[Albion] The impact of selling big - Are we going to buck the trend?

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Fascinating @Stato
Don't take few replies as a lack of interest.

 

[Javeaseagull]

It seems that I was talking to myself on this thread, but for anyone who is interested, the sale of Trossard today takes our transfer balance for 22/23 to +86.17m Euros (75 million quid). That's the second most transfer profit that any English club has ever made in a season. Only Chelsea's 112.3m Euros in 2019/20 exceeds it. They were unable to buy players because of transfer ban that season, although still somehow managed to spend 45m of their 157m income on Kovacic.

Top five:
Chelsea 2019/20 - 112.3m
Brighton 2022/23 - 86.17m
Man Utd 2009/10 - 77.2m
Leeds 2002/03 - 75.6m
Leicester 2022/23 - 64.4m

Obviously we'd all hope that we don't overtake Chelsea. It would actually be nice to see us drop down this list before the end of the window, but unless Chelsea want to recoup some of their record breaking transfer spend* by letting us have Colwill, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't. RDZ's press conference this week seemed to be singing a bit more from the 'Happy with what I've got' hymn sheet that Barber used to issue to Graham Potter.

* - A balance of minus 368 millon Euros: - Smashing Man City's previous highest spend in 2017/18 by 140 million. FFP obviously doesn't apply in West London. GP obviously doesn't have to say that he's happy with what he's got any more. Lucky that, because at the moment, he'd probably struggle to say any sentence that starts with the words 'I'm happy'.

Well Stato, it's had over a thousand views! Hardly talking to yourself. Great post btw.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Others have bucked the trend too such MU selling Kanchelskis, Ince etc and the infamous ‘you’ll never win anything with kids’ or selling Beckham with Ronaldo waiting in the wings.

A big factor is have you done it from a position of strength? Hazard was sold as Chelsea changed managers with a transfer embargo hanging over them. Southampton ownership has changed twice and neither has had a passionate interest in the team, and since the Leicester tragedy the same might be said about them too.

Leceister is a really interesting case though as they fought to keep several players and started to give out some big contracts like they were in that top 6 group. Holding on to certain players without cashing in has potentially cost them more than letting them go because they’re now lumbered with expensive contracts they can barely afford.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Very well researched Stato.

My concern is having too much youth in the team. Whilst we have players like Dunk, Groß, Veltman, Lallana, Welbeck, Webster and March we are ok. But those brilliant senior players will need replacing at some point. If we are always selling players off in their early to mid-20’s, where are the next generation of leaders on the pitch coming from?

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

After the first half a season we've had I'll be disappointed if we don't better last season's league finish.

We've been able to sell from a position of strength - we had plenty of quality defensive options when we sold White, we had Caicedo when we sold Bissouma and we have Mitoma to fill Trossard's place. As long as we can keep doing that then we should be able to maintain a decent league position.

My concern is that we sell too much too quickly and become too reliant on the next big things. I really hope we are able to keep a core of quality senior players who can be the backbone of the team and allow the young players to develop at their own pace.

With that in mind I'm going to enjoy the hell out of our current form/success, expecting it to last a short time while hoping it'll last a long while(forever, ideally...).

 

[chaileyjem]

Great posts, really interesting to read.

My concern is that our conveyor belt of talented, undervalued players is dramatically slowing. Feels like not many have come in during the last 3 windows now. Am I wrong?

Some key signings in last few windows

Jan 21
Ferguson, Caicedo

Summer 21
Sarmiento. Cucurella, Mitoma, Mwepu, Sima

Jan 22
Koslowski, Undav,

Summer 22
Estupinan, Enciso, Adingra, Gilmour

January 23
Buonanotte, Ayari (? ), Mullins

And there’s also a bunch of Academy players on league loans - some or none might come into the first team squad (eg: weir, turns, beadle, rushworth) as well as academy prospects - Moran, Hinshelwood who have in/around the first team squad already.

If anything it feels like it’s speeding up given RDZ being so open to playing youngsters.

 

[Seagull58]

On the one hand some are worried about selling off the family silver. On the other hand a, by all accounts excellent player, like Billy Gilmour can’t get a game. He’s not the only one is he? We can’t keep stockpiling these wonderful young players. We have to sell them or play them, it is what it is!

Unfortunately, Gilmour's career has already peaked, at last year's Euros when he single-handedly thrashed England 0-0 and took the trophy back to Scotland.

 

[The Optimist]

Without me looking (cos I'm lazy) didn't Liverpool get like a gazzilion quid when they sold Courtinio? Spuds must of got a couple of quid in too on the sale of Bale?
Maybe they both spent big too?
Great thread BTW

I think Liverpool used the money to sign van Dijk and Allison.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

This thing with buying young and selling on could be a problem in itself. We've become so competitive, that a lot of these extremely talented lads are going to struggle to get into our side. Take Billy Gilmour for instance. I think he's a fantastic player, but how does he get match minutes? Who does he replace? If you've only got one game in a week you don't need to rotate as much. It helps with the five substitutes thing, but they aren't all playing football for the money. They want to play

 

[Machiavelli]

With the seemingly imminent departure of Trossard likely to push our transfer balance this season to somewhere over 80m Euros* (Unless we buy someone other than Buonanotte this month), I wondered how this compares with previous instances of big transfer balance profits and what impact making a lot of money on transfers in a single season tends to have on a team's league position.

Looking only at teams that have had a net transfer balance larger than 30 million in a single season, it seems that only three teams have ever made over 30m in a season whilst also improving their league position. Nobody has ever risen by more than a single rung.

The best performance was from West Ham in 2008/09 who made a profit of 52.8m on the sales of Mascherano, Bellamy, Anton Ferdinand, George McCartney and some bloke called Bobby Zamora and went from 10th in 2007/08 to 9th in 2008/09;
The following season, 2009/10 Arsenal reaped a profit of 35.7m from selling Adebayor and Kolo Toure and climbed from 4th to 3rd;
In 2011/12 Spurs cleared the decks of Crouch, Palacios, Pavlyunchencko and Alan Hutton, making 34.25m and improving from 5th to 4th.

Everyone else that has made this kind of profit has slipped in the table:

2019/20 Chelsea made 112.3m profit after the sale of Eden Hazard. They dropped from 3rd to 4th.
2019/20 our friends up the road mugged Man Utd for Wan-Bissaka, making a 47.8m transfer profit, but dropping from 12th to 14th;
2017/18 Southampton sold van Dijk, putting them in profit by 37.1m - dropped from 8th to 17th;
2009/10 Man Utd cashed in on Ronaldo, making 77.2m profit, but losing the title, dropping to second;
2009/10 Portsmouth's fire sale, also involving Peter Crouch, as well as Glenn Johnson and several others recovered 41.49m, but cost 6 league places and saw them relegated in 20th;
2004/05 Everton dropped from 7th to 10th after making 33.53m, but losing Rooney;
2002/03 saw Leeds becoming the first team to have a transfer balance over 30m, as they began their attempt to recoup the money they'd spent but didn't have. They made a staggering 75.6m, (Probably around 130m today, but I'm not going into inflation of the Euro, this is already too complicated) mainly on Rio Ferdinand, but also on Woodgate, Keane and Fowler. They slipped from 4th to 5th. Worse was to come for them.

Leicester have, so far made the largest profit this season. The sale of Fofana puts them 64.4m in the black;
We are, before the Trossard deal, and anything else that happens before the end of the month, in profit to the tune of 62.2m on player sales in 2022/23. We've also made a fair chunk on compensation for the coaching team, that isn't included in these figures. At present, we sit two places above our 9th place finish last year. If we can maintain or improve that position, whilst also maintaining or increasing the transfer balance sheet, it seems that it would be, by this measure (and ignoring inflation) by far the best improvement, whilst making the most profit that has ever been acheived since Rupert's footyball extravagnza began.

* All figures in Euros because that's what Transfermarkt uses

P.S. - Just for fun: In the period since Chris Hughton left at the end of the 2018/19 season, Brighton's overall transfer balance is plus 4.53m. In that period, they have moved from scraping 17th to 7th. The second highest spenders in that period are Chelsea, who, despite having a transfer ban for two windows during this period, have managed to blow 440.14m. Their phenomenal investment has seen them drop from 3rd to 10th. There must be a better way Todd. You should get in a manager who is known for building teams / improving players. You might have to be quite patient though: - We spent a lot of time in the bottom six.

The other thing to add is that this is assessed on an annual basis. We've done extremely well on sales for two years now. White went for £50m in the previous window, for instance. I'd wager that we'll also accrue a substantial profit in the summer too.
The only club I know of that has had a sustained period of profits from player transactions is Southampton, who excelled for a few years, but have lost their mojo since.
It's also worth adding that our model involves huge expenditure on scouting. Last time I heard we had 300 scouts. If that was the case, I'd be surprised if that number hasn't grown further in the interim.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

I think Liverpool used the money to sign van Dijk and Allison.

They bought van Dijk the same January they sold Coutinho.

 

[Littlemo]

This thing with buying young and selling on could be a problem in itself. We've become so competitive, that a lot of these extremely talented lads are going to struggle to get into our side. Take Billy Gilmour for instance. I think he's a fantastic player, but how does he get match minutes? Who does he replace? If you've only got one game in a week you don't need to rotate as much. It helps with the five substitutes thing, but they aren't all playing football for the money. They want to play

I guess they’ll be holding out for next year if we get European football.

I think it might be my only slight question of RDZ. I completely get why he plays the strongest team all the time but on the other hand, he really hasn’t given the younger or second string players very much significant game time.

He even said himself in a press conference that the younger players need a run of a few games for things to change for them but none of them ever seem to get that. I don’t see how any of them develop or get ready for when we need them, if he isn’t ever playing them much.

 

[nwgull]

Without me looking (cos I'm lazy) didn't Liverpool get like a gazzilion quid when they sold Courtinio? Spuds must of got a couple of quid in too on the sale of Bale?
Maybe they both spent big too?
Great thread BTW

Yeh, they sold Coutinho to Barca for about 140m and bought VVD for £75m, so a nice bit of profit for what ultimately turned out to be a very positive swap in terms of their league positions - they went from 4th to 2nd the next year and Champions the year after .

They also sold Torres to Chelsea for 50m in 2011 and replaced him with Suarez for about half that - another good bit of business.

 

[chaileyjem]

I think it might be my only slight question of RDZ. I completely get why he plays the strongest team all the time but on the other hand, he really hasn’t given the younger or second string players very much significant game time.

Ferguson (18), Colwill (19) , Sarmiento (20) have all had PL starts since the post WC restart.

 

[WestYorkshireSeagull]

Love the research in this! It's puts the years that followed for Leeds and Portsmouth into perspective

 

[Littlemo]

Ferguson (18), Colwill (19) , Sarmiento (20) have all had PL starts since the post WC restart.

They were necessity rather than choice though, with Webster and Welbeck being out. I’m not sure they’d have played if both had been fit.

 

[Davey Boy Smith]

The other thing to add is that this is assessed on an annual basis. We've done extremely well on sales for two years now. White went for £50m in the previous window, for instance. I'd wager that we'll also accrue a substantial profit in the summer too.
The only club I know of that has had a sustained period of profits from player transactions is Southampton, who excelled for a few years, but have lost their mojo since.
It's also worth adding that our model involves huge expenditure on scouting. Last time I heard we had 300 scouts. If that was the case, I'd be surprised if that number hasn't grown further in the interim.

300 scouts - wow! That's an incredible network to have to keep for confidentiality and buying/securing their loyalty so they don't pass the analysis to anyone else.

I wonder how scouts are paid: a payment per scouting report? Retainer/exclusivity fee? Bonus when a player is signed and even when sold? A simple salary? Or combination of all of these?

 

[chaileyjem]

They were necessity rather than choice though, with Webster and Welbeck being out. I’m not sure they’d have played if both had been fit.

Well today he’s picked Van Hecke in preference to Webster. Bit of a stretch to suggest RDZ is a coach who blocks chances for young players.

 

[Littlemo]

Well today he’s picked Van Hecke in preference to Webster. Bit of a stretch to suggest RDZ is a coach who blocks chances for young players.

I never said he was blocking them, just not maybe giving them as many chances as he could. I’m glad Van Hecke is in but it’s a shame that Ferguson is dropped now Welbeck is fit again.

 

[Washie]

I never said he was blocking them, just not maybe giving them as many chances as he could. I’m glad Van Hecke is in but it’s a shame that Ferguson is dropped now Welbeck is fit again.

Welbeck scored last week, you have to give him a chance this week.