[Football] The ticking Profit and Sustainability (FFP) timebomb...

[nwgull]

Very interested to see how Villa plays out.

Also interesting that there's likely to be an unofficial transfer window at the end of June with several clubs having to sell by June 30th and a very limited pool of clubs able to buy unhindered by PSR.

I exclude us from this as I don't see us buying a first team player from Villa due to wages. Could see us looking at picking up a prospect though

This is a really good point. Of all the clubs rumoured to be in trouble to the extent of having to make significant profit on a player sale before end of June, Leicester is the only one with players that I can realistically see us matching the wages of.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This is a really good point. Of all the clubs rumoured to be in trouble to the extent of having to make significant profit on a player sale before end of June, Leicester is the only one with players that I can realistically see us matching the wages of.

Even then, i'm not totally convinced.

They were paying a lot more than we were when they got relegated. A player like KDH will likely be thinking, that this is his big career move at age 26 and will be looking for a pay rise.

But this is where the timings for club and player don't marry up.

Let's just say, as expected, Leicester go up, they are in breach of PSR, they need to make £30m by June 30th. We bid £30m at the start of June

Why would the player accept the move? It's surely in his interests to wait and see if a bigger payer, A Spurs for example, are prepared to come in as well. There's still two months of the transfer window open for the player to get their big move.

It's not just Leicester who are in this situation. If Newcastle offer them £40m for Colwill, Chelsea would surely accept, but Colwill is best advised waiting till August to see if Liverpool or Man U come in

To make matters worse, some of the players involved will be off playing international football around then

 

[Super Steve Earle]

Clutching at straws, but some chunky points deductions or even exclusion from Europe for clubs around us might help our own ambitions?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Clutching at straws, but some chunky points deductions or even exclusion from Europe for clubs around us might help our own ambitions?

And will likely be utterly hilarious

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Some payroll cost v income snippets based on last published accounts, years vary due to slower filing by some clubs.

Albion £115m / £167m
CPFC2010 £124m / £160m
Wolves £142m / £169m
Everton £159m / £181m
Leicester £182m / £215m
Villa £194m / £218m
Spuds £205m / £338m

Villa also spent £600m on player fees.

Villa spend on fees/wages like Tottenham, but have the income of Leicester. How’ve they managed this? The owners have financially doped the club with £672m of their money over 5.5 years, most likely far more than that when we see their 2023/24 accounts. Their current PL standing is no Cinderella story.

Villa have a massive squad, they stockpile players for fun.

It should be easy to get that figure down by trimming the squad down quickly.

The Leicester wages don't shock me either as they have sold a lot of players, it had to be wages pushing them over.

Are they wages from pre or post Kane/Mac etc leaving the club?

 

[nwgull]

Even then, i'm not totally convinced.

They were paying a lot more than we were when they got relegated. A player like KDH will likely be thinking, that this is his big career move at age 26 and will be looking for a pay rise.

But this is where the timings for club and player don't marry up.

Let's just say, as expected, Leicester go up, they are in breach of PSR, they need to make £30m by June 30th. We bid £30m at the start of June

Why would the player accept the move? It's surely in his interests to wait and see if a bigger payer, A Spurs for example, are prepared to come in as well. There's still two months of the transfer window open for the player to get their big move.

It's not just Leicester who are in this situation. If Newcastle offer them £40m for Colwill, Chelsea would surely accept, but Colwill is best advised waiting till August to see if Liverpool or Man U come in

To make matters worse, some of the players involved will be off playing international football around then

I don’t think we’d have made a bid for KDH if we’d not made an agreement in principle on wages with his agent. It’s not the way things are supposed to happen, but I think we all know that that’s how they do.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Villa have a massive squad, they stockpile players for fun.

It should be easy to get that figure down by trimming the squad down quickly.

But largely these are players they have bought.

They don't have loads they have bought through to really give them a boost for the purposes of PSR

 

[Acker79]

Is meeting limits this time enough? If, for instance, Chelsea sell Colwill and Gallagher and make the money needed to avoid a failing PSR what would that do for next season? They are on a rolling three year assessment period. How much of the spend carries over? If Chelsea do get away with it this time, is there the risk they think it's easy, continue spending then next year find they don't have enough homegrown players of enough value to make up that short fall?

Would there perhaps be some line of thought of calling other clubs' bluffs and not selling before the end of June for a cut value, then selling for a higher value later in the window so that they are protected for next year's assessment with more leeway going forward due to an larger profit and just swallow a relatively small points deduction? (Something a bigger team would perhaps be more willing to risk - 6 points deduction for a Chelsea would not be as big an issue as 6 points for Forest, so forest won't do it, but Chelsea might? Especially if there are UEFA PSR concerns should they qualify at the end of next season).

I don't evn know if it works that way, just the idea that everyone is going to have a firesale before the end of june seems a foregone conclusion and I was looking to see if there might be a benefit to not going that way.

 

[nwgull]

Villa have a massive squad, they stockpile players for fun.

It should be easy to get that figure down by trimming the squad down quickly.

The Leicester wages don't shock me either as they have sold a lot of players, it had to be wages pushing them over.

Are they wages from pre or post Kane/Mac etc leaving the club?

You talking about trimming Villa’s wages? If so, they are locked in for this season 23/24, and that’s the period they’re going to have trouble with unless they make a late profit on player trading in June.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

But largely these are players they have bought.

They don't have loads they have bought through to really give them a boost for the purposes of PSR

I can see them offloading Jacob Ramsey.

But they have enough players to make a dent in it, plus a couple are only on loan.

FML I've just seen Callum Chambers is still there

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You talking about trimming Villa’s wages? If so, they are locked in for this season 23/24, and that’s the period they’re going to have trouble with unless they make a late profit on player trading in June.

Moving forward it's going to be important to trim the wages down.

They have enough players to flog

 

[Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ]

Is meeting limits this time enough? If, for instance, Chelsea sell Colwill and Gallagher and make the money needed to avoid a failing PSR what would that do for next season? They are on a rolling three year assessment period. How much of the spend carries over? If Chelsea do get away with it this time, is there the risk they think it's easy, continue spending then next year find they don't have enough homegrown players of enough value to make up that short fall?

Would there perhaps be some line of thought of calling other clubs' bluffs and not selling before the end of June for a cut value, then selling for a higher value later in the window so that they are protected for next year's assessment with more leeway going forward due to an larger profit and just swallow a relatively small points deduction? (Something a bigger team would perhaps be more willing to risk - 6 points deduction for a Chelsea would not be as big an issue as 6 points for Forest, so forest won't do it, but Chelsea might? Especially if there are UEFA PSR concerns should they qualify at the end of next season).

I don't evn know if it works that way, just the idea that everyone is going to have a firesale before the end of june seems a foregone conclusion and I was looking to see if there might be a benefit to not going that way.

I think the number of points depends on the amount of over spend, so Chelsea's could be a lot more than 6pts

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I can see them offloading Jacob Ramsey.

For how much? Anyone in mind you think would pay big money for him?

To me, a decent player, but not exactly a star

 

[dazzer6666]

Even then, i'm not totally convinced.

They were paying a lot more than we were when they got relegated. A player like KDH will likely be thinking, that this is his big career move at age 26 and will be looking for a pay rise.

But this is where the timings for club and player don't marry up.

Let's just say, as expected, Leicester go up, they are in breach of PSR, they need to make £30m by June 30th. We bid £30m at the start of June

Why would the player accept the move? It's surely in his interests to wait and see if a bigger payer, A Spurs for example, are prepared to come in as well. There's still two months of the transfer window open for the player to get their big move.

It's not just Leicester who are in this situation. If Newcastle offer them £40m for Colwill, Chelsea would surely accept, but Colwill is best advised waiting till August to see if Liverpool or Man U come in

To make matters worse, some of the players involved will be off playing international football around then

Virtually all the 'bigger' clubs are going to have to be extremely careful how they spend any money (if at all - look at what happened in January) so players like KDH won't necessarily have the same choices they might have done a season or two ago.

Said it before but wouldn't be at all surprised if we find TB/PB have yet again played a blinder, keeping the cash banked ready to exploit some great opportunities in the summer

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

For how much? Anyone in mind you think would pay big money for him?

To me, a decent player, but not exactly a star

They could get 20/30 million easily in the current market

Solid PL player, a HGP to help the numbers.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The other way I look at all this is to ask the question. How many clubs have no PSR / FFP issues at all?

Because it's all very well all these clubs saying they need to sell a player for £30m before July, but the pool of clubs able and willing to spend is very small.

Liverpool? Surely well in the clear. Us of course, but I don't think we'll buy lots of established talent.

Most of the top 6, can't have that much wiggle room. Yes, they are in Champs league, and are commercially big, but have been spending hundreds of millions and not really selling for a long time.

I think transfer fees are going to be very depressed in the summer and the coming years. Due to the small puddle of clubs that have significant wiggle room here.

 

[nwgull]

Virtually all the 'bigger' clubs are going to have to be extremely careful how they spend any money (if at all - look at what happened in January) so players like KDH won't necessarily have the same choices they might have done a season or two ago.

Said it before but wouldn't be at all surprised if we find TB/PB have yet again played a blinder, keeping the cash banked ready to exploit some great opportunities in the summer

The way these financial reports are looking, this clip is an analogy of how I see things going over the next couple of seasons (Brighton are represented by Steve Bradbury):

 

[dazzer6666]

The other way I look at all this is to ask the question. How many clubs have no PSR / FFP issues at all?

Because it's all very well all these clubs saying they need to sell a player for £30m before July, but the pool of clubs able and willing to spend is very small.

Liverpool? Surely well in the clear. Us of course, but I don't think we'll buy lots of established talent.

Most of the top 6, can't have that much wiggle room. Yes, they are in Champs league, and are commercially big, but have been spending hundreds of millions and not really selling for a long time.

I think transfer fees are going to be very depressed in the summer and the coming years. Due to the small puddle of clubs that have significant wiggle room here.

We're a big fish in that small puddle

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

The way these financial reports are looking, this clip is an analogy of how I see things going over the next couple of seasons (Brighton are represented by Steve Bradbury):

This was quite amazing - his victory was our 1st ever Winter Gold.
But incredibly, having just scraped through in the heats, almost exactly the same thing happened to him in the semi-final too !
It is now part of folklore - 'doing a Bradbury' is now well entrenched as part of the Australian vernacular.

 

[Hiheidi]

Most of the top 6, can't have that much wiggle room. Yes, they are in Champs league, and are commercially big, but have been spending hundreds of millions and not really selling for a long time.

As I understand it, from a 'big six' perspective, it's only Chelsea who are likely to breech FFP. Even Arsenal, who spent really big in the Summer, could have spent in January but chose not to.