The NEW £60million Falmer Stadium

[BigGully]

That is always a highly flexible number.

It's not as though the club would ever be deceitful in not saying what a break-even figure would be, but because there are many factors to consider - the prime one in this instance being 'how much is a match ticket going to cost?' - any figures mentioned now would only ever be hypothetical, based on one set of circumstances; circumstances which could, and probably will change from time to time.

Of course your right it is a highly flexible number, but it is however a very critical number.

It will directly effect the credibility of any proposed forecasts, profitability and therefore the viabilty of the project.

 

[Knotty]

Of course your right it is a highly flexible number, but it is however a very critical number.

It will directly effect the credibility of any proposed forecasts, profitability and therefore the viabilty of the project.

I'm not sure how critical potential investors can be on that score. How much credibility can be given to a figure that, with the best will in the world, is a guess? If we were moving from one 22,000 seater stadium to another it would be easier, but we're not.

Of course, the club has to come up with a number that looks feasible but I don't think that investors will take it as the be all and end all of their deliberations because they know it will be based on hypothetical calculations.

 

[BigGully]

I'm not sure how critical potential investors can be on that score. How much credibility can be given to a figure that, with the best will in the world, is a guess? If we were moving from one 22,000 seater stadium to another it would be easier, but we're not.

Of course, the club has to come up with a number that looks feasible but I don't think that investors will take it as the be all and end all of their deliberations because they know it will be based on hypothetical calculations.

All investors base their judgement on hypothetical calculation, thats the nature of their world.

If they were unable to conclude a sales figure that they themselves were satisfied with, then they just wouldnt invest.

You couldnt possibly expect anyone to 'invest' in any project without a projected profit, cash flow etc. I know banks would demand it and it would need to stand up to some scrutiny, especially today.

Of course if you wish not to invest but to be a benefactor instead, then these are less important.

 

[The Large One]

Of course your right it is a highly flexible number, but it is however a very critical number.

It will directly effect the credibility of any proposed forecasts, profitability and therefore the viabilty of the project.

And this is where, as I have said in the past, where Derek Chapman told me that the people working on the project have got a set of highly flexible scenarios on what I assume is a glorified spreadsheet which considers every detail of every flexible cost, flexible projected revenues, and its effect on the project and so on.

I don't know if this was something PWC set up for the club, or something they advised for the club, or something PWC simply stated was an acceptable business model.

I would expect the 'break-even' figure to change pretty much every year, depending on our circumstances - and hopefully that figure will be forever downward.

 

[BigGully]

And this is where, as I have said in the past, where Derek Chapman told me that the people working on the project have got a set of highly flexible scenarios on what I assume is a glorified spreadsheet which considers every detail of every flexible cost, flexible projected revenues, and its effect on the project and so on.

I don't know if this was something PWC set up for the club, or something they advised for the club, or something PWC simply stated was an acceptable business model.

I would expect the 'break-even' figure to change pretty much every year, depending on our circumstances - and hopefully that figure will be forever downward.

Yeah I agree that every credible business plan has inbuilt scenarios, my only concern is that a few months ago these scenarios might of been seen as a reasonable risk for the lenders.

Currently the alarm bells are ringing throughout the financial world and they aint to keen to part with any of their capital.

This is why my unqualified view is that individuals may well be asked to increase there own personal exposure to this projects risks ( ie: own cash ) and I just hope they have the means and will to do it.

 

[portslade seagull]

Totally cheesed off with the whole stadium will it won't it thing now....I'll believe it when it actually starts to rise out of the ground......Think most fans are now pissed off with the whole saga....Can't see the banks lending what we require without the repayments being increased to much higher levels..can the club afford this..probably not...

 

[Easy 10]

Would the club be bothering to press ahead with meetings with the council, "housekeeping" planning applications and narrowing the contractors down to a shortlist of two (with an announcement due by the end of this month on the chosen contractors) if the financial deals were not already in place ? This credit crunch hasn't reared its ugly head in the last few weeks, there's been a downturn for the last year or so. If there was a crisis in securing the finance, I think we'd know by now.

 

[Twinkle Toes]

Would the club be bothering to press ahead with meetings with the council, "housekeeping" planning applications and narrowing the contractors down to a shortlist of two (with an announcement due by the end of this month on the chosen contractors) if the financial deals were not already in place ? This credit crunch hasn't reared its ugly head in the last few weeks, there's been a downturn for the last year or so. If there was a crisis in securing the finance, I think we'd know by now.

I hope your right Easy. Like portslade seagull, I'm at the point whereby I'll believe it when the sodding thing starts to resemble a solid structure! Anyways, thanks for being on a positive 'tip' when all this gloom & doom abounds.

 

[Tooting Gull]

Would the club be bothering to press ahead with meetings with the council, "housekeeping" planning applications and narrowing the contractors down to a shortlist of two (with an announcement due by the end of this month on the chosen contractors) if the financial deals were not already in place ? This credit crunch hasn't reared its ugly head in the last few weeks, there's been a downturn for the last year or so. If there was a crisis in securing the finance, I think we'd know by now.

I would genuinely love to believe that. But think how reluctant the club would be to announce funding issues if there were any. They would do pretty much anything not to have to release such news until they absolutely had to.

I'm not saying for one moment there is a crisis, or even problems - I don't have the information - and I hope to God there aren't, but just because we haven't heard about problems, doesn't mean there aren't any.

As I say, it's just a concern, and we'll all have them to a greater or lesser degree until the bloody thing's built.

 

[Dandyman]

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Shock revamp for Falmer

8:48am Monday 15th September 2008

comment Comments (0) Have your say »
By Simon Barrett »


Plans for Falmer stadium face a dramatic revamp after costs soared by £10 million.

The soaring price of steel and changes to stadium building regulations during years of delays to the project have rendered Brighton and Hove Albion's approved plans useless.

The club has been forced to re-draw the proposals and is now preparing to submit another planning application to Brighton and Hove City Council.

The move raises the spectre of opponents to the 22,500 seater stadium again seeking to derail the plans.

Martin Perry, who heads the 30-strong stadium team, last night said the budget for the project has ballooned to £60million.

But he insisted the project was on track and assured fans work would begin on site as planned in December.

He said: “The budget is now a little over £60million. We have always maintained that the stadium is fundable and that has not changed.

“This application does not affect the work we are planning to begin by the end of the year. But yes, if the council rejected the application we would have to stop.”

The new plans will be discussed at the city council's major projects metting tomorrow.

The report reveals several changes to the designs which were originally logged with the council in 2002.

Two public inquires and a High Court legal challenge delayed the project until July 2007, when the Government finally granted approval.

Changes to the scheme include:

* An internal area increase from 18,189sq m to 27,796sq m.

* Grass topped chalk bunds, designed to allow the stadium to blend in with the surrounding environment, scrapped in favour of blockwork walls and a metal roof.

* Tubular steel arch replaced with a trussed design to cut costs.

* Plans for offices under the East Stand to be let to businesses replaced with more teaching space for City College.

* Chalk excavated from the Village Way site to be spread on a nearby field to save 22,000 lorry trips over four months.

Many of the changes, including larger concourses inside the stadium, have been imposed on the club by revisions to building regulations and new guidance from football authorities including FIFA and UEFA.

Others are financially motivated after the price of steel rocketed by 50% since the original plans were drawn up.

Mr Perry said the cost of the arch and roof alone had shot up from £6million to £12million in that time. With the planned changes, that figure will now be reduced to £8million.

The news will inevitably lead to fears that opponents of the scheme will again try to get the stadium scrapped.

Lewes District Council (LDC), Falmer Parish Council, the South Downs Society and the Campaign to Protect Rural England were among those originally opposed to the stadium.

Paul Samrah, chairman of the Falmer For All campaign, said: “The club has been working alongside LDC and the chances of this being called in by the Government are nil.

“The only way an opponent could seek a judicial review is if there is an error in the way planning consent was granted.

“I am very confident that will not happen and the message to fans is simply to keep the faith.”

However Lewes MP Norman Baker, who also opposed the stadium, said: “There was always a fear among my constituents that the club would be unable to fund the scheme and would have to come back for more commercial space to sell. That now appears to be the case.

“I am very concerned.”

WTF ?! How can this only be known now ? The regulations and guidance can not have appeared overnight (no pun) and the rising construction costs have been obvious for some time. Mr Perry is not increasing the local communities confidence in the project.

 

[The Large One]

Yeah I agree that every credible business plan has inbuilt scenarios, my only concern is that a few months ago these scenarios might of been seen as a reasonable risk for the lenders.

Currently the alarm bells are ringing throughout the financial world and they aint to keen to part with any of their capital.

This is why my unqualified view is that individuals may well be asked to increase there own personal exposure to this projects risks ( ie: own cash ) and I just hope they have the means and will to do it.

What has changed in the Albion's business plans to make you think that there is now more of an increased risk to the lenders than before?

 

[BigGully]

Would the club be bothering to press ahead with meetings with the council, "housekeeping" planning applications and narrowing the contractors down to a shortlist of two (with an announcement due by the end of this month on the chosen contractors) if the financial deals were not already in place ? This credit crunch hasn't reared its ugly head in the last few weeks, there's been a downturn for the last year or so. If there was a crisis in securing the finance, I think we'd know by now.

They must push on and keep selling the plan to whoever is intrinsic for the Stadium to be built and more power to them for that.

But I am sure they are finding it tougher by the day as banks and other lenders shy away from lending money to even the most professional of projects.

It may also be that the case that any financier they themselves have been dealing with personally, although no doubt a senior figure, might be overuled if their bank just pulls the plug on any present lending, no amount of goodwill can turn that around.

I am certainly not saying this is whats happening and I hope that everything remains on track, but its a concern.

It may be true that the downturn started months ago, but it is a different animal today no doubt.

 

[BigGully]

What has changed in the Albion's business plans to make you think that there is now more of an increased risk to the lenders than before?

Simply the lenders attitude to risk today is wholly different to their attitude to risk some moths ago.

 

[Easy 10]

I hope your right Easy. Like portslade seagull, I'm at the point whereby I'll believe it when the sodding thing starts to resemble a solid structure! Anyways, thanks for being on a positive 'tip' when all this gloom & doom abounds.

I would genuinely love to believe that. But think how reluctant the club would be to announce funding issues if there were any. They would do pretty much anything not to have to release such news until they absolutely had to.

I'm not saying for one moment there is a crisis, or even problems - I don't have the information - and I hope to God there aren't, but just because we haven't heard about problems, doesn't mean there aren't any.

As I say, it's just a concern, and we'll all have them to a greater or lesser degree until the bloody thing's built.

We've just got to take it on face value I guess. All the way along, Martin Perry has given assurances that the business plan is robust at that the financing of the project is not in jeapordy. He's experienced this before, he has delivered on these projects before, this is his field of expertise and is why DK got him on board when he took over the club. I trust that he is not lying to us when he says this is all very much on track. And having spoken to him on a few occasions, he doesn't strike me as a billy bullshitter. I trust the bloke - if he says its all in hand, then I (for one) believe him. He's not lied to us yet, has he ?

 

[The Oldman]

WTF ?! How can this only be known now ? The regulations and guidance can not have appeared overnight (no pun) and the rising construction costs have been obvious for some time. Mr Perry is not increasing the local communities confidence in the project.

But it has not only been known now. We were told at the beginning of the year that this planning application would be made because of all the new rules and regulations that have come to pass since the original application was made last century. Same for rising costs. We were told that the costs had risen by the club and they were dealing with it but were confident the stadium was still affordable.

 

[Dandyman]

But it has not only been known now. We were told at the beginning of the year that this planning application would be made because of all the new rules and regulations that have come to pass since the original application was made last century. Same for rising costs. We were told that the costs had risen by the club and they were dealing with it but were confident the stadium was still affordable.

Only my opinion but I do think that if we abandon the aesthetic elements of the project we are inviting renewed objections from the anti-brigade.

I am also waiting to see who will stump up the £60 million other than on a long term loan/mortgage basis which will demand on-going profit streams (tickets/merchanise/food & drink) to service that debt.

 

[supaseagull]

Only my opinion but I do think that if we abandon the aesthetic elements of the project we are inviting renewed objections from the anti-brigade.

I am also waiting to see who will stump up the £60 million other than on a long term loan/mortgage basis which will demand on-going profit streams (tickets/merchanise/food & drink) to service that debt.

Where have you been for the last 10 years?

1. The objectionists can no longer stop the stadium being built.

2. The finance for the stadium will come from the lottery, the football foundation ,the sports council and sponsorship as well as funds from banks and other private investors.

Sorry - but why are people still going on about the same thing when it's been answered a hundred million times before?

 

[Scoffers]

WTF ?! How can this only be known now ? The regulations and guidance can not have appeared overnight (no pun) and the rising construction costs have been obvious for some time. Mr Perry is not increasing the local communities confidence in the project.

 

[Djmiles]

Where have you been for the last 10 years?

1. The objectionists can no longer stop the stadium being built.

2. The finance for the stadium will come from the lottery, the football foundation ,the sports council and sponsorship as well as funds from banks and other private investors.

Sorry - but why are people still going on about the same thing when it's been answered a hundred million times before?

Because on the off chance it does go tits up, they can join the "I told you so" Bandwagon.

 

[BigGully]

I am not sure why some feel the club are to blame here.

They of course will offer certain information at different time's to answer some of our concerns, but they might be battling to keep this project afloat at present.

Who knows hopefully they might be sailing through this period with all funding in place and diggers at the ready for December.

However if as I suspect they are currently fighting to raise monies, whilst previous funding avenues are now closing, I am guessing they are having good days and bad days and they cannot possibly update us continually, what good would that achieve.

There is no reason to suspect that they havent got the best people to deal with Stadium issues today, so I am hopeful that we will be given the best chance to succeed.

I do have a concern that they might accept a rather lesser quality stadium to ensure the stadium is built imminently. ahead of waiting a little longer and delivering a 'world class stadium that the inital design depicts.