The Official, 103rd Tour de France, thread

[Stat Brother]

As Summer is finally here, let's get down to business.
Roll the titles:-









• Stage 1: Mont Saint-Michel - Utah Beach - 188km
• Stage 2: Saint-Lo - Cherbourg-Octeville - 182km 

• Stage 3: Granville - Angers - 222km
• Stage 4: Saumur - Limoges - 232km
• Stage 5: Limoges - Le Lioran - 216km 

• Stage 6: July Arpajon-sur-Cère - Montauban - 187km
• Stage 7: L'Isle-Jourdain - Lac de Payolle - 162km
• Stage 8: Pau - Bagnères-de-Luchon - 183km

• Stage 9: Vielha Val d'Aran - Andorra-Arcalis -184km
• Rest Day: Andorra

• Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany - Revel 198km
• Stage 11: Carcassonne - Montpellier -164km 

• Stage 12: Montpellier - Mont Ventoux - 185km 

• Stage 13: Bourg-Saint-Andéol - La Caverne du Pont-d'Arc - 37km - Individual time trial 

Stage 14: Montélimar - Villars-les-Dombes - Parc des Oiseaux - 208km
• Stage 15: July Bourg-en-Bresse - Culoz -159km 

• Stage 16: 18 July Moirans-en-Montagne - Bern - 206km 

• Rest Day 2: Bern
• Stage 17: Bern - Finhaut Émosson -184km 

• Stage 18: Sallanches - Megève - 17 km - Individual time trial
• Stage 19: Albertville - Saint-Gervais-les-Bains -146km 

• Stage 20: Megève - Morzine - 146km
• Stage 21: Chantilly - Paris - 113km

 

[Stat Brother]

As is now customary there is an NSC Fantasy TdF competition for the race.
It's very simple, once your team is selected it's locked in so there's no daily tinkering.

If you fancy your chances at coming second, as per my signature, here are the details:-

Host - www.velogames.com
League Name - NSC Geeks
League Code - 41202037269

Entry closes sometime Saturday morning.

 

[pb21]

As is now customary there is an NSC Fantasy TdF competition for the race.
It's very simple, once your team is selected it's locked in so there's no daily tinkering.

If you fancy your chances at coming second, as per my signature, here are the details:-

Host - www.velogames.com
League Name - NSC Geeks
League Code - 41202037269

I'm in!

 

[Stat Brother]

As is now customary there is an NSC Fantasy TdF competition for the race.
It's very simple, once your team is selected it's locked in so there's no daily tinkering.

If you fancy your chances at coming second, as per my signature, here are the details:-

Host - www.velogames.com
League Name - NSC Geeks
League Code - 41202037269

Entry closes sometime Saturday morning.

I should have said, you can tinker all you want with your team, until the event closes Saturday morning.

So if you have been stooopid enough to include this nimrod:-

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bouhanni-to-miss-the-tour-de-france/

You still have time to change him out.

 

[8ace]

Any bets

 

[Stat Brother]

Any bets

I was going to say, somewhat forthrightly, NO.
Then explain in great detail why.

But a quick look around Skybet has Sagan at odds on favourite for Green.
I'd say his biggest challenger will be Michael Matthews and they have him at a huge 28/1.
Make sure you cover that ew, there's a reason why Sagan is 4/7.

Before noticing that, while I was scratching around for any value bet, I was all prepared to start this tour how I ended the last.

Brain Cockhard 20/1 (2nd in the final stage last year) and Sam Bennett 50/1 will win/podium a sprint stage this year, the first opportunity is Saturday.

They are comfortably top 10 sprinters, in the carnage of a Tour finish just being there can be good enough.
If the bet were to get into profit Saturday (I have a sneaky feel for Brain) then walk away, it's very much a perfect storm/lightening in a bottle bet, not one to bank roll.
[MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] will have the inside scoop on the Polka Dot jersey, but good luck getting that bet on, as nobody will have heard of his tip.

 

[RandyWanger]

• Stage 17: Bern - Finhaut Émosson -184km
• Stage 18: Sallanches - Megève - 17 km - Individual time trial
• Stage 19: Albertville - Saint-Gervais-les-Bains -146km 

• Stage 20: Megève - Morzine - 146km

My old stomping ground. Looking forward to seeing them. Would love to head down to watch them come through again.

 

[Stat Brother]

Tour de France 2016 - Start List

http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/start-list/

 

[8ace]

I was going to say, somewhat forthrightly, NO.
Then explain in great detail why.

But a quick look around Skybet has Sagan at odds on favourite for Green.
I'd say his biggest challenger will be Michael Matthews and they have him at a huge 28/1.
Make sure you cover that ew, there's a reason why Sagan is 4/7.

Before noticing that, while I was scratching around for any value bet, I was all prepared to start this tour how I ended the last.

Brain Cockhard 20/1 (2nd in the final stage last year) and Sam Bennett 50/1 will win/podium a sprint stage this year, the first opportunity is Saturday.

They are comfortably top 10 sprinters, in the carnage of a Tour finish just being there can be good enough.
If the bet were to get into profit Saturday (I have a sneaky feel for Brain) then walk away, it's very much a perfect storm/lightening in a bottle bet, not one to bank roll.
[MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] will have the inside scoop on the Polka Dot jersey, but good luck getting that bet on, as nobody will have heard of his tip.

Thanks, I've done:
MM £7 e/w 33/1
BC £3 e/w 22/1
SB £3 e/w 50/1

Still waiting [MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] !

 

[pb21]

Thanks, I've done:
MM £7 e/w 33/1
BC £3 e/w 22/1
SB £3 e/w 50/1

Still waiting [MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] !

Think Quintana will get the polka dot this year, if not the Malloit Jaune too...

 

[8ace]

Think Quintana will get the polka dot this year, if not the Malloit Jaune too...

I don't know much about it so can't be backing favourites.

 

[pb21]

I don't know much about it so can't be backing favourites.

Hmm, maybe pinot each way then? Did well in the Dauphine...

 

[Bold Seagull]

Thanks, I've done:
MM £7 e/w 33/1
BC £3 e/w 22/1
SB £3 e/w 50/1

Still waiting [MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] !

You took tips from [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION]....



Just kidding.

 

[Stat Brother]

You took tips from [MENTION=435]Stat Brother[/MENTION]....



Just kidding.

I'll not be betting on them, so you know what that means

Matthews is massively priced for the Green Jersey.
If, IF, he gets to Paris in one piece he will be top 3 in the points classification.
I'd have raised half an eye if MM was 14/1 - 33/1 is just wrong.


As for the sprinters I'm expecting big things from Cockhard this year.
Sure Kittel will win all before him, once slow starting Etixx kick into gear.
But Cav, Griepel aren't what they were and Brain is more than a match for the second string sprinters.

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

https://youtu.be/N7gePpf9zJk

Nice little vid of the UK's Adam Yates...could be up there for the white jersey this year.

 

[gregbrighton]

I hope the French can contain themselves not to throw pi$$ at Chris Froome, again this year.

 

[Stat Brother]

Ok lets get down to business.

Stage 1 preview: Mont-Saint-Michel - Utah Beach-Sainte-Marie-Du-Mont, 188km





Prognostication:-
The racing will be super fast, the break will go, the break will be caught - This soothsaying lark isn't that difficult.
A lazy man would say 'Kittel by a postcode', and that lazy man is likely to be correct.
But Stage 1 rarely passes without a hitch while Etixx aren't known for starting Tours on the front foot.
So for that reason I'm going to take on the even money favourite with Brain Cockhard.

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Roll VT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SF43a3SnV4

 

[1066familyman]

Thanks, I've done:
MM £7 e/w 33/1
BC £3 e/w 22/1
SB £3 e/w 50/1

Still waiting [MENTION=10856]1066familyman[/MENTION] !

Ok then, here's my KoM breakdown, since you asked.

Be warned though, my betting tips are pony, as are my predictions in general.

Right that's the the disclaimer out of the way. Here we go.

Most likely KoM winner will be from GC, because of the way the points are awarded on summit finishes, so basically that's Froome or Quintana. Crap odds though, obviously.

Best non GC winner in recent times was Tommy V in an epic ding dong with Kessiakoff in 2012.

Majka won it in 2014, without winning GC, but that was a funny year with Froome and Contador crashing out and Nibali winning GC at a canter. This leads us to the next category of winner - GC rider who has had a bad time and no longer a GC threat.

Pinot has been suggested here I see. Personally I wouldn't waste money on gambling on a Top 10 GC rider having a bad day as there's too many contenders for that. If you insist though, then Zakarin might be worth a pop at best price 40/1. He's only here because he crashed out of the Giro. Doubt he'll be back in shape for serious GC then and might want to target the KoM instead, although team mate Rodriguez might have something to say about that. Go for Rolland 16/1 though in this category if you don't mind shorter odds and polka dot lycra overload!

Now here's where the fun is, longer odds on riders who may or may not target the jersey. A brief list:

Serge Pauwels (Dimension Data) - Had a great race last year. Loves to be in breaks, can hang in there for stage wins and is GC team leader, in a non GC team, so no one else to ride for. 66/1

Daniel Teklehaimanot (Dimension Data) - Wore the jersey for a bit last year. Just won it in the Dauphine (effectively TdF warm up race). Might have higher GC ambitions this year though and a possible stage win. 66/1

Natnael Berhane (Dimension Data) - Was very aggressive in recent Tour de Suisse ( the other TdF warm up race) Here for the valuable experience, but the nature of this stage hunting free form team means he won't be solely tied down to dom duties. Doubt he's strong enough for a stage win, but might hang on long enough on enough stages to find himself massing up those KoM points 80/1

Jarlison Pantano (IAM) - Was excellent in Tour de Suisse. But like there, I suspect he'll target a stage win more than KoM 50/1

Chris Anker Sorensen (Fortuneo - Vital Concept) - Was 3rd in the classic 2012 competition whilst riding for Tinkoff. You'd think his new team would mean he has licence to be in the breaks for the publicity, but seems they're quite serious about supporting Sepulveda's Top 15 GC ambitions (despite his recent injury). If Sepulveda loses all GC hope early on in the race though then Sorensen could be a decent shout for KoM. 66/1

Ruben Plaza ( Orica Greenedge) - 2nd in last year's Vuelta KoM. Getting on in years and not having as good a season as last year. Could have a dig here though.661

Nicola Edet (Cofidis) - KoM winner at Vuelta Espana 2013. Only drafted into team at late notice because the world's most exciting sprinter got in a punch up and now can't race. Complete change of team focus then at very very late notice. Navarro and Mate aren't good enough GC threats to have Edet working for them, Edet isn't good enough on GC himself. This means breakaways, Cofidis need to be in as many of these as possible to salvage something, possible stage win and/or KoM jersey. Edet went well in recent Route du Sud. If he targets KoM then I think he has a half decent chance. 100/1



My own few quid will probably go on Berhane and Edet, but that might not be for sound financial reasons. With my recent betting form, you could stick a pin in the startlist and end up with someone with more chance of winning than any of my tips I expect

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/king-of-the-mountains I've put in best prices from here only. Most prices are below that unfortunately.


Btw, for today's stage, I took Groenewegen e/w @ 25-1. If he's recovered from the shits and there's action then he could spring a surprise.

All things being equal , Kittel wins today, takes Yellow, gives it to team mate Alaphillippe on stage 2 and they keep it until next Saturday. Jerome Cousin in polka dots after being in the early break today

 

[Stat Brother]

All things being equal , Kittel wins today, takes Yellow, gives it to team mate Alaphillippe on stage 2 and they keep it until next Saturday. Jerome Cousin in polka dots after being in the early break today

You'd have to think that, if not handing over A'Pip then Dan Martin.
Looking ahead already tomorrow is going to be a cracking stage.


JC had a stint in the coveted final '4 pointer unlikely to score any Fantasy points' position of Team Brie.
A position that finally went to Alex Howes.