The main competition - all fixtures analysis - we are going up as champions

[Giraffe]

I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.

To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.

So,
- If at home to top ten - draw
- If at home to anyone else - win

- If away to top twelve - draw
- If away to anyone else - win

Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!

I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.

The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.

Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go at the international break in mid March. That is real squeeky bum time, but their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.

I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.

Laugh away

 

[Jimmehh]

You have too much time on your hands. Get a job

 

[studio150]

Flawed in removing any defeats for the teams involved

 

[Giraffe]

You have too much time on your hands. Get a job

Slow work day combined with promotion feveritus. Counsellors told me to not to over analyse but I misheard.....

 

[Giraffe]

Flawed in removing any defeats for the teams involved

Indeed, as I said. But it was done to highlight the different run ins and difficulty level of games rather than a points points prediction. The gaps are the key elements for me, not the total points which I accept are overstated in probably all cases.

The other flaw is that a team like Cardiff or QPR which is currently playing above it's current league position may do better than shown against these teams. Cardiff are playing Huddersfield and Newcastle. We are the only ones that have QPR still to play.

 

[sparkie]

Good analysis, but I suspect Derby are really a 'top 10' side with their game in hand, so I'd downgrade us by 2 points.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

To be honest, I've pretty much lost all interest in predictions and people trying to use science, statistics or some kind of formula to figure out what's going to happen. As I've said before, anyone can beat anyone on their day in this league and things change minute by minute, (as seen on Tuesday night) let alone match by match, so what's the point?

I'm not getting too up or down about the whole thing because a) it prevents possible disappointment further down the line when things don't go to 'plan' and b) it's only football – whatever will be, will be. I'm just kicking back and enjoying the ride.

One more thing to remember, should it all go tits up – you can't miss what you never had.

 

[Rugrat]

I've just done this analysis for us, Newcastle, Huddersfield and Reading.

To try and take the emotion/bias out of it, I set some criteria based on whether a team was at home or away and what the current league position is of their opponents.

So,
- If at home to top ten - draw
- If at home to anyone else - win

- If away to top twelve - draw
- If away to anyone else - win

Sticking to this exact criteria makes pretty reading for us!

I know it won't follow like this, and all teams will lose the odd game as well, but stick with the rationale for a moment. On paper at least we have the slightly easier fixtures, and Newcastle and Reading have a much tougher run.

The key games will obviously see swings, and I guess this type of analysis hampers Newcastle's impressive away record more than it should, but it's a consistent format for all clubs. The same could be same for our impressive home record.

Also worth noting that on this basis, although we finish eight points clear of Huddersfield we are only two points clear with eight matches to go. Their tough run starts then when the pressure will really be on. That will be a time for cool heads and we will have a much easier run which gives us 7 wins from the last 8 games.

I suspect all teams will get less points than this but I'm hanging my hat on the gaps shown being not that far off.

Laugh away

It's not disimilar to what I try and do, in so much as giving the same outcome for the same opposition. I do add the emotional element and just think that Newcastle could piledrive their way to the title. That said, I think we and Hudders could probably match up well (notwithstanding our current form). I'd just add a loss or two in, most likely at the middling aways which we both have an equal number of

The one thing missing is the CH factor. Time for him to really earn his money and get the squad revved up for the final laps

 

[Giraffe]

Top eight now, as you would expect Sheff Weds and Leeds go into the play offs with Huddersfield and Reading. Yorkshire police will love it

Norwich and Fulham miss out by some distance.

 

[maltaseagull]

Remind me where Ipswich were in the table?

Sort of puts a downer on the theory?

 

[Titanic]

7 wins out of 8 in April/May... blimey

 

[Giraffe]

7 wins out of 8 in April/May... blimey

The thing is whilst I accept the total points are probably overstated, what we have shown this season is we are very good at dispatching the lesser teams. In that last eight games we are playing seven teams currently in the bottom half:

Blackburn 23rd
Birmingham 14th
QPR 19th
Wolves 18th
Wigan 22nd
Bristol City 20th
Aston Villa 16th

Yes they may be raising their games if they are in relegation battle, but we won't exactly be taking the foot off the pedal, and class should therefore win the day.

I would expect Birmingham, QPR, Bristol and Villa to be clear of relegation trouble and thinking of their holidays by the time we play them. Wigan may already be down.

 

[FatSuperman]

Good god what is wrong with people. The original post states what this exercise is about and yet still we have to have the same 'why bother' posts, if that's your opinion then fine, don't bother commenting surely?

Obviously we have lost to people well outside the range discussed here, but as stated, it's the finishing GAP that is the point. Over the course of the SEASON thus far we are in second place, with a 4 point gap. So if over the rest of the season the same overall form follows, then we'll be there or thereabouts. And since our run in is probably the easiest, in theory, then we should gain on that.

Obviously it doesn't take into account changes (or lack thereof) that happened in the Jan window.

 

[Mellotron]

The thing is whilst I accept the total points are probably overstated, what we have shown this season is we are very good at dispatching the lesser teams. In that last eight games we are playing seven teams currently in the bottom half:

Blackburn 23rd
Birmingham 14th
QPR 19th
Wolves 18th
Wigan 22nd
Bristol City 20th
Aston Villa 16th

Yes they may be raising their games if they are in relegation battle, but we won't exactly be taking the foot off the pedal, and class should therefore win the day.

Also as you get closer to season's end, 3 points can appear more valuable and teams may well open up more, which completely suits our game.

This also makes me confident we will do fairly well against the likes of Reading and Toon at ours. These teams will actually come to play football, and that works for us in my opinion.

We need to be aiming for 5 wins in a row from Blackburn to Wigan. Not saying we'll get all of them, but it's realistic to aim for that.

 

[beorhthelm]

Remind me where Ipswich were in the table?

Sort of puts a downer on the theory?

i dont see it as a "theory" as such, the point/position allocation is just a way to reasonably forecast results. likewise missing out loses is OK, you wouldn't expect a top team to lose a game or two, though we know in practice will happen, theres no way to forecast against who so eliminate the unknown equally across all teams.

what i think it shows is that, after February, we only have two games against teams with much to play for while our rivals have some more challenging games.

 

[Jack Straw]

Apart from Burton, Huddersfield's remaining home fixtures are all tricky.

 

[Giraffe]

Worth noting if this happens we will be promoted away to Norwich, and crowned champions at home to Bristol City. What a lovely week that would be.

 

[Giraffe]

but as stated, it's the finishing GAP that is the point.

Exactly this.

Also as you get closer to season's end, 3 points can appear more valuable and teams may well open up more, which completely suits our game.

Completely agree with this. It was something that clearly happened in the run in last season as well.

i dont see it as a "theory" as such, the point/position allocation is just a way to reasonably forecast results. likewise missing out loses is OK, you wouldn't expect a top team to lose a game or two, though we know in practice will happen, theres no way to forecast against who so eliminate the unknown equally across all teams.

what i think it shows is that, after February, we only have two games against teams with much to play for while our rivals have some more challenging games.

Agreed, good summary of what I was trying to achieve.

 

[Official Old Man]

My spreadsheet has 8 teams. I thought about Villa but changed my mind. I work only on what could happen and when Udders might not win a game.
Right now BHA come third to Udders & Newcastle. That will change, let's face it we all had Ipswich as a home win. Huddersfield are the team to watch and we have to hope they lose somewhen. Also a win in our next three instead of three draws is a bonus.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Well I like it. Giraffes are very good at seeing a long way ahead, so I shall stop worrying.