Brighton Pavilion could easily become a 4 way marginal if the Green vote collapses and Labour voters stay at home , it could well be the UKIP vote that allows the Conservatives to sneak in.
No chance. I personally think Caroline Lucas will win again - I know a few people who thinks she's done a good job as an MP and will vote for her but won't support the Greens in the local election. But if she doesn't, Pavilion will go to Labour, there's no way that the Tories will pick up enough votes
As for the idea that UKIP are in with any chance of winning in Brighton ... more chance of Messi signing for the Albion. I think UKIP will struggle to win any seats but if there's one place that's really not natural territory for them, it's Brighton