[Albion] The right time for major investment in the team?

[GT49er]

That article seems to answer the question they pose with 'not very much'.

Be fair - they have spotted that we need a centre forward!

 

[Baldseagull]

Bizarrely, they state: Since his transfer to Brighton in August 2019, Neal Maupay is in the top 10 for xG. However, he has scored 26 goals with an xG differential of 36.68 - the highest for any player in that time period.

Then they state: Tying down the likes of Leandro Trossard, top scorer Neal Maupay, Alexis Mac Allister and Yves Bissouma will be top of the agenda with their contracts set to expire in June 2023.

If you look at the xG stats of the main strikers over the last 3 prem seasons in the bottom half of the table it makes for grim reading for Neal:

Danny Ings: xG = 31, actual goals = 41 +10
Wilf Zaha: xG = 24, actual goals = 29 +5
Emmanuel Dennis: xG = 7, actual goals = 10 +3
Teemu Pukki: xG = 23, actual goals = 22 -1
Patrick Bamford: xG =21, actual goals = 19 -2
Callum Wilson: xG = 31, actual goals = 28 -3
Che Adams: xG = 26, actual goals = 20 -6
Dominic Calvert-Lewin: xG = 41, actual goals = 34 -7
Chris Wood: xG = 38, actual goals = 31 -7
Neal Maupay: xG = 36, actual goals = 26 -10

Welbeck had a higher xg than Maupay this season, but 2 goals less, still want us to get him on another year though.
Maupays stats hit hardest by last seasons performance, when he was under by almost 6, but it seemed all Brighton players were misfiring that season.
Danny Ings relying heavily on his time with Southampton to be top of that list, has had a very similar season to Maupay with 7 from xg 6.85 for Ings, and 8 from 8.24 for Maupay.
Zaha took seven pens and scored 5 last season, usually he hits just over or just under his xg, but last 2 seasons he has exceeded by 3 and 2, he is 29 now and probably at his peak, Maupay 25 now, and will get better.

DCL has been worse on xg in each of the last 3 seasons than Maupay was this season.
Same for Che Adams.
Same for Chris Wood.
Same for Bamford last 2 seasons.
Callum Wilson 1.5 to 2 goals a season under for the 3 seasons before last, last season bettered his xg by 0.9, he is now 30.

Ings and Zaha both on a wage around £120k per week, Maupay probably around £45k per week, I suspect only Pukki earns less, but at 32 not the sort of player we would pay a fee for.

Che Adams is probably the most similar to Maupay in style and age, and what they give off the ball. Maupay was better last season on xg, and is better all round IMHO.

Personally I am pretty happy with him, if the pressure is off a bit with midfield and Trossard chipping in, a years more experience, maturity, and some more competition from Undav, could be a great season for him coming up.

 

[dazzer6666]

I'd prefer us to do our striker shopping in the Championship rather than europe. Most strikers who can score in the Championship can make the step up - Brereton-Diaz, Piroe, Grant ?

Can they ?

 

[Pavilionaire]

Welbeck had a higher xg than Maupay this season, but 2 goals less, still want us to get him on another year though.
Maupays stats hit hardest by last seasons performance, when he was under by almost 6, but it seemed all Brighton players were misfiring that season.
Danny Ings relying heavily on his time with Southampton to be top of that list, has had a very similar season to Maupay with 7 from xg 6.85 for Ings, and 8 from 8.24 for Maupay.
Zaha took seven pens and scored 5 last season, usually he hits just over or just under his xg, but last 2 seasons he has exceeded by 3 and 2, he is 29 now and probably at his peak, Maupay 25 now, and will get better.

DCL has been worse on xg in each of the last 3 seasons than Maupay was this season.
Same for Che Adams.
Same for Chris Wood.
Same for Bamford last 2 seasons.
Callum Wilson 1.5 to 2 goals a season under for the 3 seasons before last, last season bettered his xg by 0.9, he is now 30.

Ings and Zaha both on a wage around £120k per week, Maupay probably around £45k per week, I suspect only Pukki earns less, but at 32 not the sort of player we would pay a fee for.

Che Adams is probably the most similar to Maupay in style and age, and what they give off the ball. Maupay was better last season on xg, and is better all round IMHO.

Personally I am pretty happy with him, if the pressure is off a bit with midfield and Trossard chipping in, a years more experience, maturity, and some more competition from Undav, could be a great season for him coming up.

I take your point but it is pretty hard to argue against the correlation of Maupay's ongoing underperforming xG and our ongoing "lack of cutting" edge. You can almost pinpoint the 3 goals under the xG he misses each season and the 5 or 6 points it has cost us as a result.

I get that 26 goals from 3 seasons is reasonable in absolute terms but according to the Premier League's website he has also missed 26 "big chances" in that time. You've said at 25 he will only get better and it is true he's entering what should be his peak years. However, whether or not he will be able to deal mentally with the competition from Undav remains to be seen. His tantrums towards the end of the season were piss-poor, although he did redeem himself partially with his second half performance vs West Ham.

 

[Baldseagull]

I take your point but it is pretty hard to argue against the correlation of Maupay's ongoing underperforming xG and our ongoing "lack of cutting" edge. You can almost pinpoint the 3 goals under the xG he misses each season and the 5 or 6 points it has cost us as a result.

I get that 26 goals from 3 seasons is reasonable in absolute terms but according to the Premier League's website he has also missed 26 "big chances" in that time. You've said at 25 he will only get better and it is true he's entering what should be his peak years. However, whether or not he will be able to deal mentally with the competition from Undav remains to be seen. His tantrums towards the end of the season were piss-poor, although he did redeem himself partially with his second half performance vs West Ham.

Well, it's likely he will get better, no guarantees.

I agree that there were some horrible misses, but also some crackers. I don't know what to say about tantrums, not really read as much into him going straight off at the end in a few games as to call it tantrums, or is there something I have missed? Maybe upset with himself, with a team mate, needed a poo, or just took himself away so as not to get a red card for telling the ref what he thinks again, no idea what is going on in his personal life, or if he is happy to stay here, but if he is, I would be happy if we extended his contract.

 

[BrianSwan]

I don't know where to post this, or if its been posted already, but I've heard from one of my best mates than Juan Mata is joining you. He's close to him.

 

[Hugo Rune]

I don't know where to post this, or if its been posted already, but I've heard from one of my best mates than Juan Mata is joining you. He's close to him.

I’ve heard that rumour too although it was from a person at the club who saw Dunk returning some of his kit for the summer. They checked the pockets and out fell Mata! He’d been so anonymous at the Amex, no one from Manure had noticed he’d been missing for a few weeks!

 

[Frankworthington]

I don't know where to post this, or if its been posted already, but I've heard from one of my best mates than Juan Mata is joining you. He's close to him.

Too old and not good enough

The days when players turn up at little old Brighton for one last pay day are over thank god. What will he contribute?

Will not happen

 

[dazzer6666]

I take your point but it is pretty hard to argue against the correlation of Maupay's ongoing underperforming xG and our ongoing "lack of cutting" edge. You can almost pinpoint the 3 goals under the xG he misses each season and the 5 or 6 points it has cost us as a result.

I get that 26 goals from 3 seasons is reasonable in absolute terms but according to the Premier League's website he has also missed 26 "big chances" in that time. You've said at 25 he will only get better and it is true he's entering what should be his peak years. However, whether or not he will be able to deal mentally with the competition from Undav remains to be seen. His tantrums towards the end of the season were piss-poor, although he did redeem himself partially with his second half performance vs West Ham.

What tantrums?

 

[chaileyjem]

I take your point but it is pretty hard to argue against the correlation of Maupay's ongoing underperforming xG and our ongoing "lack of cutting" edge. You can almost pinpoint the 3 goals under the xG he misses each season and the 5 or 6 points it has cost us as a result.

.

Last season his XG was +0.2 compared to +5.7 and +3.5 in previous seasons.

 

[chaileyjem]

Bit taken aback for calls for “major investment” needed in the Albion when we are owned by someone who has so far invested £427m in the club…and continues to “invest” even further every single season.

 

[Frankworthington]

Bit taken aback for calls for “major investment” needed in the Albion when we are owned by someone who has so far invested £427m in the club…and continues to “invest” even further every single season.

This

Everton and Villa had "major investment" in the team, what good did it do them? I know you you and I disagree about this, but I am not expecting significant incoming unless both Tross and Maupay leave, when we may sign another forward. As you have said, if the right player is available at the right price, we are interested.

I am looking forward to the return of some of the loanees to strengthen the squad. It should be an exciting season

Having said that, I would be delighted if we gazumped Dirty Leeds for the RB Salzberg right back Christensen. He looks quite a player!!

 

[Soul Finger]

No. Now is the time to continue doing exactly what we have been doing.

Sorry

This - 100%.

 

[b.w.2.]

There's an adage that the best time to strengthen from a position of strength. Having just finished 9th, we've never been stronger in our history. So is this the summer for major investment in our squad?

Ever since Potter arrived we've been essentially a development club, bringing in young, inexperienced players and slowly blooding them into, in many cases, top Premier league players. From Bissouma, Maupay, Webster through White, Lamptey, Sanchez, Cucu, Moder, MacAllister and onto Caicedo, Mwepu, Sarmiento where the process is still early. Every Potter season has ended with a first choice XI quite different to the one that started it. He's been brilliant at doing this, but it inevitably means inconsistency of performances and results, and leaving points on the table that experienced, battle hardened teams wouldn't do.

Are we going to continue in this vein, with Undav, van Hecke, Mitoma, Kozlowski and others the next on the rank, with the best players sold on, or is it time to build (and critically, retain) a solid team that stays as a unit for the whole season with serious designs on competing for silverware and European places? We've only lost White in the past five years, it's true, we've been good at player retention ‐ but it feels like we're close to a tipping point on this with so many stars being born in our team.

By investment I don't only mean splashing out on expensive players, but upping the top earner wages significantly so that staying at Brighton is a good career choice. And I'm not necessarily asking Uncle Tony to open his chequebook, but there must be people who would see investing in Brighton as a good idea.

And to be clear, I'm very happy with where we are and what we're doing, I'm not demanding this at all. But now that interest is building around our better players and manager, could this be a time to take a slightly different approach? Or is this a completely moot point - are we basically at our FFP limits anyway so they're isn't much wiggle room for spending more unless we sell a couple for big money?

Yes, now is the time. And I mentioned this before. We must grab the opportunity or we may well slip backwards.

 

[chaileyjem]

Yes, now is the time. And I mentioned this before. We must grab the opportunity or we may well slip backwards.

Now is the time for what exactly ? Sounds like a club owner who has already invested £427m , pays its squad an average of £50K a week, has a world beating academy, CEO, stadium, one of the best young coaches in football and some of the most sought after young players in Europe and has just finished 9th in the PL is still not good enough and we should ditch that and spend MORE money - how and from where exactly ? A leveraged buy out ? An investor who doesn't support Brighton ? Or worse ? . Just so we can afford to give i dunno, Jesse Lingard on £100K a week ? Really ?

 

[b.w.2.]

Now is the time for what exactly ? Sounds like a club owner who has already invested £427m , pays its squad an average of £50K a week, has a world beating academy, CEO, stadium, one of the best young coaches in football and some of the most sought after young players in Europe and has just finished 9th in the PL is still not good enough and we should ditch that and spend MORE money - how and from where exactly ? A leveraged buy out ? An investor who doesn't support Brighton ? Or worse ? . Just so we can afford to give i dunno, Jesse Lingard on £100K a week ? Really ?

None of which I suggested. What I do say is take the opportunity of our top-half finish to strengthen from a position of strength.

Do you have ANY understanding of the concept of entropy?

Your attitude, I presume not shared with our club’s leaders, who are intelligent and driven, will bring us back down nearer the bottom of the league with resulting loss of manager and key players. We will miss the opportunity to strengthen as better players will not want to come too.


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[chaileyjem]

None of which I suggested. What I do say is take the opportunity of our top-half finish to strengthen from a position of strength.

Do you have ANY understanding of the concept of entropy?

Your attitude, I presume not shared with our club’s leaders, who are intelligent and driven, will bring us back down nearer the bottom of the league with resulting loss of manager and key players. We will miss the opportunity to strengthen as better players will not want to come too.


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Bloom strengthened the team last summer (Caicedo, Cucurella, Mwepu) , and I’m sure he will do likewise this summer. This thread is arguing that the club needs a major investment implying that Bloom and his approach isn’t enough. I disagree. Apologies if you concur too.

I’ve got English A Level but it was a long time ago so fair enough I’ll look “entropy” up in the dictionary.

 

[dazzer6666]

None of which I suggested. What I do say is take the opportunity of our top-half finish to strengthen from a position of strength.

Do you have ANY understanding of the concept of entropy?

Your attitude, I presume not shared with our club’s leaders, who are intelligent and driven, will bring us back down nearer the bottom of the league with resulting loss of manager and key players. We will miss the opportunity to strengthen as better players will not want to come too.


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How are you funding it ?

 

[b.w.2.]

Bloom strengthened the team last summer (Caicedo, Cucurella, Mwepu) , and I’m sure he will do likewise this summer. This thread is arguing that the club needs a major investment implying that Bloom and his approach isn’t enough. I disagree. Apologies if you concur too.

I’ve got English A Level but it was a long time ago so fair enough I’ll look “entropy” up in the dictionary.

Yes I agree we don’t need another big-money board member unless he/she is Tony-esque


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[b.w.2.]

How are you funding it ?

1 or 2 star player sales


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