[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

[Giraffe]

One of my favourite threads! Can we have a graph incase we do a Leicester? Too soon?

I’ll make a note for season 3

 

[dadams2k11]

I'm nervous already.

 

[Triggaaar]

I get what you are saying but it's still a bit silly.

It's not silly, many of us enjoyed viewing last season's version, and checking against it as we progressed through the season.

 

[Bodian]

Hurrah, it's back. But what is 'Variance Cum' exactly? Sounds worrying.

 

[Dick Head]

Bravo, [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]! The staying up tracker was my favourite thread last season.

 

[AmexRuislip]

So here we go again.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker last season.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that all close season, and yes last season we didn't quite need it but it has happened and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Newcastle as we don't play ourselves).

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked last season in that we tracked close to this or there or thereabouts, doing slightly better early on, slightly worse in the middle and finishing close enough.

So here it is for the coming season:

- First seven games yield just five points, NSC goes into meltdown.
- 15 games in a massive drubbing of Palace sees us looking up the table not down.
- we then go 9 games without a win and edge towards the relegation zone by the end of January.
- a MASSIVE March sees us take 10 points from 4 games to edge towards safety
- 7 points in the last 6 games edges us over the line.

All sounds very familiar doesn't it.

You should've done one for an alternate universe, where that Albion just scrapes by with 40 points, which pleases all the wetterbeds

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

If we do come out of those first seven games with just 5 points its not going to get easier any time soon, with a heavily-strengthened West Ham side followed by a long trip to Newcastle, a widely-tipped wolves side and then a difficult game at Everton. The subsequent cardiff away becomes huge, as does Leicester at home the week after.

Premier league feels very hard this year, but that's the pessimist in me. On other hand, Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield might find it even harder.

Sent from my GT-I8262 using Tapatalk

 

[n1 gull]

If we do come out of those first seven games with just 5 points its not going to get easier any time soon, with a heavily-strengthened West Ham side followed by a long trip to Newcastle, a widely-tipped wolves side and then a difficult game at Everton. The subsequent cardiff away becomes huge, as does Leicester at home the week after.

Premier league feels very hard this year, but that's the pessimist in me. On other hand, Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield might find it even harder.

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I agree maybe it's time for Bournemouth to struggle as well? It is going to be tough but we only need to be better than 3 teams and I think that's possible. I do worry about injuries as I don't see any strength in depth. 5 points from the first 7 imo will be very very disappointing

 

[Left Back]

The tracker is out!

The run up for the new season starts NOW!

 

[FatSuperman]

Yes yes yes yes yes

 

[Stat Brother]

If we do come out of those first seven games with just 5 points its not going to get easier any time soon, with a heavily-strengthened West Ham side followed by a long trip to Newcastle, a widely-tipped wolves side and then a difficult game at Everton. The subsequent cardiff away becomes huge, as does Leicester at home the week after.

Premier league feels very hard this year, but that's the pessimist in me. On other hand, Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield might find it even harder.

Sent from my GT-I8262 using Tapatalk

:

I can understand the likes of palace fans pissing their panties over a heavily-strengthened West Ham side because that's their 'buy high - sell low' mentality.
But we shouldn't have to explain, to fellow Albion fans, the fact that it's always 'quality over quantity'.

 

[BBassic]

That would be a good tracker for someone else to do, are you up for it?

I'm working on this. Simple variance from this season to last though I might also do a comparison on the results against the teams we played last year too.

 

[Fungus]

 

[Bold Seagull]

I get what you are saying but it's still a bit silly.

It is, but it was also a surprisingly good barometer last season and did help to put runs of results in perspective. A bit like a run chase graph in cricket, you can fall behind, get ahead, but the only thing that matters is the runs at the end.

 

[Falmer Flutter ©]

Only 3pts projected from 4 December to 29 January! That'll test the bladder of some of the bed-wetters.

 

[Machiavelli]

Would have been interesting to include a column showing the result from last season!

Well, I've been thinking of starting a parallel tracker based on last year's results (with the relegated three replaced with the promoted three). I don't have the relevant digitial graphical skills to do so but, if anyone is so minded, please go ahead.

 

[Bold Seagull]

If we do come out of those first seven games with just 5 points its not going to get easier any time soon, with a heavily-strengthened West Ham side followed by a long trip to Newcastle, a widely-tipped wolves side and then a difficult game at Everton. The subsequent cardiff away becomes huge, as does Leicester at home the week after.

Premier league feels very hard this year, but that's the pessimist in me. On other hand, Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield might find it even harder.

I agree maybe it's time for Bournemouth to struggle as well? It is going to be tough but we only need to be better than 3 teams and I think that's possible. I do worry about injuries as I don't see any strength in depth. 5 points from the first 7 imo will be very very disappointing

I think the whole point of this exercise and why people like it is that it does point out these tough periods and how hard it is to catch up thereafter; a sort of run rate as we go. Any run of 5 games or so where we don't get 1ppg or above will be disappointing as it was last season, but it is also about not panicking – which to be honest, you two appear to already be making a good fist of and we're not out of July!

 

[Brovion]

I get what you are saying but it's still a bit silly.

It is actually the complete opposite of silly, it gives a very good guide. If we play Man City, Man U, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool we won't expect to get as many points as playing say Watford, Woves, Fulham, Cardiff and Bournemouth. Yes we will hopefully beat a top six team again - just as we'll probably lose at home to someone like Leicester again. The graph simply shows where,all other things being equal, we are likely to gain points and where we're not.

HTH

 

[Triggaaar]

Only 3pts projected from 4 December to 29 January! That'll test the bladder of some of the bed-wetters.

I'd like to get it out the way, so I'm going to go and piss on the mattress now.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

:

I can understand the likes of palace fans pissing their panties over a heavily-strengthened West Ham side because that's their 'buy high - sell low' mentality.
But we shouldn't have to explain, to fellow Albion fans, the fact that it's always 'quality over quantity'.

I'm not pissing my panties young man, but I do think that West Ham's signings, including the manager, fall squarely into the 'quality' bracket