Conkers
Well-known member
I think Uncle is rattled by the new kid on the block
Still the 'kid' has a 100% tip rate
And Uncle, where is this Snowstorm of the Century that you tipped late last year?
Yeah, I had £50 on it at 5/1. Red hot tip wasn't it?
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Tip - Red Hot
- Thread starter Scanny
- Start date
Yeah, I had £50 on it at 5/1. Red hot tip wasn't it?
clippedgull
Hotdogs, extra onions
Eh?
If the true odds were, say, 1/7 then it's a value tip at that price.
In the same way a 10/1 tip is not value unless the true odds of success are 9/1 or better.
That's actually what I'm saying (albeit rather badly). Basically, I'm suspicious that a 2/7 bet can possibly be offering any value since those are incredibly short odds to start with.
Well obviously. But the thing is, before the start of the race you don't know which of the two horses are going to win.
What I am trying to explain is that I want value from a bet. I'd happily bet on Liverpool winning the league at the start of the season if I could get 100/1 on it. Obviously I wouldn't expect them to do it, but the chances of them doing it are better than 100/1.
In your example, a horse priced at 2/7 is already priced as a red, red hot favourite. Therefore it's unlikely thats true odds are actually better than the 2/7 quoted by the bookies. Therefore, not good value.
Great for you that it won though I suppose.
Brighton till i die
You havin' a bubble?
a tip is exactly that - a fuckin tip - new boy let everyone know - it won, and now some people are moaning - f*** sake - if every 2/7 won, people would be betting £100k plus on every race....
...sounds like US is rattled - LARGE!
Cheers for the tip new boy - just wish i'd put some wedge on it!
...sounds like US is rattled - LARGE!
Cheers for the tip new boy - just wish i'd put some wedge on it!
clippedgull
Hotdogs, extra onions
Easy 10
Brain dead MUG SHEEP
I wouldn't bother with a 2/7 shot, same as I don't bother including those kind of odds in an accumulator, as the risk of it going tits up barely warrants the small reward if it comes in.
Bet there were a few people stung on those 1/4 odds for the Patriots.
Bet there were a few people stung on those 1/4 odds for the Patriots.
Scanny
New member
- Thread starter
- #51
a tip is exactly that - a fuckin tip - new boy let everyone know - it won, and now some people are moaning - f*** sake - if every 2/7 won, people would be betting £100k plus on every race....
...sounds like US is rattled - LARGE!
Cheers for the tip new boy - just wish i'd put some wedge on it!
Sounds like you and a lot of others know what you are talking about.
Simster/Uncle, its a tip.
If its too short for you, don't back it, move onto another thread.
They would indeed. But 2/7 horses don't always come in. That's why it's called BETTING.
Brighton till i die
You havin' a bubble?
They would indeed. But 2/7 horses don't always come in. That's why it's called BETTING.
so the kid has done well to TIP a horse that WON yeah...?
1
1066gull
Guest
I would never bet on racing that large.
Not after I bet on f***ing Newcastle all my winnings last week.
Not after I bet on f***ing Newcastle all my winnings last week.
brighton_haha
New member
- Feb 8, 2008
- 277
You can hardly expect them to "move onto another thread" just because they do not wish to take up your bet.
That said, a winner is a winner - I no nothing about horses but I'd happily take a tip or two on (someone in HH would need to put the bet on for me as I don't no one bet from another) !
crodonilson
He/Him
I've had a pony on it.
seagullsovergrimsby
#cpfctinpotclub
I thought you were going to give up gambling, 1066 . Its a mugs game. As you haven't got any winnings are you now eating Pot Noodle ?
maffew
Well-known member
2/7 is not a red hot tip
yes it a tip, its also a red hot favourite, its 2/7 for a reason, not exactly inside information
keep em coming though
yes it a tip, its also a red hot favourite, its 2/7 for a reason, not exactly inside information
keep em coming though
Hannibal smith
New member
Only yesterday Speilberg was tipping 1/100. We can argue about whether 2/7 is value or not but its taking the piss to suggest 1/100 is and more than a bit rich to say its not value after the thing has WON by 20 lengths. Especially when a 71 year old man who could die at any minute is considered a 'safe' bet.
http://www.northstandchat.biz/showthread.php?t=118850&highlight=MCCAIN
Scanny keep em coming.
TSB
Captain Hindsight
He was doing it ironically though, to be fair!