[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

[Giraffe]

Yeah, about that point away at Wolves we need to get...

Still 3 ahead of 40 points at the moment, we can afford not to get that point and still be comfortable on 42 points. Stay dry.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Yeah, about that point away at Wolves we need to get...

Which we don't to stay on track, to get 40 we need 7 points and for survival I'd wager we need 2 pts

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

Which we don't to stay on track, to get 40 we need 7 points and for survival I'd wager we need 2 pts

I think we'll need 38 points at least. Cardiff are going for it in a way we aren't and I think they can get ten more points - beating us (oh yes they will), Fulham and Palace and drawing at Burnley. So we need five more, preferably six to compensate for our goal difference getting worse. Beat Bournemouth and Newcastle and the job is done, but PLB always seem to get something from us, so I'm counting on no more than a point in that one. That would make a point at Wolves a must, despite our habit of leaving our hearts at Pyecombe services.

 

[Turkey]

1, I suspect that two draws in our next two home games will secure survival. Two defeats in those games will mean that Newcastle becomes a must win game, and even that might not be enough. In other words, survival total will be somewhere between 34/5-37 in my view. I suspect the spread bet companies won't be too far away than that.
2, [MENTION=5]Turkey[/MENTION] has been doing a very helpful tracker of teams in and around us. In short, Cardiff are way below their total, but will await the update.

Leicester +6
West Ham +6
Everton +5
Southampton +5
Bournemouth +4
Newcastle +3
Albion +3
Palace +1
Burnley -3
-----
Cardiff -7
Fulham -15 (R)
Huddersfield - 22 (R)

 

[Jim in the West]

I think we'll need 38 points at least. Cardiff are going for it in a way we aren't and I think they can get ten more points - beating us (oh yes they will), Fulham and Palace and drawing at Burnley. So we need five more, preferably six to compensate for our goal difference getting worse. Beat Bournemouth and Newcastle and the job is done, but PLB always seem to get something from us, so I'm counting on no more than a point in that one. That would make a point at Wolves a must, despite our habit of leaving our hearts at Pyecombe services.

I agree Cardiff are going for it more than us - but that doesn't mean they will be successful. I may live to regret saying this, but they don't have much quality, and can easily get exposed. For example, if they "go for it" against Palace they risk being picked off by Zaha/Townsend and crew (even if Zaha seems to miss 10 sitters a game). I also think Burnley will absolutely be up for it, and they have a lot more quality than Cardiff. Having said that, the games they could easily get 6 points from are Fulham and....us!

 

[LVGull]

I think only the first week of our first Premiership game v Man City (why it feels it doesn't count to me) I think the away Watford Draw took us out the following week.

Hang on I think we played Leicester away as well and lost there as well 0-2. So may have been two weeks in the bottom 3.

Is it the premiership or premier league? I often get confused

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I think we'll need 38 points at least. Cardiff are going for it in a way we aren't and I think they can get ten more points - beating us (oh yes they will), Fulham and Palace and drawing at Burnley. So we need five more, preferably six to compensate for our goal difference getting worse. Beat Bournemouth and Newcastle and the job is done, but PLB always seem to get something from us, so I'm counting on no more than a point in that one. That would make a point at Wolves a must, despite our habit of leaving our hearts at Pyecombe services.

Can't see Cardiff getting more than six points and they have six games, teams at our part of the table tend to average a point a game, I feel confident that 35 points will do it.

 

[Giraffe]

Leicester +6
West Ham +6
Everton +5
Southampton +5
Bournemouth +4
Newcastle +3
Albion +3
Palace +1
Burnley -3
-----
Cardiff -7
Fulham -15 (R)
Huddersfield - 22 (R)

Burnley v Cardiff is a massive game.

If Cardiff win that would take them to -4 and Burnley to minus 6. Even a draw puts Burnley on -5 and Cardiff on -6. Massive massive game.

And as this shows, I still fancy us to finish above Palace.

 

[Bold Seagull]

I agree Cardiff are going for it more than us - but that doesn't mean they will be successful. I may live to regret saying this, but they don't have much quality, and can easily get exposed. For example, if they "go for it" against Palace they risk being picked off by Zaha/Townsend and crew (even if Zaha seems to miss 10 sitters a game). I also think Burnley will absolutely be up for it, and they have a lot more quality than Cardiff. Having said that, the games they could easily get 6 points from are Fulham and....us!

Last 6 games:
Cardiff P6 W1 D0 L5 F4 A14 Pts 3 (note 4 of those 6 were at home)
Brighton P6 W2 D0 L4 F5 A10 Pts 6

They're really going for it more than us...

 

[Giraffe]

Last 6 games:
Cardiff P6 W1 D0 L5 F4 A14 Pts 3 (note 4 of those 6 were at home)
Brighton P6 W2 D0 L4 F5 A10 Pts 6

They're really going for it more than us...

I'd also add they have only got 8 points away all season. They are worse than us away from home. So that's pretty bad.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Southampton losing twice to Cardiff this season gives me no joy when looking at the table.

 

[Machiavelli]

I'd also add they have only got 8 points away all season. They are worse than us away from home. So that's pretty bad.

Can I add to that that they've only got two remaining home games. Surprised [MENTION=10202]Not Andy Naylor[/MENTION] is joining in the gloom. So surprised that I'll have a wager on the Cardiff ten point prediction. Winnings to REMF if needs be. But I'd note, he'd get far better odds off the bookies (not even having checked).

 

[Stato]

I think we'll need 38 points at least. Cardiff are going for it in a way we aren't and I think they can get ten more points - beating us (oh yes they will), Fulham and Palace and drawing at Burnley. So we need five more, preferably six to compensate for our goal difference getting worse. Beat Bournemouth and Newcastle and the job is done, but PLB always seem to get something from us, so I'm counting on no more than a point in that one. That would make a point at Wolves a must, despite our habit of leaving our hearts at Pyecombe services.

Cardiff may have been going for it, but they have three points from their last six matches. That's actually worse than us. Your suggestion that they will go from getting 0.5 points per game over the last 6 to getting 1.67 over the next six seems pessimistic.

Cardiff average nothing from games against the top six this season
1.27 per game from the rest of their games,
Twenty of their 28 points have come from home games.
They average 0.53 points from each away game and 1.18 from home games.
4 of their remaining six games are away.
Unless they improve their points return, they are likely to get nothing from the Liverpool and United games, a total of 1-2 points from their three away games and 1-3 from the remaining home game.
They need to make a significant improvement on their current return to even get get the 5 points they need to catch one of the three teams immediately above them.
There is a possibility that we are already safe. It's unlikely, but actually seems less unlikely than Cardiff taking 10 points from their last six games.

 

[dazzer6666]

Cardiff may have been going for it, but they have three points from their last six matches. That's actually worse than us. Your suggestion that they will go from getting 0.5 points per game over the last 6 to getting 1.67 over the next six seems pessimistic.

Cardiff average nothing from games against the top six this season
1.27 per game from the rest of their games,
Twenty of their 28 points have come from home games.
They average 0.53 points from each away game and 1.18 from home games.
4 of their remaining six games are away.
Unless they improve their points return, they are likely to get nothing from the Liverpool and United games, a total of 1-2 points from their three away games and 1-3 from the remaining home game.
They need to make a significant improvement on their current return to even get get the 5 points they need to catch one of the three teams immediately above them.
There is a possibility that we are already safe. It's unlikely, but actually seems less unlikely than Cardiff taking 10 points from their last six games.

This. Cardiff essentially need an absolute minimum of 6 points from 6 games to survive (barring a GD disaster for one of the other teams on 33 points), to do that they need a massive improvement on their form this season to date, particularly bearing in mind their run-in and % of away games left. That’s why they’re overwhelming favourites to go down (1/7 best price).

Will still be squeaky bum time if they beat us though [emoji15][emoji15]

 

[banjo]

Quick update. Nothing changed, including Hughton's away tactics

Still on track.

 

[Weststander]

Incredible, 2 wins all year, and still on track.

 

[Djmiles]

Still on track.

View attachment 107614

That requires beating Cardiff and Newcastle. NOT going to happen

 

[Giraffe]

Not the best day at the office! But now level par. Tuesday massive etc etc.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dibsy]

I really liked this but I'm not sure the points have come from where we expected this season. 17 times the tracker has got it right and 15 times it's been wrong. It has calmed me many times when I have been worried by a bad run but I have lost a little bit of faith in it I'm afraid. If I had laid a bet on the tracker's predictions I wonder if I would be in profit or loss ?

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

We'll finish on 36 points and stay up