[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - Staying Up Tracker - 2020/21 - Game 38 Update - 1 OVER

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Except that it's 5/6*38 = 31.67, thy sheets might be justifiably damp using this maths ...

Good point, we're doomed I tell thy doomed!

 

[Giraffe]

Updated for all teams after this weekends games.

 

[Goldstone1976]

Updated for all teams after this weekends games. Looks a little better for us, sitting pretty in 12th...

Are we not -1 rather than +1?

Thanks for doing this - I come to this thread after every game...

 

[Giraffe]

Are we not -1 rather than +1?

Thanks for doing this - I come to this thread after every game...

I'm hopeless, now sorted in the original post.

 

[Machiavelli]

I remember thinking that two years ago.

I remember really thinking that at half-time two years ago, and wondering at what a place Craven Cottage is for all sorts of reasons, but especially our our recent run of results there.

 

[Dave the OAP]

Updated for all teams after this weekends games.

Are we already hoping and praying that there are 3 worse teams than us? i thought the goal was top 10 and possibly a shot at Europe?

So Burnley look crap, Fulham look crap, but will hammer us again, and Sheffield United seem to have burst the bubble.

Let’s look forward to 4th from bottom again.

 

[Hampster Gull]

And now you mention Brexit....obsessed.

Wheel loose

 

[Giraffe]

No change here, nothing to see. Still a point behind, although two behind Europe now.

 

[Giraffe]

And everyone (ahead of Monday's games.) Really shows what an easy start to the season Spurs have had.

 

[Dolph Ins]

So 11 points needed from next 12 games. I will save my panicking until after Leeds away.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

I used to be Trackersceptic but, with all the “we should be winning because we’re Brighton” stuff going on now, it is more needed than ever...

 

[Giraffe]

Forget wetting the bed, we might be rolling in the brown stuff if this continues. Another frustrating night. 3 points behind.

 

[A1X]

Funny, I've been told on several threads these games at this point of the season aren't crucial...

 

[El Turi]

We’ll make up those 3 points in the next 2 matches by beating Villa and drawing with Liverpool.

 

[Giraffe]

And everyone else:

 

[Thunder Bolt]

So here we go again.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes in the last three seasons we didn't quite need it but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Burnley (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately), but not Sheff Utd or above.

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked the last few seasons although Sheffield United out performed expectations last year. They may drop lower this year, so they are possibly the only rogue ones that also look beatable. Oh and of course Arsenal

The first half of the season looks frankly horrible, with us "expected" to only get 16 of the 40 points in the first 19 games. Truly bed wetting stuff. But then a much easier second half of the season brings us home with a further 24 points.

So here it is for the coming season:

- First five games suggest just 3 points. A big early test that could see the bed wetness return.
- After our first win on October 24th by Christmas we have just 14 points from 14 games. Just out of the bottom three?
- By February 6th, game 23 we have just 20 points, people talking about Potter losing his magic, should he go etc....
- We then have a fantastic 17 points out of 11 games, smashing Palace, Villa, Newcastle, Everton and finally Leeds on 1st May (to relegate them?!)
- We edge to 40 with 3 points out of the last 4 games and yet again watch Man City lift the league trophy on our own patch.

I really hope we do better than above, but we should be aware that is a much more tricky first half than we had last season. Thank god, most of us might not see much of it . Only joking, I'm actually gutted

I'll guess at 45-49 points this season by the way. Last season I was a little high.

For all those who are getting panicky in November, remember [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] predicted our present position.

 

[BrianWade4]

And everyone else:

Love the thread but don’t understand this

Are you saying Leics have 10 more points, Liverpool 9 more points and Man City 9 more points etc. than expected? That can’t be right....

 

[Goring-by-Seagull]

Love the thread but don’t understand this

Are you saying Leics have 10 more points, Liverpool 9 more points and Man City 9 more points etc. than expected? That can’t be right....

Going by the same criteria used for the Brighton tracker, yes: Win against bottom half at home and draw against them away, and lose every game against the top half.

It's NOT "expected" points, it's just an easy-to-follow target per game to reach 40 points.

 

[A1X]

For all those who are getting panicky in November, remember [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] predicted our present position.

So we weren't expected to do well, and have actually managed to do even worse?

 

[Goldstone1976]

So we weren't expected to do well, and have actually managed to do even worse?

That’s an extremely negative way of looking at the current state of play. Accurate though.