[Albion] The Premier League’s Big Six tore apart Southampton, now they are doing the same to Brighton

[trueblue]

Maybe I’m in the minority but if Albion play good football, bloody a few noses and finish around the top 10 each season, I’ll be absolutely delighted. Top 10 would be great. Top 6 sensational. Top 4 incredible. It’s sad that some fans would get restless in those circumstances. At the risk of going a bit Graham Potter, those might actually need a bit of a history lesson. The top level is intensely frustrating as it’s so unfairly structured but we should never forget we used to crave occasional Cup meetings with the rich clubs as the highlight of a season. Now we get 12 a year and are well capable of beating them. It’s magic.

 

[Machiavelli]

Indeed. Some people are getting a long way ahead of themselves after one top-half finish in our entire history. Let's qualify for Europe once before we start worrying about emulating Southampton (who have played in Europe on a number of occasions). It's at times like these that I remember a letter to the Portsmouth News' sports pages a few years back from a P*mp*y fan wondering how going into administration and selling all their players was going to 'get us back into Europe where we need to be'. Let's never becomes such #twats

Good thread, and agree completely with the last point. My observations are:
-- as you point out, Southampton have sustained their model for a longer period under astute ownership (which they no longer have)
-- relatedly as you also point out, we've done it over 1.5 seasons, so we shouldn't get over-excited
-- @Stato started a great thread comparing player outgoings across clubs. We've now got substantial incomings across four windows: White 50m; Burn 15m; Biss c30m, Cucu c60m, Maupay 15m; Trossard c25m. There are others that we've got a fee for toot, and we've lost one of our most expensive players due to a health condition.
There are others, but that's 3 a year (if not more), which I doubt is sustainable over the longer term, and that's one of the key points about Stato's analysis -- which is just over one year -- that might come back to bite us. Note, most (in my view, rightly) agree that Moises will be gone in the summer, and it's hardly beyond the realms of possibility that we lose Ali Mac and even Mitoma then too. My fear here is that we're going too quick, but it's just a fear. I can see that Enciso, Sarmiento, Buonanotte, Koslowski, Adingra, etc might break through in the next year or two and have the kind of impact that Moises, Ali Mac and Mitoma have.
-- the other thing is that it seems that there's now a 'big 7' with Newcastle's petrochemical-death money. As 3 go down from the other 13, there's a 25% chance of relegation as Southampton are discovering this season (and have been flirting with for a few now). The 'big 7' isn't a set entity and one team (Spurs?) might fall out of it, but the key question is whether we can establish ourselves in, say, spots 8-12 on a consistent basis while also mounting a decent challenge for the European competitions.

 

[5Ways Gull]

As long as the fans and board accept that football is cyclical and we will have to anticipate periods where we are in the bottom half before we build up again and not throw the baby out with the bathwater at any sign of trouble we will be OK.

Someone should post something like this on the Everton equivalent of NSC. They definitely don't get it!! Bless 'em.

 

[Simster]

Of course it can happen to any of the 14, and I'm even old and doddery enough to remember Chelsea, Tottenham and both Manchester clubs being relegated. I always point to Stoke, who seemed as established as any provincial club after three successive ninth-placed finishes. And who ever talks about them now, apart from the real Andy Naylor?

But my point was that I think that the comparison with Southampton is too easy and one that doesn't stand up to detailed scrutiny. They put too much faith in their academy continuing to churn out talent - something that can never be taken for granted by any club - whereas we have diversified our talent search to a greater extent and have the backing of TB's data.

In my opinion, everyone could save themselves a lot of time reading this thread and just come straight to this post, as I think this is the difference between the two clubs in a nutshell.

 

[Simster]

Someone should post something like this on the Everton equivalent of NSC. They definitely don't get it!! Bless 'em.

It's called GrandOldTeam and reading it really is a guilty pleasure of mine. It's almost as delicious as reading OwlsTalk in the recent season Sheffield Wednesday got relegated. As an aside, I wonder how many posts you see with "Brighton tho. [sidjames]" on there these days?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Mentions comparisons with Southampton towards the end.

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lens]

I can't comment on the journalistic quality, but the sentiment is one that I share. Right now, our belief in the system is total - the evidence is before our eyes and shows no signs of stopping right now. BUT... it looks an almost impossible task to get any better than it is right now, and maybe that is good enough. The biggest clubs being able/willing to fund "quick-fixes" to consistently challenge for Champions League places is an enduring threat. The desire to be at the Top Table if the Super League appears again will surely drive the necessity for the Big 6 even further. Our current "edge" is the unearthing of talent that appears to be able to plug right into the PL, sprinkled with fantastic pros to help them adapt. Others will/are trying to recreate or buy that too? Either this is a manifestation of the TB data model, the network or both or could even be just a period when everything has aligned for a few glorious years.

The challenge for us as I see it is the next phase - i dont see this necessarily as getting better than we are currently but simply staying where we are. Our owner, CEO etc. are the reasons we think we could be different to Leicester, Southampton, and why we wont be a West Ham or Everton. Right now we look the most attractive option to anyone outside the Big 6, the ideal stepping stone. Leicester appeared to be that, Southampton before that and there may be fundamental differences in set-ip and situations that differentiate us from their experience and even learn from it. But the continual re-spawning carries inherent risk - the managerial recruitment , the evolution/funding of the recruitment network vs. bigger clubs, the academy all critically important but not fool-proof. I will enjoy every minute of the current situation for these reasons; finishing top-half every year in this environment looks like an incredibly difficult thing to do.

 

[Brovion]

That's not talking about the ultimate outcome, ie "will Brighton fade in the near future" it's about whether a small club can break into the ranks of the elite "with a flurry of academy players...and/or by creating the shrewdest recruitment network".

Southampton didn't break into the ranks of the elite. I guess Leicester did, briefly, and Newcastle are having a good go, but I think they fail the "small club" test now.

So, yes, it remains to be seen whether we are capable of establishing ourselves amongst the established top 6 (now 7 possibly) to make a 7/8. But, even if we don't manage that, there's a big gap we can occupy between the elite and the relegation scrappers, which is where Southampton now find themselves.

I agree. Yes our chairman/owner and CEO are brilliant. Yes we are an incredibly well-run club. Yes our recruitment and scouting system, with its magic data crunching, top-secret Starlizard algorithms is better than that of a lot of clubs. But for us to keep on being a Top Ten Premier League club (and we've only finished in the top ten once) our margin of error is very small, it all has to go on working at optimum efficiency. Is that possible? Well we'll find out.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Reckon we're all over-thinking this one, on account of sailing into uncharted territory as a club, and especially as fans. Sure there's a Big Seven. But two of them (Liverpool, Chelsea) are having a mare this season, two of them (Spurs, Newcastle) look a bit meh, and most of the rest of the league are bang average. As FDR once said 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'. And that bloke knew a thing or two about soccerball

 

[Brovion]

Reckon we're all over-thinking this one, on account of sailing into uncharted territory as a club, and especially as fans. Sure there's a Big Seven. But two of them (Liverpool, Chelsea) are having a mare this season, two of them (Spurs, Newcastle) look a bit meh, and most of the rest of the league are bang average. As FDR once said 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'. And that bloke knew a thing or two about soccerball

Yes, I agree with that too. I think we could all (me included) be treating it a bit too scientifically. We're all trying to find reasons for our success, and almost trying to reduce it to a formula: Bloom + Algorithms + Club Structure = Success. Whilst I really DO think it's true that we have an edge it's also possible that an amount of our current success could be down to just sheer dumb luck and no amount of 'Trusting Tony' will fix it if it runs out. Again, we'll find out.

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

As FDR once said 'we have nothing to fear but fear itself'.

Fear itself, of course.

And fannying around at the back!

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Fear itself, of course.

And fannying around at the back!

Ah yes, that as well, of course. I'll have to make a conscious effort to try and overcome that perfickly logical fear. As BOC once sang 'Don't Fear The Keeper'

 

[Stato]

Mentions comparisons with Southampton towards the end.

Nice video, but he underestimates the power of the big seven. We are very well run. We have a very smart owner and a very good network of scouts and contacts. Through TB's business we have access to the best analytics that may not be available to our rivals. However, we will always be at a disadvantage in terms of revenue. We cannot invest in wages in the way that these behemoths do. We are also, like every one of the other 14 (Now 13), in danger of one bad/unfortunate season setting us right back (see @Machiavelli 's post above) and we have to run the club with one eye on that possibility.

This season has the football world talking about our club in a way that we would never have dreamed would happen. As fans, we shouldn't waste a moment of this present focusing on what might be achieved in the future. Sustained success for any club not bankrolled by bottomless wallets is still a huge long shot. There's a long list of provincial clubs who were once considered special. Swansea, Wigan, Norwich etc. They won their trophy, or had their European adventure then they slipped back. Despite the league and FA Cup wins, Leicester fans have found out recently that even they will always be just Leicester. In the same way, we'll always be just Brighton. That's fine. It's been good enough for us and our antecedants for the last 100+ years and it'll be good enough when we wake from this dream. The fact that this is highly unlikely to last makes it extra important to thoroughly enjoy it while we can.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It is interesting to see how the middle tier of established clubs have fared over the last decade. If you analyse where Leicester, Everton, West Ham, Newcastle, Villa, Palace and Southampton have finished in the table over the last 10 years this is the outcome:

Top 6: 10%
7-10: 24%
11-17: 53%
18-20: 3%
FL: 10%

The takeaway is that even for those established 'middle tier clubs', two-thirds of the time is spent either in the bottom half of the table or in the Championship.

And only one of those clubs have managed to put a run of 5 seasons of top-half finishes. That is Leicester, but it looks likely that run could be ended this season.

Southampton had 4 top half fishes before their squad got pillaged by the Big 6, Everton had 3 seasons of top half finishes. For the rest it is bleak: our 9th place finish is better than any of Villa, Newcastle or Palace have managed in the last decade.

 

[Silverhatch]

We are a non-London/Northern provincial club making decent waves in the fiercest heat the Premier League can bring. We are in the petro state-owned, fund-driven US consortium era with one particular club trying to established new operating norms in the player trading arena. Right now our magic (5% marginal gain) beans are working and established top-10 with a chance of Europe and trying to win some silverware is the long-term objective. The ONLY way we can even contemplate staying in this fight is to buy low and sell stratospherically high. Tony knows it, Barber knows it and our board knows it. Leicester City (and Blackburn) are the living embodiment of how difficult it is to crack this and they’re a far bigger historical club in a major midland city. Many of their fan base have thrown their toys out the pram because of ‘lack of ambition’. Ironically, Southampton are now trying to do a Brighton to get out of their perceived malaise. Before the Amex we’d spent 10-years of our entire existence outside of Division 3. As someone said on another thread, “We really are a remarkable club.”

Well, fact is, right here, right now, we are. We are probably the smallest, least established footballing outpost to embark on the ‘project’ of having a go to break the modern, multi-billion pound per annum EPL era. Of course the establishment will want to f*** us up the arse. When has that ever NEVER been the case?

 

[Dick Knights Mumm]

Well, fact is, right here, right now, we are. We are probably the smallest, least established footballing outpost to embark on the ‘project’ of having a go to break the modern, multi-billion pound per annum EPL era. Of course the establishment will want to f*** us up the arse. When has that ever NEVER been the case?

There is Brentford of course. I look on Brentford as smaller than us.

 

[Silverhatch]

There is Brentford of course. I look on Brentford as smaller than us.

Of course. Brentford are, given their fan-owner, following the sports analytics data-driven model. But they’re only into their second EPL season. And they are based in the capital.

 

[father_and_son]

Nice video, but he underestimates the power of the big seven. We are very well run. We have a very smart owner and a very good network of scouts and contacts. Through TB's business we have access to the best analytics that may not be available to our rivals. However, we will always be at a disadvantage in terms of revenue. We cannot invest in wages in the way that these behemoths do. We are also, like every one of the other 14 (Now 13), in danger of one bad/unfortunate season setting us right back (see @Machiavelli 's post above) and we have to run the club with one eye on that possibility.

This season has the football world talking about our club in a way that we would never have dreamed would happen. As fans, we shouldn't waste a moment of this present focusing on what might be achieved in the future. Sustained success for any club not bankrolled by bottomless wallets is still a huge long shot. There's a long list of provincial clubs who were once considered special. Swansea, Wigan, Norwich etc. They won their trophy, or had their European adventure then they slipped back. Despite the league and FA Cup wins, Leicester fans have found out recently that even they will always be just Leicester. In the same way, we'll always be just Brighton. That's fine. It's been good enough for us and our antecedants for the last 100+ years and it'll be good enough when we wake from this dream. The fact that this is highly unlikely to last makes it extra important to thoroughly enjoy it while we can.

Talking some sense there!
We've been punching above our weight for some time now and it is far more likely that the natural order returns than we change football forever.

Top half of the PL is a journey not a destination for all but the Top6 (7?). We ARE different to most clubs but we aren't so different that we will break a 20 year cartel at the first attempt.

Enjoy what we have, while we have it.

 

[Horses Arse]

I don't think any club ever has been targetted as much as we have and contine to be. Every day, every statting 11 player bar the oldies are linked as targets to top 6/top european clubs. Only Veltman, Lallana, Wellbeck, Dunk, Webster, Gross will be left.

Southampton lost Lallana, ox, the other speedy one, the fat left back, van dydke and the manager as i recal.

We've already lost pretty much the entire coaching staff, recruitment bods, Biss, Cucu, White, Trossard already - madness