The lack of data on actual number of CV infections

[Bozza]

An interesting piece on the lack of data on known infections.

[MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] will take some interest in particular as it talks about the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. An excerpt:

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.​

Link: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Note: I'm not advocating any kind of "ahhhh, it IS all a fuss over nothing" sentiment as there is clearly the propensity for health services to be overwhelmed very quickly with those who do require hospital care, but it does provide a possible positive outlook with regard to the scale of "they had it, but didn't even know" group.

 

[madinthehead]

The figures are all over the place.. This is the one I use, it is in German, but is pretty self explanatory.
What is weird is that over here we have a much lower mortality rate than most places including the UK
Country Cases Recovered Dead
Deutschland 14.292 113 43
Uk 2.644 67 104

https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-virus-karte-infektionen-deutschland-weltweit/

Just makes you wonder how many people have had it and dont know it

 

[The Wizard]

The sooner we can get real data on how many people have had it without even having symptoms or minor symptoms the better really, once we get a handle on that we can found out some real statistics. Studies from Wuhan seem to indiciate the rate from anyone showing symptoms is 1.4% but with potentially 80% of cases showing little to zero symptoms it could be under 0.5%

Think we a quite a while away from being able to do these tests in the UK.

 

[Peter Grummit]

An interesting piece on the lack of data on known infections.

[MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] will take some interest in particular as it talks about the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. An excerpt:

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.​

Link: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Note: I'm not advocating any kind of "ahhhh, it IS all a fuss over nothing" sentiment as there is clearly the propensity for health services to be overwhelmed very quickly with those who do require hospital care, but it does provide a possible positive outlook with regard to the scale of "they had it, but didn't even know" group.

But presumably all those who tested positive from the Diamond Princess were prioritised with proper healthcare, ICU as necessary? Sadly, the way we are going, that isn't guaranteed to be the case. That's been the problem in parts of Northern Italy, and why perhaps the death rate is that much higher.

 

[Swansman]

If it turns out the that the dangers of this virus is heavily overestimated it comes with a set of new "problems":
- Antivaxxers will probably increase. A lot.
- Confidence in governments and science and basically the whole establishment will get a fundamental blow.
- This wolf cry would ensure that a possible future pandemic would be VERY DIFFICULT to deal with through "advice" etc

Yet I very much prefer that kind of chaos to the chaos of a very deadly pandemic.

 

[FamilyGuy]

Personally I'm much more interested to know how many people have caught the virus and have survived, than knowing how many have died.
Same info in the end, but from a more positive angle.

 

[neilbard]

An interesting piece on the lack of data on known infections.

[MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] will take some interest in particular as it talks about the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. An excerpt:

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.​

Link: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Note: I'm not advocating any kind of "ahhhh, it IS all a fuss over nothing" sentiment as there is clearly the propensity for health services to be overwhelmed very quickly with those who do require hospital care, but it does provide a possible positive outlook with regard to the scale of "they had it, but didn't even know" group.

On the subject of the Diamond Princess I think there are still 174 active cases of which there are 14 serious/critical?

 

[Mellotron]

If it turns out the that the dangers of this virus is heavily overestimated it comes with a set of new "problems":
- Antivaxxers will probably increase. A lot.
- Confidence in governments and science and basically the whole establishment will get a fundamental blow.
- This wolf cry would ensure that a possible future pandemic would be VERY DIFFICULT to deal with through "advice" etc

Yet I very much prefer that kind of chaos to the chaos of a very deadly pandemic.

The Government has to be so careful with its handling of any “good news” now. Such a hard line to tread between scare and underwhelm.

Whatever happens, there WILL be morons after the event going “it was only the fackin flu you bunch of mugs”

 

[neilbard]

The Government has to be so careful with its handling of any “good news” now. Such a hard line to tread between scare and underwhelm.

Whatever happens, there WILL be morons after the event going “it was only the fackin flu you bunch of mugs”

Agree totally, like that pissed up brit abroad yesterday on Sky News.

 

[Swansman]

The Government has to be so careful with its handling of any “good news” now. Such a hard line to tread between scare and underwhelm.

Whatever happens, there WILL be morons after the event going “it was only the fackin flu you bunch of mugs”

If it in the end turns out to be not much worse than the flu I will just hold my hands up and say "you were right and I was wrong and I'm ****ing euphoric about it."

 

[Napper]

The Government has to be so careful with its handling of any “good news” now. Such a hard line to tread between scare and underwhelm.

Whatever happens, there WILL be morons after the event going “it was only the fackin flu you bunch of mugs”

I think when it’s all said and done it will certainly be proven it was over estimated but the spin will just be in over drive that it was down to government actions that sorted it

Agree be good to get true numbers of cases that run into the tens And tens of thousands over here . Could then get the true death statistics and people may calm down a bit .

As with all stats they can be used to back anyones position up . The level headed can do it as much as the panickers. Like all things though , the ones that shout and scream the loudest tend to get heard first .

Ultimately and I hope it will be proven in the future that this is indeed over estimated for what it actually is

Expect more abuse for opinion but I know there are lots who think this that can’t be bothered to raise it anymore

People entitled to their opinions

 

[Guinness Boy]

An interesting piece on the lack of data on known infections.

[MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION] will take some interest in particular as it talks about the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. An excerpt:

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.​

Link: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

Note: I'm not advocating any kind of "ahhhh, it IS all a fuss over nothing" sentiment as there is clearly the propensity for health services to be overwhelmed very quickly with those who do require hospital care, but it does provide a possible positive outlook with regard to the scale of "they had it, but didn't even know" group.

Indeed. I've always seen it as the only constant test case although, as mentioned by yourself and others, with a fairly low sample for accurate data and also with some active cases continuing. Nevertheless, it has always been that which has made me confident we CAN get through this, though my more anxious moments go back to ignoring this. I've done a full 180 over a couple of months from "surely not that bad / only a bad flu" to "arrrgh, lock everything down". I blame the fact that my head has been all over the place. But in my few sane, rational moments, I go back to the data and think "should be ok".

But presumably all those who tested positive from the Diamond Princess were prioritised with proper healthcare, ICU as necessary? Sadly, the way we are going, that isn't guaranteed to be the case. That's been the problem in parts of Northern Italy, and why perhaps the death rate is that much higher.

I don't know that. Cruise ships do not tend to come armed with a full ICU suite and ventilators do they? Were people evacuated to Japanese hospitals? I can't remember. If they were didn't Japan have other Covid-19 cases at the time?

Italy is a worst possible case scenario, IMHO, because the majority of cases were in the same area and there were so many elderly. London could end up with a similar concentration but has a generally younger population.

Lastly, none of this should undermine the government's efforts. We are complacent at our peril. The social distancing needs more enforcing and the hording needs to stop, if we are to get through this with a minimal amount of pain.

 

[Mellotron]

If it in the end turns out to be not much worse than the flu I will just hold my hands up and say "you were right and I was wrong and I'm ****ing euphoric about it."

Arguably, it might end up similar(ish) to the flu, however we don't have a vaccine, which makes it worse, and for some situations/people, much worse.

If that makes sense.

 

[Triggaaar]

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

Another issue with using the results from the ship, is that presumably everyone there had good access to decent healthcare, as health services weren't under any strain at that point. The issue is that with millions of people infected, many wouldn't get the healthcare they need, which would push the numbers much higher.

Regardless, I'll be hoping that it's more like 0.025%

 

[Triggaaar]

I think when it’s all said and done it will certainly be proven it was over estimated

The government are hoping to keep deaths down to 20,000. Are you saying that's certainly an over estimate, and it'll be a lot less?

 

[pb21]

We really need some robust data on how many people who have had this.

 

[drew]

We really need some robust data on how many people who have had this.

Best way to achieve that is 66,000,000 daily tests. Come on Boris, get your finger out!!!

 

[pb21]

Best way to achieve that is 66,000,000 daily tests. Come on Boris, get your finger out!!!

Or a test of 10,000 random people?

Edit: actually that probably wouldn't help much yet, too small a sample? I guess they could be tested on a regular basis?

 

[Guinness Boy]

Or a test of 10,000 random people?

Edit: actually that probably wouldn't help much yet, too small a sample? I guess they could be tested on a regular basis?

No that wouldn't help at all.

Testing NHS workers as a priority and getting an antibody test ready to use retrospectively, also with NHS workers prioritised is the key to beating this, both of which are in progress. The data would be skewed because they would have been over-exposed to virus risk situations but you could probably find a suitable model adjustment before wave 2.

 

[Baldseagull]

I think in Korea, where they did a lot of testing, they found the death rate to be 0.3% of confirmed cases.