[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[Thunder Bolt]

Here you go.

How do Norwich get three points against us, and we get one point? There's also a difference in the West Ham v Villa game?

 

[schmunk]

I've been through and edited out the 4-pointer results so, assuming home wins in all of the Bottom 6 clashes:

Norwich 30

Villa 31

PLB 30

Wham! 40

Watford 34

The Albion 38


Assuming draws:

Norwich 27

Villa 32

PLB 30

Wham! 37

Watford 33

The Albion 39

 

[Jim in the West]

How do Norwich get three points against us, and we get one point? There's also a difference in the West Ham v Villa game?

I was just about to ask the same question. But I guess it's based on some sort of algorithm, and the "odds" don't have to add up?

 

[Giraffe]

I was just about to ask the same question. But I guess it's based on some sort of algorithm, and the "odds" don't have to add up?

I refer you to post number 1.

 

[sparkie]

How do Norwich get three points against us, and we get one point? There's also a difference in the West Ham v Villa game?

He's already explained that earlier in the thread.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Here you go.

Comforting to see that we currently have enough points even when you take into account that the total points allocated are more than will actually be allocated.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I refer you to post number 1.

He's already explained that earlier in the thread.

Sorry, I missed that or more accurately, I'd forgotten that as it's almost a year ago.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Can't believe that there are posters on this thread that don't understand how the tracker works...

It's been essential reading for a long time now.

 

[Change at Barnham]

Comforting to see that Villa's only win between now and the end of the season is against Palace.
I like your Super Duper Computer.

 

[Bob!]

Sorry, I missed that or more accurately, I'd forgotten that as it's almost a year ago.

or two years ago if you followed it last season as well.

 

[vagabond]

To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 32 UPDATE

Can't believe that there are posters on this thread that don't understand how the tracker works...

It's been essential reading for a long time now.

I understand it just fine, I just question it’s merit.

You’re extrapolating results on lots of pre suppositions. Ie, we were expecting 0 points vs the big teams at home. Yet the Arsenal result, and Man U win (last season belies that).

What’s the harm? No harm, it’s a bit of fun I agree.

But this place was in meltdown last season and people took this tracker as gospel (oh no we didn’t win our last winnable game, there we’re down).

So i just hope people keep this in perspective.

 

[Machiavelli]

Can't believe that there are posters on this thread that don't understand how the tracker works...

It's been essential reading for a long time now.

I understand completely how the tracker works, and find it helpful for the first half/two-thirds of the season; its usefulness subsides thereafter because, since we've been in the PL, survival is around 35 points, not 40.
What I hadn't picked up on is that the OP was using the same principle and applying it to all teams in the bottom six.

 

[Jeremiah]

Correct me if I am wrong but the point Villa gained at Newcastle seems to have lifted them to 28 points on the tracker when in reality it is 27.

I am confused ?

 

[saafend_seagull]

To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 32 UPDATE

Here you go.

Villa and bournemouth ain’t getting 35 points so we need a point defo.

 

[Audax]

Here you go.

Thanks!

OK, so here's my stab at the final 7 rounds (well, 6 now):



How this'll work:

1: As the results come in, I change the team names on the left side to reflect the result.
2. Once all of the bottom 6 have played, I update the remaining available points.
3. The "Max" row on the right will auto update once I've done that. The orange (oops, I chose orange...) highlight will change to green as soon as any team is unable to catch our current points even with max points.
4. The "Current" points row also updates automatically as I enter the results on the left.
5. Each round I've entered predicted results. The template for this is the same theory as Giraffe, except any games where it's bottom 6 vs bottom 6 I've used the form guide from the last 6 matches played to amend the result so there's no extra points being allocated.
6. I'll update the form-based predictions as we go, in case any of the teams have a change in fortunes.
7. That gives us a final "Predict" row at the bottom that shows where my method thinks each team will end up.
8. I might yet decide to use the form guide to predict all the matches instead of the tracker method - eg Newcastle don't look like easy wins right now.

 

[Audax]

8. I might yet decide to use the form guide to predict all the matches instead of the tracker method - eg Newcastle don't look like easy wins right now.

I've done this, using the following theory:

- Cross reference the form table position for each remaining game.
- If the teams are less than 5 places apart, give a draw.
- If the teams are 5 or more places apart, give a win to the higher team.

Villa and Bournemouth situation looks dire - no points at all for the rest of the season. I'm too lazy to update the chart image until after the next round is complete , but the summary result then becomes:

West Ham - 37
Brighton - 35
Watford - 30
Villa - 27
Bournemouth - 27
Norwich - 23

 

[Bozza]

+1

 

[Giraffe]

+1

Plus 1 indeed. First time we have been over since Feb. Lovely stuff.

Look at that little, but almost sexual, rise above the graph. A thing of beauty.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Palace to Palace was a horrible run, but since that game, it's been a blue blizzard on the tracker.

 

[Giraffe]

Revised predictor:

15 - Brighton 41
16 - West Ham 41
17 - Watford 35
----------------------------
18 - Aston Villa 32
19 - Bournemouth 30
20 - Norwich 28