[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

[dibsy]

Updated chart. No need for bed wetting yet.

And relax... October is a big month! I'll be well happy if we have 12 points at the end of it.

 

[KingKev]

I track progress vs last season. On that basis we are 4 points behind (Watford 1, SPurs 1, Fulham / WBA 2). Nothing to worry about just yet - we’ve played 4 of the current top 7 and aren’t bottom 3 - but we need to turn some of last season’s home draws against mid-table sides into wins and / or start to pick up away points more regularly...

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I track progress vs last season. On that basis we are 4 points behind (Watford 1, SPurs 1, Fulham / WBA 2). Nothing to worry about just yet - we’ve played 4 of the current top 7 and aren’t bottom 3 - but we need to turn some of last season’s home draws against mid-table sides into wins and / or start to pick up away points more regularly...

Let's pair Fulham with Stoke - it'll come out better at -2.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION] Great work but can I make a suggestion for the addition of 2 columns. The first with the points from the corresponding fixture last year (substituting the relegated clubs with promoted as per their positions). And the other with the difference between this year and last year with totals at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

This should give a more accurate comparison of how well we are doing v last season in terms of the points achieved against each club

Edit
Just seen [MENTION=25402]Blue Valkyrie[/MENTION] post and I guess this would reflect what he does and I think useful to see

 

[giveusfalmerplease]

Love this - great stuff. Would it be worth adding a line to the graph showing last season's comparison as well perhaps ? Also not liking the look of Mid-Dec to end Jan.....3 points from 9 games expected - going to be a tough few weeks watching

Ah but counter that with the 9 matches after man city (up to game before chelsea) only match in those 9 i wouldnt think we might win is Everton - aways against newcastle, cardiff, hudds and burnley )on this years form not last years) ALL winnable - Now thats confidence in a team thats only won twice away in nearly a year!..

 

[Weststander]

So here we go again.

Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker last season.

The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that all close season, and yes last season we didn't quite need it but it has happened and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to Newcastle as we don't play ourselves).

So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked last season in that we tracked close to this or there or thereabouts, doing slightly better early on, slightly worse in the middle and finishing close enough.

So here it is for the coming season:

- First seven games yield just five points, NSC goes into meltdown.
- 15 games in a massive drubbing of Palace sees us looking up the table not down.
- we then go 9 games without a win and edge towards the relegation zone by the end of January.
- a MASSIVE March sees us take 10 points from 4 games to edge towards safety
- 7 points in the last 6 games edges us over the line.

All sounds very familiar doesn't it.

Still on track.

With routine wins in relatively easier games coming up against West Ham and Wolves coming up, we'll be sitting pretty come the end of September.

 

[Triggaaar]

Update pretty please
[MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]

 

[Giraffe]

Here you go, game 8 update, and its all still on par with the last five games now as predicted. As I said in my last post October and November is the litmus test for our season I believe.

The graphs are still tracking just staying up and Europe. No divergence until Everton away.

 

[LlcoolJ]

As mentioned previously, the blue line REALLY needs to be on top. It's a minor quibble but it's doing my NUT in. Thanks.

 

[Giraffe]

As mentioned previously, the blue line REALLY needs to be on top. It's a minor quibble but it's doing my NUT in. Thanks.

Noted and done.

 

[Giraffe]

Interesting using the methodology Palace are 3 points behind their tracker before today's tricky game against Wolves. Almost makes today a must win with a dreadful run of games coming up.

 

[LlcoolJ]

Interesting using the methodology Palace are 3 points behind their tracker before today's tricky game against Wolves. Almost makes today a must win with a dreadful run of games coming up.

Come on Wolves. Tricky run of fixtures for Palace.... until Man United away of course.

 

[spence]

Come on Wolves. Tricky run of fixtures for Palace.... until Man United away of course.

They haven't beaten Utd since the 70's in the league i believe.

 

[LlcoolJ]

They haven't beaten Utd since the 70's in the league i believe.

Irrelevant with how completely shit The Scum are at present. Every team must be looking forward to playing them.

Much as I despise them, I really hope they sort it out and beat Newcastle today. Although it makes me feel a bit sick to write that.

 

[jonny.rainbow]

Irrelevant with how completely shit The Scum are at present. Every team must be looking forward to playing them.

Much as I despise them, I really hope they sort it out and beat Newcastle today. Although it makes me feel a bit sick to write that.

The scum aren’t playing Newcastle today though?

 

[LlcoolJ]

The scum aren’t playing Newcastle today though?

Yes they are. Palace are far lower than scum.

 

[Giraffe]

Interesting using the methodology Palace are 3 points behind their tracker before today's tricky game against Wolves. Almost makes today a must win with a dreadful run of games coming up.

Palace now on minus 6. Shame.

 

[dazzer6666]

Here you go, game 8 update, and its all still on par with the last five games now as predicted. As I said in my last post October and November is the litmus test for our season I believe.

The graphs are still tracking just staying up and Europe. No divergence until Everton away.

Great stuff. How wet will the sheets be if we follow this pattern and only win 1 in 14 I wonder........

 

[Sheebo]

Palace now on minus 6. Shame.

If be amazed if they get no points over the next 6 games. They always flukely land on their feet. I really hope you bounce this after those 6 games and tell me I was wrong!

 

[saafend_seagull]

Interesting using the methodology Palace are 3 points behind their tracker before today's tricky game against Wolves. Almost makes today a must win with a dreadful run of games coming up.

Lol and now predictor has six straight defeats. Can’t see that happening if zaha stays fit.


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