The Official, 103rd Tour de France, thread

[1066familyman]

TBH after the first stage I was beginning to think I'd over played my hand.
He pretty much finished where he should have done within the sprinters, but his team did nothing to alter that.

All the time he was 20/1 I felt (and said) at some point he'd cover that bet, I just can't afford to chase losses for 8 stages in order to break even on the Champs.

As it stands if the value is still there that'll still be my second bet of the tour.
Judging by your fantasy team you already have an idea as to what my first bet will be.

But you're right the sprinters, young and old, are looking great, esp when you consider who's missing as well.

In fact, I got my days mixed up when talking about GC pressure on Contador earlier. That's stage 5. Tomorrow is in fact another uphill drag sprint.

Very much suited to young Bryan. I might in fact have a little e/w on him myself, if nothing else just to bugger up your fantasy team

 

[Stat Brother]

1 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data 5:59:54
2 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Soudal
3 Bryan Coquard (Fra) Direct Energie
4 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team
5 Edward Theuns (Bel) Trek-Segafredo
6 Sondre Holst Enger (Nor) IAM Cycling
7 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Etixx - Quick-Step
8 Christophe Laporte (Fra) Cofidis, Solutions Credits
9 Daniel Mclay (GBr) Fortuneo - Vital Concept
10 Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo

General classification after stage 3

1 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team 14:34:36
2 Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Etixx - Quick-Step 0:00:08
3 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:10
4 Christopher Froome (GBr) Team Sky 0:00:14
5 Warren Barguil (Fra) Team Giant-Alpecin
6 Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team
7 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Tinkoff Team
8 Tony Gallopin (Fra) Lotto Soudal
9 Fabio Aru (Ita) Astana Pro Team
10 Daniel Martin (Irl) Etixx - Quick-Step

 

[Stat Brother]

Stage 4 preview: Saumer - Limoges, 232 km
The longest stage of this years Tour, 237.5 km or in old money 147.5 miles.





Plus the image I could have done with finding yesterday, the final kilometres




Prognostication:-
Too many DS' will have been angry about missing yesterday's solo break, so I expect a decent sized group to be up the road today.
Not that it'll make much difference as they'll get hauled back in the final 10 kms in order to set up the last sprint finish for a week.

Not tipping Cav is working well for the Manx missile, not tipping Cockhard is doing my fantasy team the power of good, while predicting a Kittel win seems to be screwing up everybody else, so:-

Kittel
Greipel
Kristoff.


I've just had a quick look on oddschecker for today and sorry chaps (@1066familyman & [MENTION=588]8ace[/MENTION]) 'beat the bookie Stat' has been sussed.
Brain Cockhard is now at best 7/1, the price I thought he should be.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-4/winner

 

[Hamilton]

What a brilliant start to Le Tour. Two Cav victories and both times taking on his rivals. Sagan in yellow, with a lion's mane to boot. Contador looking down and out - never more dangerous. Tommy Voeckler on the front and tongue out.

The low light has to be Porte losing so much time. I'd hoped he would have been a contender.

Le Tour proving that you can't win it in week 1, but you sure can lose it.


Sent from my iPhone in a non-Calde world :-(

 

[Bold Seagull]

More fool anyone who wrote off the Manx Missile. My goodness, what a star, what an athlete. 28 Tour wins.

 

[pb21]

Plus the image I could have done with finding yesterday, the final kilometres

View attachment 76327

If that is at all accurate there is ~25 m of 'ascent' in the final ~500 m or a ~5% gradient, a tough finish that should favour the likes of Sagan and maybe Greipel?

 

[RandyWanger]

ITV has more adverts than cycling. It's becoming unwatchable. Trying to catch up on yesterday but I'm running out of patience with it.

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

If that is at all accurate there is ~25 m of 'ascent' in the final ~500 m or a ~5% gradient, a tough finish that should favour the likes of Sagan and maybe Greipel?

Certainly a bit of a drag to the line today!!

 

[Bold Seagull]

ITV has more adverts than cycling. It's becoming unwatchable. Trying to catch up on yesterday but I'm running out of patience with it.

To be fair, I think they've been trying to get all the adverts in early so that the last 20km or so they show advert free - worked well so far as there hasn't been a huge amount happening at 80km out or so.

 

[Stat Brother]

Another great stage another big boys finish.
You could see neither had an ounce of energy left.

I'm slightly kicking myself as this morning when looking at oddschecker, I wanted to write:-
'now Kittel's 10/1 looks appealing'.
I decided it's Le Tour not a bookies busman's holiday, and I was also getting greedy.

Anyhoo that's it for Prognosticating Stat being near enough, I'll be reverting back to the norm, from tomorrow.

 

[1066familyman]

What another cracking sprint finish today. Superbly contested with a photo finish having to split the lunge to the line again. Can't ask for more than that.

Well that's fair play to Kittel. Probably more of a rise in the road at the finish than yesterday and yet he beat an in form hillier sprinter on the line.

I take back the mickey taking from yesterday. Really was his positioning out of that final corner that done for him rather than the meekest of gradients.

 

[Stat Brother]

I'm getting more than a little obsessed by [MENTION=705]Jeep[/MENTION]'s fantasy team.

I reckon he's closing in on the other Fantasy holy grail - go on my son.

 

[Jeep]

I'm getting more than a little obsessed by [MENTION=705]Jeep[/MENTION]'s fantasy team.

I reckon he's closing in on the other Fantasy holy grail - go on my son.

Ahem,. We're keeping our powder dry...... trying not to peak too early.
I am a little bemused just how badly the chaps are doing. When I checked yesterday we were about 80 places off bottom ( out of about 40,000 riders).

It's a bit like the Sam Bennett interview yesterday... "you're used to being lantern rouge as you were in this position last year...."

Another day tomorrow.

 

[Stat Brother]

Ahem,. We're keeping our powder dry...... trying not to peak too early.
I am a little bemused just how badly the chaps are doing. When I checked yesterday we were about 80 places off bottom ( out of about 40,000 riders).

It's a bit like the Sam Bennett interview yesterday... "you're used to being lantern rouge as you were in this position last year...."

Another day tomorrow.

A sterling effort, but I think today is your last day of teasing the lantern.



1 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Etixx - Quick-Step 5:28:30
2 Bryan Coquard (Fra) Direct Energie
3 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team
4 Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo
5 Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Team Katusha
6 Sondre Holst Enger (Nor) IAM Cycling
7 Daniel Mclay (GBr) Fortuneo - Vital Concept
8 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data
9 Samuel Dumoulin (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
10 Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-BikeExchange

Points classification

1 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team 147 pts
2 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data 142
3 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Etixx - Quick-Step 137
4 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Soudal 87
5 Bryan Coquard (Fra) Direct Energie 83
6 Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Team Katusha 56
7 Edward Theuns (Bel) Trek-Segafredo 45
8 Michael Matthews (Aus) Orica-BikeExchange 38
9 Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Etixx - Quick-Step 37
10 Sondre Holst Enger (Nor) IAM Cycling 34
11 Daniel Mclay (GBr) Fortuneo - Vital Concept 28


Can anyone tell me what Arthur Vichot does?

 

[1066familyman]

A sterling effort, but I think today is your last day of teasing the lantern.



1 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Etixx - Quick-Step 5:28:30
2 Bryan Coquard (Fra) Direct Energie
3 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team
4 Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) Team LottoNl-Jumbo
5 Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Team Katusha
6 Sondre Holst Enger (Nor) IAM Cycling
7 Daniel Mclay (GBr) Fortuneo - Vital Concept
8 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data
9 Samuel Dumoulin (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale
10 Simon Gerrans (Aus) Orica-BikeExchange

Points classification

1 Peter Sagan (Svk) Tinkoff Team 147 pts
2 Mark Cavendish (GBr) Dimension Data 142
3 Marcel Kittel (Ger) Etixx - Quick-Step 137
4 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Soudal 87
5 Bryan Coquard (Fra) Direct Energie 83
6 Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Team Katusha 56
7 Edward Theuns (Bel) Trek-Segafredo 45
8 Michael Matthews (Aus) Orica-BikeExchange 38
9 Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Etixx - Quick-Step 37
10 Sondre Holst Enger (Nor) IAM Cycling 34
11 Daniel Mclay (GBr) Fortuneo - Vital Concept 28


Can anyone tell me what Arthur Vichot does?

He turns up for the Nationals now and again. FDJ get to model the tricolour again.
Twice now he's pulled off this feat! What more do you want, blood!?

 

[Fignon's Ponytail]

What happened to Greipel today?

 

[Stat Brother]

He turns up for the Nationals now and again. FDJ get to model the tricolour again.
Twice now he's pulled off this feat! What more do you want, blood!?

So does he actually just work 1 day a year?


I'm all bent out of shape about tomorrow's stage.
It's taken me most of the day just to work out the thinking behind the rest of this weeks route.

I finally decided the sole purpose is to stop Sky beasting the field up the last climb in order to strangle the rest of the race. (I have no idea why that took so long).

I'm now a bit stuck as to who'll be properly racing tomorrow and when we can predict the GC big hitters will come out to play.

Hence the original question as I'm looking for a more climbing specific rouleur, but not a grimpeur.

 

[1066familyman]

So does he actually just work 1 day a year?


I'm all bent out of shape about tomorrow's stage.
It's taken me most of the day just to work out the thinking behind the rest of this weeks route.

I finally decided the sole purpose is to stop Sky beasting the field up the last climb in order to strangle the rest of the race. (I have no idea why that took so long).

I'm now a bit stuck as to who'll be properly racing tomorrow and when we can predict the GC big hitters will come out to play.

Hence the original question as I'm looking for a more climbing specific rouleur, but not a grimpeur.

Pauwels, Pantano & Cummings will probably try to get in the break to get the stage win. Would mean yellow for the first two if they pull it off and that might suit everyone.
Gallopin will almost certainly attack at some point. Slagter, Kelderman and Rui Costa might have a dig too.

Other than that it could be a straight up sprint between Alaphilippe and Valverde.

Brailsford says they won't kick a man when he's down, so assume no trying to put Contador under serious pressure. We'll see.


Very interesting stage this. Almost anything could happen bar a bunch sprint.

 

[1066familyman]

What happened to Greipel today?

He seemed to run out of steam and give up.

Perhaps yesterday's effort caught up with him?

Or maybe the sight of young Dylan come flying past him was just too much to bear?

 

[Stat Brother]

Stage 5 preview: Limoges - Le Lioran, 216 km

Everyone is expecting a tough humid day on tough unforgiving granite laced roads.





Prognostication:-
A decent break gets away, while the peloton ride a firm but fair tempo.
I'm not sure Sky will do this work, but I think they'll end up having to as the rest of the field will need to be lead like a Primary school trip.
I think the cream of the break will just hold on, Contador won't.

1 - Frank
2 - Gerans

From the peloton

3 - TJVG