. Then took forever to get connected in the hotel horror show we are staying in. But anyway... 3 thoroughly undeserved but very welcome points!

Now 1 over. Lovely.

 

[FatSuperman]

Update the title you long necked rat


Love you x

 

[Giraffe]

Update the title you long necked rat


Love you x

Give me a chance

 

[jakarta]

So basically we can get stuffed by Leicester? Thanks so much for my first home game in around 2 years...

 

[FatSuperman]

Give me a chance

I live only for the Tracker. Hope you have a great holiday!!

 

[schmunk]

Given we're now above the Europe tracker, should we be making plans for World Cup football next year?

 

[father_and_son]

It is for those fans that aren't remotely interested in what future beholds their club. It just so happens that most bookies and others that are engaged in making predictions about B&HA this season used metrics -- and prominent among these last year's xG, particularly the discrepancy between our season's xG and points -- and other factors to predict that B&HA would finish mid-table.
On the other hand, your argument is based on ifs and statements of the obvious -- which are unfalsifiable claims.

Excellent book on xG and other metrics here...https://www.amazon.com/Football-Hackers-Science-Data-Revolution/dp/1788702050

Goes in to lots of detail but ultimately pretty much debunks xG as a predictive value. Because of the low scoring nature of football over, say, the American sports, predicting results and "moneyball" just doesn't work in game management (...yet) but is key to finding talent to build the right squad in the first place.

Well worth a read.

 

[essbee1]

Given we're now above the Europe tracker, should we be making plans for World Cup football next year?

Not World Cup, but I've put in a request for a hospitality box at the Nou Camp to watch the lads if that's any indication of what
we should be doing.

 

[nickbrighton]

It is for those fans that aren't remotely interested in what future beholds their club. It just so happens that most bookies and others that are engaged in making predictions about B&HA this season used metrics -- and prominent among these last year's xG, particularly the discrepancy between our season's xG and points -- and other factors to predict that B&HA would finish mid-table.
On the other hand, your argument is based on ifs and statements of the obvious -- which are unfalsifiable claims.

Have to disagree, I have a big interest in the future of the club which instantly negates your argument.

I said the average fan, not the clubs technical and coaching staff, not the bookies analysists The average shout at the TV when we hit the post, for the umpteenth time, the average season ticket holder. We all know we were close last year, and that if we were a bit more clinical we would have a shed load more points. We all know that if City are 4 nil up with 5 to go we are unlikely to win. What do xG and win probability tell me that i cant see with my on eyes.

Do you really think that a win probability of 95% isnt stating the bleeding obvious? I think very few people would say that it gives them something they didnt know- so yes they are useless stats for the average guy

 

[Uh_huh_him]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] will you be doing the tracker league table again?
It was interesting to see how other teams were doing in comparison.

 

[Giraffe]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] will you be doing the tracker league table again?
It was interesting to see how other teams were doing in comparison.

Yes will do after the first 5 games I think.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Yes will do after the first 5 games I think.

Great news!!

 

[Fungus]

4 points ahead?!

 

[Barnet Seagull]

FFS, this tracker is shit.

 

[Giraffe]

Sitting in a bar in Cyprus, maybe I should stay here all season. What a game! 4 (FOUR) points over both relegation and Europe tracker!!

 

[Bob!]

4 points ahead?!

on the Europe tracker!

 

[GM98]

We're all going on a European Tour,