[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

[fleet]

Prediction based on the others with similar assumptions:

Arsenal 49
Newcastle 47
Palace 44
Southampoton 43
West Ham 38
Watford 38
Bournemouth 36
Brighton 35
Norwich 34
Villa 33

Thankfully form counts for nothing in the run in, so just maybe we are the ones to do better than predicted.

 

[zefarelly]

We will pick up some more bonus points in the next 3 games.

I’m also finding solace that our final 3 games will be against sides very much on the beach. That could be our saving grace.

I'm thinking exactly the same, but still not convinced it's think as oppose do to hope.

I think we're good enough. . .time will tell

 

[zefarelly]

Palace to Palace was the critical point garnering period for us. We went from +4 points ahead of the 40 point tracker to -6 points behind. We totally blew our chance to have a comfotable finish to the season.

From here on, it will be tough. The only consolation is that others around us have similarly difficult finishes. I know it's obvious, but this will be tight.

Quite right, if this season was a success it would have happened by now, and we'd be comfortably mid table with 35 ish points.

We may well stay up, but we've not exactly done well of late.

I don't think it's a manager thing, we're just trying to race ferraris in Vauxhall corsas!

 

[DavePage]

just equal the points for the teams below

 

[Machiavelli]

just equal the points for three of the five teams below

Supplemented for you

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Two points from the next seven games, we'll add another four to that.

 

[Giraffe]

I'd happily forgotten about this thread, until now.

Just a reminder of the scary run in we had. I think I'd previously fancied us to stay up based on brilliant efforts at home to the big boys, but with no crowd I fear that we will struggle and their technical ability will beat ours.

The task looks tougher than before to me.

*yes I know the fixture dates may change, but this is roughly it.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I'd happily forgotten about this thread, until now.

Just a reminder of the scary run in we had. I think I'd previously fancied us to stay up based on brilliant efforts at home to the big boys, but with no crowd I fear that we will struggle and their technical ability will beat ours.

The task looks tougher than before to me.

*yes I know the fixture dates may change, but this is roughly it.

With the extended season, there is every chance that the last 4 or 5 games will be totally meaningless to teams safe from relegation.
I strongly suspect Liverpool and Manchester City will be more concerned about the new season than this.
I can see us making up the -5 pts from these two games and Southampton away

 

[zefarelly]

any team that's safe as houses when they play us may well have their heads on an imaginary beach . . . .it's going to be a strange run in that's a given.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

any team that's safe as houses when they play us may well have their heads on an imaginary beach . . . .it's going to be a strange run in that's a given.

The same will go for the other teams struggling with us.
Fortunately we have the points on the board, a better goal difference and have to play fellow strugglers just the once.

our key/toughest games will be Norwich and possibly Newcastle( they play 5 strugglers and could easily be dragged back in to it)

 

[Giraffe]

any team that's safe as houses when they play us may well have their heads on an imaginary beach . . . .it's going to be a strange run in that's a given.

Fair point but problem is:

Arsenal - playing for Europe spot
Leicester City - playing for Europe spot
Manchester United - playing for Europe spot
Norwich City - playing to stay up - unlikely to be down by then
Liverpool - either playing for the title or more likely drunk or hungover, but possibly still too good for us?
Manchester City - playing for Europe spot - or not and focusing on FA Cup/Beach
Southampton - arguably nothing to play for?
Newcastle United - probably nothing to play for?
Burnley - could be chasing a European spot - their run in is piss easy and they are not that many points off.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Fair point but problem is:

Arsenal - playing for Europe spot
Leicester City - playing for Europe spot
Manchester United - playing for Europe spot
Norwich City - playing to stay up - unlikely to be down by then
Liverpool - either playing for the title or more likely drunk or hungover, but possibly still too good for us?
Manchester City - playing for Europe spot - or not and focusing on FA Cup/Beach
Southampton - arguably nothing to play for?
Newcastle United - probably nothing to play for?
Burnley - could be chasing a European spot - their run in is piss easy and they are not that many points off.

Arsenal - playing for Europe spot (agreed could be tough, but then again they are Arsenal...)
Leicester City - playing for Europe spot ( currently 10 points clear of CL places - If the FA CUP goes ahead, could be re-arranged to a time when they are safe)
Manchester United - playing for Europe spot ( yeah - tough one)
Norwich City - playing to stay up - unlikely to be down by then ( agreed Tough)
Liverpool - either playing for the title or more likely drunk or hungover, but possibly still too good for us? ( As mentioned above - They will be champions and saving themselves for next season - an opportunity for us)
Manchester City - playing for Europe spot - or not and focusing on FA Cup/Beach ( Definite opportunity for us)
Southampton - arguably nothing to play for? ( Big Opportunity)
Newcastle United - probably nothing to play for? (Big opportunity a must win for us - They are travelling a long way for in effect a meaningless friendly)
Burnley - could be chasing a European spot - their run in is piss easy and they are not that many points off.( Haven't checked their run in, but is it piss easy as in playing struggling teams? if so then they will have already done the job for us if they are still pushing for europe)

 

[Acker79]

You'd also need to factor in the wild cards of:
1) Positive covid-19 tests and the impact on squads
2) Injuries from the limited warm up/cool downs before and after games, and from the heavier schedule
3) Changes to squads due to contracts expiring

 

[Weststander]

The traditional PL top 6 and Leicester will win virtually all their games, ManC may even win the lot.

With no away crowds on their backs (and influencing officials on little calls throughout matches), their superior players will outclass the rest, with better benches to call upon.

We simply need to be a little less shite than three other also-rans.

 

[zefarelly]

Fair point but problem is:

Arsenal - playing for Europe spot
Leicester City - playing for Europe spot
Manchester United - playing for Europe spot
Norwich City - playing to stay up - unlikely to be down by then
Liverpool - will have won the title, but even if they're having a bad trip on brown acid they're still too good for us.
Manchester City - playing for Europe spot - or not and focusing on FA Cup/Beach
Southampton - arguably nothing to play for?
Newcastle United - probably nothing to play for?
Burnley - could be chasing a European spot - their run in is piss easy and they are not that many points off.

fair point, with a minor correction.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

The traditional PL top 6 and Leicester will win virtually all their games, ManC may even win the lot.

With no away crowds on their backs (and influencing officials on little calls throughout matches), their superior players will outclass the rest, with better benches to call upon.

We simply need to be a little less shite than three other also-rans.

In normal seasons once the title is sewn up but the relegation places are still to be settled, there are freak results.
This season will be no different, but with multiple other factors coming in to play.
The key ones being the proximity of the 2020/21 season and the added risks to players of Covid-19.
I think this may have an added de-motivational effect on the Top 2 when we play them. Giving us a much bigger chance of points i those fixtures than we would otherwise have.

 

[Weststander]

In normal seasons once the title is sewn up but the relegation places are still to be settled, there are freak results.
This season will be no different, but with multiple other factors coming in to play.
The key ones being the proximity of the 2020/21 season and the added risks to players of Covid-19.
I think this may have an added de-motivational effect on the Top 2 when we play them. Giving us a much bigger chance of points i those fixtures than we would otherwise have.

I hope you’re right of course, you’re very positive about the Albion staying up.

I see it as on a knife edge.

I hope the top 6 play brilliantly and are not ‘on the beach’ when they play Villa, Watford, Norwich, West Ham and Bmuff.


A question for you - if we lost the first three fixtures and found ourselves in the bottom three, would you still be very confident that we’re staying up?

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I hope you’re right of course, you’re very positive about the Albion staying up.

I see it as on a knife edge.

I hope the top 6 play brilliantly and are not ‘on the beach’ when they play Villa, Watford, Norwich, West Ham and Bmuff.


A question for you - if we lost the first three fixtures and found ourselves in the bottom three, would you still be very confident that we’re staying up?

It would depend on how well we had played and how far behind the others we were.

I am by nature an optimist, so my faith may be misplaced. But I genuinely believe we are a much better team than recent results suggest.
I think the break will have done us a favour and given Potter the chance to instill some belief back into the squad.

 

[Bold Seagull]

The traditional PL top 6 and Leicester will win virtually all their games, ManC may even win the lot.

With no away crowds on their backs (and influencing officials on little calls throughout matches), their superior players will outclass the rest, with better benches to call upon.

We simply need to be a little less shite than three other also-rans.

This maybe true, but also possibly the reverse. The very top players, the show-boaters need a crowd for inspiration (whether positive or negative). They are Maximus Meridius turning to the crowd ‘are you not entertained?’ - only theres no crowd.

I’m clutching at straws, but I’m clinging to a bit of hope that this could present some upsets.

 

[Madafwo]

I'd forgotten how far behind the curve we were.

Can we just do a Leeds and fake a positive test result?