[Albion] To avoid bed wetting - the staying up tracker - 2018-19 Game 36 update - 5 below

[Machiavelli]

If you look at the tracker it does show why we should all calm down a little bit - We are 4 points ahead on the tracker and that gives us a little breathing space, but not much. In order to stay on the tracker we need to win five home games in a row later in the season and go on a run of only one defeat in eight games - when was the last time we won five home games on the trot in the top division? I suspect we have never done it. What we do have, is some winnable games before that (starting with Saturday) where we can build that buffer some more. I am thrilled with where we are, and if we can keep stretching that gap I might stop looking over our shoulders - but not yet!

That's presupposing that the tracker is right in thinking that 40 is the survival points total. If you really think that's the case, go large with a spread betting company. The total is far likelier to be nearer 30 than 40.

 

[dazzer6666]

That's presupposing that the tracker is right in thinking that 40 is the survival points total. If you really think that's the case, go large with a spread betting company. The total is far likelier to be nearer 30 than 40.

Absolutely this. Won’t be anywhere near 40.

 

[Gazwag]

4 points doesn't sound much but it you look at it another way we are already into February

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Three points from the next NINE games? There'll be more than that, Shirley?

 

[LlcoolJ]

Absolutely this. Won’t be anywhere near 40.

Agree. This was the table after 15 games last season and (can't remember) but wasn't about 36 enough in the end - just checked and Saints stayed up on 36 but 34 would actually have done it.

1. Manchester City 43 (36)

2. Manchester United 35 (26)

3. Chelsea 32 (16)

4. Liverpool 29 (14)

5. Arsenal 28 (10)

6. Tottenham Hotspur 25 (10)

7. Burnley 25 (2)

8. Watford 22 (-1)

9. Leicester City 20 (0)

10. Everton 18 (-9)

11. Southampton 17 (-3)

12. Brighton & Hove Albion 17 (-5)

13. Stoke City 16 (-12)

14. Bournemouth 15 (-4)

15. Newcastle United 15 (-8)

16. Huddersfield Town 15 (-17)

17. West Bromwich Albion 13 (-9)

18. Crystal Palace 10 (-17)

19. West Ham United 10 (-19)

20. Swansea City 9 (-10)

It will be nowhere near 40 points this season. FACT!

 

[Turkey]

This is how we compare to those below us in the table:

West Ham +6
Wolves +6
Brighton +4
Watford +4
Newcastle -2
C. Palace -2
Cardiff -4
Southampton -4
Burnley -6
Fulham -6
Huddersfield -8

 

[Giraffe]

Still 4 points ahead of relegation tracker, now one point below Europe.

 

[redoubtable seagull]

That’s quite a run of difficult games until the end of Jan. It is feasible that our points could be the same or thereabouts as the tracker target when we approach the Watford game in early Feb.

 

[Stat Brother]

That’s quite a run of difficult games until the end of Jan. It is feasible that our points could be the same or thereabouts as the tracker target when we approach the Watford game in early Feb.

At which point we'll still be +1, even if we lose all those games.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

This is how we compare to those below us in the table:

West Ham +6
Wolves +6
Brighton +4
Watford +4
Newcastle -2
C. Palace -2
Cardiff -4
Southampton -4
Burnley -6
Fulham -6
Huddersfield -8

With 7 teams behind target, the target must be too high ?

Which puts us in an even better position.

 

[macbeth]

Yes, if the tracker is right it could be a while till we see our next win. I'm looking forward to the online meltdown

 

[Official Old Man]

Europe. A quick 'we could/should win that game' puts us on 55 points. A bit far fetched I know but that would be in the July Europa League play-off games. No Thanks!

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

That’s quite a run of difficult games until the end of Jan. It is feasible that our points could be the same or thereabouts as the tracker target when we approach the Watford game in early Feb.

Blimey mate, or we could sneak a point, or two, and be WELL ahead of the tracker. Nothing away at Bournemouth or Home to Everton, not even a squeak at a point away at Fulham or West Ham, crikey life's not that bad, is it?

 

[Titanic]

5 home wins out of 6 in the run-in... that is going to be a HUGE ask.

#notoutoftroubleyet

 

[redoubtable seagull]

Blimey mate, or we could sneak a point, or two, and be WELL ahead of the tracker. Nothing away at Bournemouth or Home to Everton, not even a squeak at a point away at Fulham or West Ham, crikey life's not that bad, is it?

Sneaking a point or two or three between now and the end of Jan will put us on the same points or thereabouts of the tracker. Kind of the point was making really.

 

[Turkey]

Saints, Palace and Newcastle all fall further behind target this past weekend.

Wolves +8
West Ham +6
Watford +5
Brighton +4
C. Palace -3
Cardiff -4
Newcastle -5
Southampton -5
Burnley -6
Fulham -6
Huddersfield -8

 

[casbom]

March appears to be the pivotal month, targetted to get 10 pts from those 4 games, including the game at Selhurst.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

January transfer window will be key, will we see any of the SEVEN, yes SEVEN clubs below us spend to secure Premier League or will there be an acceptance of their fate?

The less optimistic of you are concerned at how many wins we still need from the remaining 22 games, whereas a Fulham or Southampton fan would be thinking we've got to win FOUR just to catch Brighton. We are in a superb position we need about .6 of a point per game, or rather one win every FIVE games to get to 32, which will be safe IMHO.

I really do think the club and team need more recognition for the superb job done so far which seven clubs would snatch our hands off for, keep the faith and UTA,

 

[warmleyseagull]

January transfer window will be key, will we see any of the SEVEN, yes SEVEN clubs below us spend to secure Premier League or will there be an acceptance of their fate?

The less optimistic of you are concerned at how many wins we still need from the remaining 22 games, whereas a Fulham or Southampton fan would be thinking we've got to win FOUR just to catch Brighton. We are in a superb position we need about .6 of a point per game, or rather one win every FIVE games to get to 32, which will be safe IMHO.

I really do think the club and team need more recognition for the superb job done so far which seven clubs would snatch our hands off for, keep the faith and UTA,

Exactly - bedwetters tend to forget a few things: a) nearly all bottom 14, including the non relegation candidates have at least one bad run per season (eg recently Bmuff 4 defeats on spin; Wolves 7 games without win, both now corrected); b) the influence of the fixture list; Albion are one of only 6 PL sides to have played only 7 home games or fewer (Spurs 6) and two of those against top 6. Cardiff have played 9 at home (as have Newcastle, Hammers, Bournemouth, Everton, Chelsea & Arsenal), including a lot of sides in lower half. Albion are playing teams above them for next 7 and could quite conceivably lose the lot. But then have a run of fixtures that could easily be worth 5-6 wins and comfortable safety; c) no team with 20+ points or more after 16 has been relegated in recent seasons.

 

[dazzer6666]

5 home wins out of 6 in the run-in... that is going to be a HUGE ask.

#notoutoftroubleyet

Except we won't need 5 wins by then.

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