The lack of data on actual number of CV infections

[Albion Dan]

I’ve not read this thread before. Really interesting take and a good challenge to the panic inducing spin on the stats currently in play. If the cruise ship is reality then you really have to question the merit in the current global response and it’s effect on the economy which as suggested in the other thread is far far more damaging than the virus itself.

 

[Albion Dan]

This seems reliable from Public Health England

But it’s not reliable because they’re not testing anybody. I know 3 people that are showing some form of the symptoms and feel generally ill. None will be tested because they don’t require hospital treatment.

 

[Bozza]

I’ve not read this thread before. Really interesting take and a good challenge to the panic inducing spin on the stats currently in play. If the cruise ship is reality then you really have to question the merit in the current global response and it’s effect on the economy which as suggested in the other thread is far far more damaging than the virus itself.

Thing is, any other approach to the one we're taking would involve a period of hundreds, if not thousands, of people dieing needlessly every day due to the lack of available health resources. Those deaths won't all be "oldies who were going to die anyway", but will encompass all age groups. As a society we don't knowingly allow that to happen.

 

[drew]

But it’s not reliable because they’re not testing anybody. I know 3 people that are showing some form of the symptoms and feel generally ill. None will be tested because they don’t require hospital treatment.

No data will be 100% reliable unless you test everyone every day and that is clearly not feasible. They can only base modelling on what they currently know and as that changes, so will the model. I assume you meant to say 'they aren't testing everyone' rather than they aren't testing anybody'?

 

[The Spanish]

This is more about media reporting than the figures themselves but this seems to be the first “Who, us? No we were always questioning the figures and data” style article from the BBC and especially this triggle fella who hasn’t exactly covered himself in measured calm glory so far. Going to see a lot more of these, as news outlets begin to retreat from their initial styles of reporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

 

[Rogero]

This site has so much info and is constantly changing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Hugo Rune]

This is more about media reporting than the figures themselves but this seems to be the first “Who, us? No we were always questioning the figures and data” style article from the BBC and especially this triggle fella who hasn’t exactly covered himself in measured calm glory so far. Going to see a lot more of these, as news outlets begin to retreat from their initial styles of reporting.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

“Even the government's previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths, the research showed.”

Wow.

BJ promised a max of 100,000!

They should have read NSC prior to the U-Turn last Monday. Plenty of posters realised the ‘herd immunity’ based strategy was bat-shit. My fear is that when they were pursuing this, hundreds, if not thousands of travellers from hotspots like Lombardy and Madrid were pilling back into the country with out screening or quarantine. How many had Covid-19? Were they mostly young people who show no symptoms? It’s very very frightening when you consider how wide spread around the UK it could already be.

The ‘shield’ plan seems a very sensible one to pursue in the current situation.

 

[Albion Dan]

No data will be 100% reliable unless you test everyone every day and that is clearly not feasible. They can only base modelling on what they currently know and as that changes, so will the model. I assume you meant to say 'they aren't testing everyone' rather than they aren't testing anybody'?

Meant they aren’t testing most people. I know 3 people with symptoms who will never actually know if they had it or not.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

“Even the government's previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths, the research showed.”

Wow.

BJ promised a max of 100,000!

They should have read NSC prior to the U-Turn last Monday. Plenty of posters realised the ‘herd immunity’ based strategy was bat-shit. My fear is that when they were pursuing this, hundreds, if not thousands of travellers from hotspots like Lombardy and Madrid were pilling back into the country with out screening or quarantine. How many had Covid-19? Were they mostly young people who show no symptoms? It’s very very frightening when you consider how wide spread around the UK it could already be.

The ‘shield’ plan seems a very sensible one to pursue in the current situation.

11th March. Liverpool v Atletico Madrid.

Liverpool will be a big epicenter after London.

 

[The Spanish]

11th March. Liverpool v Atletico Madrid.

Liverpool will be a big epicenter after London.

MAY be. Based on you knowing there was a football match there. What if the whole lot of them got off at Crewe and went on the piss the day before? What if none of the travelling supporters have had any exposure? You have no way of knowing any of this with any certainty.

 

[Wozza]

Meant they aren’t testing most people. I know 3 people with symptoms who will never actually know if they had it or not.

They will. A post-virus, antibody test is coming. It has to for society to get back to something like normal.

 

[beorhthelm]

“Even the government's previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths, the research showed.”

Wow.

BJ promised a max of 100,000!

They should have read NSC prior to the U-Turn last Monday. Plenty of posters realised the ‘herd immunity’ based strategy was bat-shit. My fear is that when they were pursuing this, hundreds, if not thousands of travellers from hotspots like Lombardy and Madrid were pilling back into the country with out screening or quarantine. How many had Covid-19? Were they mostly young people who show no symptoms? It’s very very frightening when you consider how wide spread around the UK it could already be.

The ‘shield’ plan seems a very sensible one to pursue in the current situation.

what you need to recognise is events where (are) behind the news cycle. things change. advise changes. what is true on monday is overruled by tuesday, not because the people were wrong but because of that change. its probabilities and reactions, not absolutes. no one knew any more than the government, they speculated and some got closer to the new state of information than others. herd immunity is how we cope with flu every year, so why not this (well because we dont have vaccines).

while travellers came back here from Europe, so where many thousands across europe were crossing "closed borders" for various exemptions, unchecked. we've done little different to other countries, mostly a few days different and presentation.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

what you need to recognise is events where (are) behind the news cycle. things change. advise changes. what is true on monday is overruled by tuesday, not because the people were wrong but because of that change. its probabilities and reactions, not absolutes. no one knew any more than the government, they speculated and some got closer to the new state of information than others. herd immunity is how we cope with flu every year, so why not this (well because we dont have vaccines).

while travellers came back here from Europe, so where many thousands across europe were crossing "closed borders" for various exemptions, unchecked. we've done little different to other countries, mostly a few days different and presentation.

You are contradicting yourself here. Herd-immunity, in the context of Coronavirus, was a bat-shit mental way to deal with this virus. You are right, it is used to handle flu but the immunity is delivered by mass vaccination. How on earth Patrick Vallance felt 60-80% could quickly become infected, whilst simultaneously being told to take measures to avoid it, is beyond most people. This also came with brutal collateral damage.

Vallance was wrong. Period.

 

[CheeseRolls]

what you need to recognise is events where (are) behind the news cycle. things change. advise changes. what is true on monday is overruled by tuesday, not because the people were wrong but because of that change. its probabilities and reactions, not absolutes. no one knew any more than the government, they speculated and some got closer to the new state of information than others. herd immunity is how we cope with flu every year, so why not this (well because we dont have vaccines).

while travellers came back here from Europe, so where many thousands across europe were crossing "closed borders" for various exemptions, unchecked. we've done little different to other countries, mostly a few days different and presentation.

We have decades of detailed data on influenza and huge numbers who have been able to study it at length. It is still imperfect, with some people having vacine side effects, poor immunity and infection from new strains that appear too quickly to be included in this year's vacine. Granted we don't need something that is perfect, just good enough and affordable and simple to produce and administer at scale. Can we get all three ready and field tested quickly?

Bear in mind the number of independent voices who still refuse the MMR jab, for reasons which entirely defy logic.