[Finance] The Mortgage Market 2022

[Titanic]

No BoE announcement made re. interest rates tomorrow? When is it likely to be?

Interest rates expected to rise from 1.75% to 2.50% today which will have a big impact on anyone on a variable, discounted or tracker rate

2.25%

Bank committee split 5-4 on rate hike

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee voted by five to four to hike the rate by half a percentage point. Analysts had predicted the rate could have risen as much as three quarters of a percentage point.

It takes the interest rate to 2.25% - the highest level since November 2008, when the banking system faced collapse.

Three of the dissenting members preferred to increase the bank rate by 0.75% - to 2.5% - while the other wished to increase it by 0.25%.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

2.25%

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Households coming to the end of sub 2% fixed deals over the coming months are going to be finding the best fixed rates are going to have over doubled. You must be dealing with a lot of panic at present Uncle S.

It is a challenge. No end in sight. 5 year fixed rates starting to edge nearer 5% than 4%. Very little differential in rates from 60% to 90% now, also some buy to let rates are now lower than residential rates. The market is very unsettled

 

[Bold Seagull]

...

 

[erkan]

Will this mean 5 and 7 Year Fix rates jump up now?

Seems a bit counterintuitive when this rate rise was baked in already...

 

[erkan]

It is a challenge. No end in sight. 5 year fixed rates starting to edge nearer 5% than 4%. Very little differential in rates from 60% to 90% now, also some buy to let rates are now lower than residential rates. The market is very unsettled

Santander were at 3.4% last week for me to do a remortgage on 5 yr fix. Is that likely to still be available at around 3.9% now?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Santander were at 3.4% last week for me to do a remortgage on 5 yr fix. Is that likely to still be available at around 3.9% now?

They were market leading for a product transfer last week at 3.44% for a client I arranged. Will be higher now

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

I’m off a 1.73% fixed rate next Summer.

Looks like the childcare costs I was expected to save (youngest going to school) will be going elsewhere!

I’m hoping for some serious retention offers to counter the market but can’t see it

 

[Bold Seagull]

I’m off a 1.73% fixed rate next Summer.

Looks like the childcare costs I was expected to save (youngest going to school) will be going elsewhere!

I’m hoping for some serious retention offers to counter the market but can’t see it

Some providers will give you an agreement that will last 6 months on the rate at the time of applying. Might be worth securing one now, even if you come to next summer and the outlook has changed, at least get something in reserve at say 4% if we find the next summer rates have hit 5% or worse.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Some providers will give you an agreement that will last 6 months on that rate. Might be worth securing one now, even if you come to next summer and the outlook has changed, at least get something in reserve at say 4% if we find the next summer rates have hit 5% or worse.

Most lenders do 6 months in advance, some 4., some 3. The 1.73% rate is likely to be at least double that now

 

[Bold Seagull]

Most lenders do 6 months in advance, some 4., some 3. The 1.73% rate is likely to be at least double that now

Yes, I edited my English as it looked like I was saying the same rate.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Some providers will give you an agreement that will last 6 months on the rate at the time of applying. Might be worth securing one now, even if you come to next summer and the outlook has changed, at least get something in reserve at say 4% if we find the next summer rates have hit 5% or worse.

That’s the plan (I work for a bank) so will be securing what I can as soon as the early lock in allows.

The irony being that I took a shorter fixed term this time around as was stuck on a higher 5 year fixed to my detriment last time, FFS!

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Speaking to a mortgage adviser who said they would find us a fixed deal at 3.95% for 90 days (which I know is high anyway but gave us some certainty whilst we looked) but don't think they did the paperwork.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

If you want to know which lenders do 6 month mortgage offers and what rates they have send me a pm

 

[cheesy77]

What are people's views on how high interest rates will go in the next 12 months?

Officially into a recession today, albeit 0.1% contraction. Raising interest rates is exactly what you do not want to be doing in a recession, as it further dampens the economy and deepens the downturn. But I realise the BOE are grappling to get inflation under control, which is clearly the priority right now.

Surely they'll have to play a very fine balancing game though, I can't see them going over 3-3.5% at the peak? Potentially to drop when inflation is back down to normal levels, otherwise this recession will be long and deep.

Appreciate this is all crystal ball stuff.


Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[pasty]

Rumours of a stamp duty cut in Kwasi Kwarteng's mini budget today. Will be watching on tenterhooks as we are moving house and due to complete next Friday. Could be very good news for us, although knowing our luck he will reduce stamp duty but make it effective from October 1st - the day after we complete

 

[Bold Seagull]

What are people's views on how high interest rates will go in the next 12 months?

Officially into a recession today, albeit 0.1% contraction. Raising interest rates is exactly what you do not want to be doing in a recession, as it further dampens the economy and deepens the downturn. But I realise the BOE are grappling to get inflation under control, which is clearly the priority right now.

Surely they'll have to play a very fine balancing game though, I can't see them going over 3-3.5% at the peak? Potentially to drop when inflation is back down to normal levels, otherwise this recession will be long and deep.

Appreciate this is all crystal ball stuff.

Depends what you class as normal levels, historically the mean is probably around 4%. Dropping back to normal levels is just what we're used to since the financial crash. Trouble is if other central banks raise rates and get their inflation under control, our currency loses value so it's not just about our own inflation.

The government are then countering the blunt instrument of interest rate rises with tax cuts and bail outs such as energy caps etc. so tackling inflation with one hand, but giving it back with another. It has the appearance of 2 competing stategies to me at least.

Crystal balls, fingers in the air = government strategy principles.

 

[Titanic]

The chancellor announces a cut to the Stamp Duty tax in England and Northern Ireland.

The cut raises the threshold of how much a property has to cost before stamp duty is paid to £250,000.

First time buyers currently pay no stamp duty on the first £300,000, that will be raised to £425,000.

"And we’re going to increase the value of the property on which first-time buyers can claim relief, from £500,000 to £625,000. The steps we’ve taken today mean 200,000 more people will be taken out of paying stamp duty altogether.

This is a permanent cut to stamp duty, effective from today."

 

[WATFORD zero]

The chancellor announces a cut to the Stamp Duty tax in England and Northern Ireland.

The cut raises the threshold of how much a property has to cost before stamp duty is paid to £250,000.

First time buyers currently pay no stamp duty on the first £300,000, that will be raised to £425,000.

"And we’re going to increase the value of the property on which first-time buyers can claim relief, from £500,000 to £625,000. The steps we’ve taken today mean 200,000 more people will be taken out of paying stamp duty altogether.

This is a permanent cut to stamp duty, effective from today."

That's a relief, I did worry how those first time buyers buying between £500,000 and £625,000 were going to cope. Mrs Wz is increasing her hours at the foodbank from next week, but I told her I didn't think that would be sufficient

 

[HAILSHAM SEAGULL]

How many 1st time buyers pay £500,000 for a house. Typical rich knobs mini budget