[News] There's no need to panic buy petrol

[Fat Boy Fat]

I don’t think these shortages are going away any time soon, in fact I hear Chris Rea has already started walking home for Christmas.

 

[The Wookiee]

Quick update on the western side of Worthing. Petrol stations by Goring bridge, Boulevard, North Star and both Findon sites all empty - Goring Bridge took a delivery this morning and all gone by the evening.

Esso on A27 at Swandean has Diesel only.

Tesco West Durrington had fuel as at 8:15 and minimal queues.

Went to Co-Op at The Boulevard this morning at 7:40 - straight in, no queues

 

[Deleted member 22389]

I don’t think these shortages are going away any time soon, in fact I hear Chris Rea has already started walking home for Christmas.

It is down South

 

[Deleted member 37369]

Salt Farm roundabout (Shell?) garage, Shoreham is open for fuel and no queue if anyone is in need. Just been past and all going smoothly by the look of it.

Mate of mine was there just after 8.30pm - they did have fuel but only the expensive V-Power 99 octane stuff. My mate was happy with that as he was desperate for anything - but there were other people going in and seeing the price - or maybe they didn't understand they could use it - and driving straight out without putting any in.

A chap at the garage told my mate he expected to run out completely by 9pm.

 

[southstandandy]

Asda in Newcastle - no queues at all.

 

[Official Old Man]

We're off on our 'staycation' this weekend up north. Spoke to the hotel owner where we are staying and she questioned this fuel shortage. No problems here she said. All I've got to do though is get there.

 

[beorhthelm]

theres something afoot with Johnson giving out very specific detail about numbers of HGV drivers applying.

i dont believe the driver shortage is what it seems. its based on how many vacancies the industry have listed, thats how many they'd like to have to expand, change or replace drivers etc. not necessarily how many they need for normal operations.

 

[Bozza]

i dont believe the driver shortage is what it seems. its based on how many vacancies the industry have listed, thats how many they'd like to have to expand, change or replace drivers etc. not necessarily how many they need for normal operations.

Along the same lines, I was thinking it strange how, if there is a shortage of 100,000 HGV drivers, the effects had not been apparent to the man-in-the-street until relatively recently and, even then, only on a very minor scale.

So, when we were, say, 10,000 short, 30,000 short, 50,000 short and 80,000 short - given this has been a rising number over a period of years - no-one would have known based on availability of goods and the like. It feels to me as if it's only really been the last few months where there has been some empty shelves, which then brought the driver shortage into the mainstream.

We know HGV drivers can't work extra hours, or many extra hours, due to health and safety rules around driving hours, so the shortfall could not have been fully compensated for in that way.

 

[amexer]

Petrol at Pycombe today Tates and M & S

 

[nickbrighton]

Along the same lines, I was thinking it strange how, if there is a shortage of 100,000 HGV drivers, the effects had not been apparent to the man-in-the-street until relatively recently and, even then, only on a very minor scale.

So, when we were, say, 10,000 short, 30,000 short, 50,000 short and 80,000 short - given this has been a rising number over a period of years - no-one would have known based on availability of goods and the like. It feels to me as if it's only really been the last few months where there has been some empty shelves, which then brought the driver shortage into the mainstream.

We know HGV drivers can't work extra hours, or many extra hours, due to health and safety rules around driving hours, so the shortfall could not have been fully compensated for in that way.

I think its a case of the 100 000 would be every vacancy filled, a situation that you rarely get in any industry ever, due to the ongoing turn around for people leaving, retiring , or whatever reason. I have no idea in HGV drivers, but I think you can usually count about 10% at anyone time. In all the places I have worked I have never known there not to be a number of vacancies at any given time

I think what has happened now is that up to relatively recently the shortages haven't been apparent as the industry has managed to keep up just. We have all been to supermarkets and seen empty aisles for years when a delivery is late, we think nothing of it, and just nip to another shop to get any missing items. The next delivery turns up and shelves are full. Looking back over the past year or so, that situation has occurred a little more frequently., not enough to really notice.

Now, due to various reasons, brexit, covid, general drift away from people joining, people unable to take tests etc , the shortage has meant that its not the occasional delivery that is missing, its more frequent and more widespread

Its like a hole in a boat, all the time you can empty the water quicker than it comes in, or at least keep pace, there really isnt a visible problem to anyone not directly involved in the bailing out, however as soon as the leak increases to more than can be bailed, even if it a small amount the boat starts filling up, becoming more and more apparent and quite quickly, so it appears the leak has just occurred whereas in reality the crew have been working all out for ages.. Simplistic analogy yes , but I think accurate

The fuel situation is a very good example of this, no one really noticed that a few stations were closed occasionally, everyone could get fuel at the next. However, deliveries were just keeping pace with useage, as soon as more was being used than delivered, there was simply not enough tanker drivers to keep pace, and so one by one the stations closed.

Its why its taking so long to refuel, there is probably only a little over normal use capacity to deliver and there is a huge number of stations without the stock fuel to meet demand

Fuel however is not something easily stored at home, so once people have the fuel, they can only take what they have used so demand returns to normal, or under normal as people who have it don't need to take excess., and delivery catches up, and even the extra 100 military can make a bigger difference than would on the face of it be the case

 

[WATFORD zero]

From what I can find, it the numbers of HGV drivers appears to have bounced around 300,000 to 330,000 from 2016 until early 2020. Between April and June 2020 it went below 300,000 and has carried on downwards to 236,000 by Mar 2021. And I can't think of any reason why that would have reversed over the last 6 months, which probably means the number is significantly lower today.

I would guess that the lockdowns would have covered the effects initially with just about everything except supermarkets closed, but now the economy is picking up again, the demand has gone up. Maybe that's why we haven't seen any real effects up until the last few weeks

I'm guessing this may also be the basis for the 100,000 figure.

Also from Government stats, the numbers of HGV drivers from 2009, when the recession hit

2009 - 320,000
2013 - 259,000
2015 - 299,000

I'm not sure that this particularly backs up the 'underlying reduction for the last 10 years' narrative

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/546346/domestic-road-freight-statistics-2015.pdf

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Have held off until today- need a tank of fuel for the weekend.

Hove update at 0645 /0700 today (Tues)

Sainsburys- closed- someone said they are now only open 10pm to 6am to avoid creating traffic jams.

Tesco Holmbush- have fuel but are closed due to an electrical fault

Texaco Old Shoreham Rd- closed with ‘no fuel’ signs up

BP seafront- no fuel

Texaco on Hangleton Road - has fuel! Premium unleaded and diesel. Said they opened at 6am, had a delivery overnight, which will probably last until 6pm. I managed to get in with 5 mins queue but it had grown by the time I left.

Premium unleaded was £1.40 per litre.

Thank you - in and out in 30 mins. So now Mrs WS and I can still go away for our romantic weekend to Whistable and the Sportsman.

Still wankers filling loads of jerry cans though - selfish *****. And yes GP19 FCU - I'm refering to you !

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Thank you - in and out in 30 mins. So now Mrs WS and I can still go away for our romantic weekend to Whisable and the Sportsman.

Still wankers filling loads of jerry cans though - selfish *****. And yes GP19 FCU - I'm refering to you !

Great news. Hope you have a good weekend. I'm off to Silverstone circuit to do a half marathon (Sunday), weather is meant to be decent so should be a nice day. Maybe need some Murray Walker commentary on my earphones for motivation..

 

[beorhthelm]

this is an interesting review from the Grocer https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-...we-cant-blame-it-all-on-brexit/659841.article

reckons there's 230k HGV licence holders under 45 not working in haulage. thats nearly as many as working in industy across all ages. doesnt make sense really.

and back to fuel delivery, thats a subset presumbly a few hundred nationally, into double figures in the south east where this problem is focused.

 

[CheeseRolls]

this is an interesting review from the Grocer https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-...we-cant-blame-it-all-on-brexit/659841.article

reckons there's 230k HGV licence holders under 45 not working in haulage. thats nearly as many as working in industy across all ages. doesnt make sense really.

and back to fuel delivery, thats a subset presumbly a few hundred nationally, into double figures in the south east where this problem is focused.

It does though. HGV implies and includes long distance driving. For those with young families sleeping away in your cab is not exactly enticing, when there is an alternative.

This does not necessarily apply to driving fuel lorries, but the available drivers have the pick of the jobs that suit them and maybe the "expensive South -East" is not that attractive.


Home delivery is sucking up demand for drivers, who don't need to stray too far from home to earn a living. It isn't a huge leap of faith to suggest that if home was the other side of Europe, for some drivers sleeping in a cab and getting paid more, might have been the better deal, or indeed that an over all small fall in numbers can mask a bigger problem.

 

[WATFORD zero]

this is an interesting review from the Grocer https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/supply-...we-cant-blame-it-all-on-brexit/659841.article

reckons there's 230k HGV licence holders under 45 not working in haulage. thats nearly as many as working in industy across all ages. doesnt make sense really.

and back to fuel delivery, thats a subset presumbly a few hundred nationally, into double figures in the south east where this problem is focused.

Although I can see reasons why this 'underlying issue over the last 10 years' narrative could be beneficial to both the Logistics Industry and the Government, The Office for National statistics says that we had between 325,000 and 330,000 HGV drivers in Q4 2016 and Q3 2018, the highest number of HGV drivers in the last 10 years.

Unless someone can find Government figures to the contrary, something doesn't add up

 

[portslade seagull]

Where's Eddie Stobart when you need him

 

[beorhthelm]

It does though. HGV implies and includes long distance driving. For those with young families sleeping away in your cab is not exactly enticing, when there is an alternative.

completely get that (know a driver), its more the claimed shortage of HGV drivers. we have a shortage of willing HGV drivers. drivers are going into HGV but not staying around. so we go back to the issues of conditions, long term decline in interest to do the job. what doesnt make so much sense is the claimed 30-50% shortfall in an industry, while more than sufficient trained people are available.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Scrap HS2, use the money from that to develop top notch freight train infrastructure and employ these young HGV drivers to transport the containers etc from their nearest train hub to wherever it needs to go. 2 or 3 short trips per day, home for tea and cake. Sorted.

 

[beorhthelm]

I suspect the government has been banking on self driving HGV's for the past few years, without it ever becoming a reality.

no one can see self driving as a serious option. its good for the long distance and fails utterly for the last portion and site access. it would make "road trains" posible on the motorway network, while we have actual rail network that would do better.