The UK within a whisker of going back into recession 2nd quarter.

[sten_super]

This is all a bit boring now US.

There is ZERO chance of us entering recession in Q2. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and GDP grew by 0.5% in Q1.
NIESR are one think tank, with one view. The general consensus view is that growth will be 0.3% (still not great I grant you).

 

[Ringmer bha]

0.1% growth in 9 months is disasterous.

Or 0.6% growth in 6 months based on what you are saying. Although I may have missed something?

Any growth is good in my very humble opinion. After all we are in the depths of the worst recession in living memory (well, the living memory of most people on here).

This government still largely turn to the same set of advisors as the last government used, which shouldn't be overlooked.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Nobody mentions the stimulus to the economy of the changes the Coalition has brought in about withdrawing benefits from the long-term unemployed. I watched that series "The Fairy Jobmother" with interest as she drummed into her job club members they'd be losing their benefits if they carried on the way they were. These changes will mean UK workers will start to take the sorts of jobs they'd previously refused that were filled by migrants workers.

Similarly, as a result of the cuts there will be a much-needed shift of workers from public sector to private sector.

I agree that the Chinese export market is key, which is precisely why CMD met with the Chinese last week.

A lot of the conditions needed for economic growth are there - low interest rates, low inflation, cheap labour, capital to invest. We just need the banks to start lending again.

 

[RexCathedra]

I think you have to offset the wretched rate of economic growth against the massive spike in virtue and probity that invariably accompanies an austerity regime.

Recessions are caused by a collapse in aggregate virtue, not aggregate demand, and if we're just good enough, dammit, the ewes will lamb again, the cows will calve, the grain will be heavy in the ear, the banks will start lending, and the jobs will come back.

Moral fibre, that's the ticket.

 

[Ringmer bha]

The balance is too severe. I think the British people have all but given up hope now and that is not good. Grant nailed it last night when he said the country needed a boost. We are all ground down. The problem is the coalition have not given even a mere hint that things may get better one day , its just constant gloom and doom and bad news. They should try and give a more positive spin like put up with the pain now and things we lead to a better and brighter future.

I'm going to get dragged in here me thinks.

Don't include me in your 'we are all ground down' statement. Times are hard, but perspective is required. We are bumping along the bottom of a deep cycle. Eventually we will bounce back up again and the cycle will repeat itself. There is a future, you just need to stand back and look at the big picture. I say this as someone who has been effected by this recession, but I still see the road ahead as laden with opportunity. My glass is still, and will always be, half full. If you only see doom and gloom then may I suggest you have a shot at doing all you can to improve the situation for you and those closest to you. There are always positives to be found in almost every crisis you just need to look for them.

 

[Giraffe]

In short, it's still the banks fault. They are just simply not lending. Whilst they may be saying that they are increasing their business, it's going from maybe 5% of what they used to lend to maybe 10%. Simply not enough to support growing businesses. Very few businesses can actively grow without additional funding. The banks need to stimulate the growth.

 

[Napper]

Got to love the tories

 

[Buzzer]

Got to love the tories

That's because we're better in bed.

 

[vegster]

Its so much easier to be the other side of the dispatch box in the Common's throwing accusations than it is to actually get anything done. I have no love for the Tories as they have eroded the rights most ordinary workers have in order to boost " Business".
In real terms, the top 5% of the population have got richer over the last 5 years despite a very obvious recession. I can see this continuing as most of us in the trenches are told to work harder/go without pay rises/accept redundancies while those at the top carry on as nothing has changed.

Overall, David Cameron has had his honeymoon period and things have not significantly improved, in fact, things will get worse as the Gov. cutbacks and cutting of state jobs really gets going next spring.
His appointment of The Screws Andy Coulson has done him no favours and I'm sure he faces a very difficult few years of blaming Labour for all our current ills.

 

[vegster]

I think you have to offset the wretched rate of economic growth against the massive spike in virtue and probity that invariably accompanies an austerity regime.

Recessions are caused by a collapse in aggregate virtue, not aggregate demand, and if we're just good enough, dammit, the ewes will lamb again, the cows will calve, the grain will be heavy in the ear, the banks will start lending, and the jobs will come back.

Moral fibre, that's the ticket.

And, the very stiff upper lip apparent in your avatar ?

 

[Buzzer]

And, the very stiff upper lip?

That certainly helps in becoming a better lover.

 

[xenophon]

 

[beorhthelm]

In short, it's still the banks fault. They are just simply not lending.

true, but too simplistic. firstly, theres plenty of cash around for companies to not need to borrow. secondly, the banks have also been told to increase their capital reserves as part of Basel III, in responce to the crisis. oh, and they are suppose to hold more sovereign bonds in proportion to corporate bonds, because its safer according to the EU (yeah... the ECB is loving all their Greek bonds).

 

[Albumen]

Truely disasterous figures.

The UK’s economic growth slowed down in the three months to June and is too weak to support a hike in the base rate, a leading think tank has warned.


The National Institute of Economic and Social Research says it estimates GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months ending in June, following growth of 0.5% in the three months ending in May.

This would suggest almost 10 months of zero growth in the UK as each increase is largely cancelled out by a contraction or near contraction in the following months.

.The NIESR’s report says: “The effects of one-off events in April have depressed the overall quarterly growth rate. However, even accounting for these factors the underlying rate of growth is still likely to be weak.

“These figures do not provide a picture of economic growth that would support a tightening of monetary policy at this juncture.”

The think tank says it believes the current period of depression, defined as when output is depressed below its previous peak, is likely to continue for some time, while GDP will not surpass its peak reached in early 2008 until 2013.

Source?

 

[RexCathedra]

And, the very stiff upper lip apparent in your avatar ?

Held aloft by fibre. But moral fibre isn't enough. The fibre from whole grains is important, too. And in an emergency any fibre -- old newsprint, the better sorts of sacking, even having a go at the ropes on the children's swing-set -- will do.

 

[Grendel]

The general consensus view is that growth will be 0.3% (still not great I grant you).

Growth of 0.3% is almost SIX TIMES lower than Osbourne predicted in his Budget statement just over 3 months ago. His prediction then of 1.7% growth had already been downgraded twice in less than a year, from 2.3% and then 2.1%. Unless we have an absolutely miraculous final two quarters of the year even his revised, revised prediction is going to be miles off the mark.

 

[sten_super]

Growth of 0.3% is almost SIX TIMES lower than Osbourne predicted in his Budget statement just over 3 months ago. His prediction then of 1.7% growth had already been downgraded twice in less than a year, from 2.3% and then 2.1%. Unless we have an absolutely miraculous final two quarters of the year even his revised, revised prediction is going to be miles off the mark.

His and everyone else's estimates. We were all miles off, because the expected recovery hasn't materialised.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

It wasn't Labour's fault then and it's not the Coalition's fault now. The banks f***ed us up.

People are too scared to spend money on trivial overpriced shit anymore. That's why shops like Habitat and Moben kitchens are going down the pan. Everybody got the big flatscreen telly last year for the World Cup. So the fake spending boost won't be repeated this year. People are paying off their credit card debts and hanging on to whatever cash they have left and won't get fooled again. Well not for a generation or so.

Then you look at the pictures coming out of Africa and realise that our worries and concerns are LESS THAN ZERO compared to theirs.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

So will 0.1% growth in GDP over the last 3 months get re-evaluated to 0% (Q2) when they release the next set of figures for Q3 ?