Sorrel
Well-known member
One of the reasons might be that we have been missing so many chances. But if we were really bad we wouldn't be having those chances. It does make us look worse (give or take a few halves where we have been terrible).
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[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER
- Thread starter Giraffe
- Start date
Weststander
Well-known member
Leeds will beat us.
The Fulham game means everything.
The Fulham game means everything.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
We all know that Fulham will ride into town and leave with at least a point.
Because it happens time after time after time when we play a lowly placed team at the Amex.
We have more chance of beating Leeds than Fulham.
Weststander
Well-known member
As much as I dislike mouthy Leeds fans, I think their athletic, relentless game will tear us apart home and away. We’re tailor made opposition for them, the pressing and harrying starts from the whistle, our considered game in a team lacking pace will be our undoing.
Agreed, although fancy us to go to Burnley and win.
singing4seagulls
Active member
- Apr 2, 2017
- 68
This tracker keeps me sane each year.
Keep the faith.
Keep the faith.
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,217
- Thread starter
- #327
Jimmy Grimble
Well-known member
We could really do with another team being drawn into the battle. Burnley will inevitably be safe which leaves 2 from 3.
Newcastle have to genuinely get sucked in at some point don’t they? Can’t keep fluking results.
Newcastle have to genuinely get sucked in at some point don’t they? Can’t keep fluking results.
- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,217
- Thread starter
- #329
Newcastle, Burnley and Palace (in particular) are much closer to us in tracker terms than the actual league table shows. I think this highlights that we have had, on paper, the harder start. The only problem is this assumes we start beating the easier teams at home, something we have struggled to do.
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,192
Yes. And, as a result, the Tracker Table reflects the bookies' expectations about relegation much better than does the actual league table.
The interesting anomaly concerns Palace who the bookies are overrating.
Not quite sure how this works out (I understand ours, but not ours in relation to others). Is this basically saying that on current form, and with the fixtures left, we 'should' end up 8 points clear of relegation?
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,192
Yes. Exactly that. West Brom and Fulham are on target for around 30-31pts and we are on target for around 39pts.
Seems about right to me as a most likely estimation.
To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 17 Update - 1 under
Believe it or not a lot of Wolves fans are very negative about their team currently. And after our game I saw comments where they think they’re in danger of sinking like a stone this year.
Hope so. Good for us. There’s usually another team that drops into danger later on. Newcastle is a good shout as well. Keep the faith.
Believe it or not a lot of Wolves fans are very negative about their team currently. And after our game I saw comments where they think they’re in danger of sinking like a stone this year.
Hope so. Good for us. There’s usually another team that drops into danger later on. Newcastle is a good shout as well. Keep the faith.
This is the big issue this season. The tracker would make me feel very comfortable in a normal year.
Unless we sort out our home form, having 7 forecast wins at home to stay on track will probably see us go more and more negative as the season comes to an end.
Bit of backup for the tracker perhaps.......
nickbrighton
Well-known member
- Feb 19, 2016
- 2,127
The problem using XG or any other stat apart from actual results is that, as we have proved ,they are meaningless. It matters not one iota that we are creating chances by the bucket load simply because our conversion rate of those chances is pants.
The best guide to how we are actually doing in comparison to other teams is Giraffes staying up tracker, which in some ways is better than the actual table especially as the number of games played starts to get so varied because it relies on actual results , rather than hypothetical goals for or against that "should" have been scored
The expected goals figures and similar are useful to coaches etc as it helps highlight where a team is failing, but to us ordinary fans they serve no purpose. We all know the main issue with us is that we cant score, with Leeds it is they cant defend, etc.
Looking at the league can give a false sense of security or of impending doom, looking at Xg that we dont score is meaningless unless we do domething about it. The Tracker knows all!
Disagree - not meaningless at all. The stats should be giving the coaching team a massive amount of direction on where they need to focus. The particular point with this one is that we’re creating (net) more chances against the same teams than we did last season.
If only we could put the ****ing thing in the net [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]
However, it’s also why I suggested that it was useful backup to the tracker, in that we’re not doing quite as badly as it appears....
FAILED to do, not struggled.
which is why the occaisional supporter has expressed a tinsey bit of concern.
I'd argue they do serve a purpose. Even for us ordinary fans. Or maybe only to those of us who have brains that like numbers (like me). But anyway: point I wanted to make here is that these stats *are* useful as they help illustrate and back up discussion points in bed-wetting threads (either to prove the bed wetting is appropriate, or to show it probably isn't).
Yes: we all "know" that our problem is that our conversion rate is terrible. And we all "know" that the poor conversion rate has cost us a *lot* of points this season (and previous seasons). But ... that hasn't stopped a host of members here from getting their knickers in a knot calling for Potter's removal. When the reality is, when you look at the underlying stats produced by our performances so far we can see that generally Potter's got us playing good football. Not always pretty and enjoyable to watch, granted, but generally speaking we're doing a pretty good job in the middle of the pitch. We're a little below average defensively, but not irrecoverably so, but we're massively below the curve on chance conversion and that's costing us.
Looking at these sorts of stats shows us something very important: IMO Potter has solved the problems that got Hughton sacked. What we now lack is the firepower to make use of the improvements Potter has made. Not sure that's Potter's fault. At this point, I think Bloom has two choices (not necessarily exclusive):
1. Dip into the bank account and buy a proven goal scorer. Forget the "take a punt" buy-on-the-cheap striker options for just one transfer window, and go out and get someone we can trust to take the opportunities that our midfield is creating. Someone who can hopefully then through their confidence in front of goal also improve Maupay and Connolly.
AND/OR
2. Go and get a known-quantity top end striker coach to support Potter and work with Welbeck, Maupay, Connolly, Trossard, etc to get them firing.
I'm not sure if the latter is viable, though. I think our problem is that we simply don't have an instinctive shooter. All of our strikers seem to want to take a touch and shoot from a position of control. But that's costing us a lot of shooting opportunities when they simply don't have the time to take a touch first, or the first touch is awful, and then the chance is gone. Having said that, was pleasing to see Connolly poach one and have a pretty decent go at an overhead strike against Wolves - maybe that'll be the game that gives him the confidence to get a few more.
Yup... all of this. And lots of lots saying that things like "numbers like xG doesnt win you matches". Well, in a way that is true but in a way it is also false. Almost without exceptions teams with high xG is high up the table and teams with low xG are low in the table. This is one of the many obvious causes for optimism, because at some point its very likely that those positive numbers also leads to positive results. Below is a table of the worst teams in the top 5 leagues this season. One of them are not like the others. And its bound to change, because luck and poor conversion is playing a part and likely cant forever. People talking about sacking Potter is yet to tell how a new manager brings luck and conversion. Lots of talk about the problems of the lack of play however, but any change in that area is more likely to result in less chances than it is to result in more.
