- Aug 8, 2005
- 27,217
So here we go again for the SEVENTH season in the Premier League.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past, it could have happened last season if Leeds hadn't fallen apart so dramatically and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Palace, but not Fulham or above. We need expected points against Chelsea though this season. Haha.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. As in last season I have added the Europe tracker as well. This is targeted at 60 points, so in addition to the above we also need to win at home and draw away to Fulham, Brentford, Spurs, Villa and Liverpool.
I feel there are a few teams that will perform better (Chelsea surely, Forest?) or worse (Brentford/Fulham) which might put a slight issue in there but otherwise it should be pretty accurate.
As last season this season seems to be pretty well weighted, with 20 points expected in each half. This hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
Interesting to note that for the first six games the relegation tracker is the same as the European tracker.
Last season I guessed we would get 55 points, we got 62. I fancy we can get 60+ again this season and reach the Europa League final. See you all in Dublin.
Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker in the last few seasons.
The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that, and yes for many seasons now the level has been lower but it has happened in the past, it could have happened last season if Leeds hadn't fallen apart so dramatically and therefore I am sticking with it - hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).
To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Palace, but not Fulham or above. We need expected points against Chelsea though this season. Haha.
So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. As in last season I have added the Europe tracker as well. This is targeted at 60 points, so in addition to the above we also need to win at home and draw away to Fulham, Brentford, Spurs, Villa and Liverpool.
I feel there are a few teams that will perform better (Chelsea surely, Forest?) or worse (Brentford/Fulham) which might put a slight issue in there but otherwise it should be pretty accurate.
As last season this season seems to be pretty well weighted, with 20 points expected in each half. This hasn't always been the case in previous seasons.
Interesting to note that for the first six games the relegation tracker is the same as the European tracker.
Last season I guessed we would get 55 points, we got 62. I fancy we can get 60+ again this season and reach the Europa League final. See you all in Dublin.
Attachments
Last edited:
. It’s a sound basis, easy to follow as the match-weeks progress. Love it.
