[Albion] The impact of selling big - Are we going to buck the trend?

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Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,367
With the seemingly imminent departure of Trossard likely to push our transfer balance this season to somewhere over 80m Euros* (Unless we buy someone other than Buonanotte this month), I wondered how this compares with previous instances of big transfer balance profits and what impact making a lot of money on transfers in a single season tends to have on a team's league position.

Looking only at teams that have had a net transfer balance larger than 30 million in a single season, it seems that only three teams have ever made over 30m in a season whilst also improving their league position. Nobody has ever risen by more than a single rung.

The best performance was from West Ham in 2008/09 who made a profit of 52.8m on the sales of Mascherano, Bellamy, Anton Ferdinand, George McCartney and some bloke called Bobby Zamora and went from 10th in 2007/08 to 9th in 2008/09;
The following season, 2009/10 Arsenal reaped a profit of 35.7m from selling Adebayor and Kolo Toure and climbed from 4th to 3rd;
In 2011/12 Spurs cleared the decks of Crouch, Palacios, Pavlyunchencko and Alan Hutton, making 34.25m and improving from 5th to 4th.

Everyone else that has made this kind of profit has slipped in the table:

2019/20 Chelsea made 112.3m profit after the sale of Eden Hazard. They dropped from 3rd to 4th.
2019/20 our friends up the road mugged Man Utd for Wan-Bissaka, making a 47.8m transfer profit, but dropping from 12th to 14th;
2017/18 Southampton sold van Dijk, putting them in profit by 37.1m - dropped from 8th to 17th;
2009/10 Man Utd cashed in on Ronaldo, making 77.2m profit, but losing the title, dropping to second;
2009/10 Portsmouth's fire sale, also involving Peter Crouch, as well as Glenn Johnson and several others recovered 41.49m, but cost 6 league places and saw them relegated in 20th;
2004/05 Everton dropped from 7th to 10th after making 33.53m, but losing Rooney;
2002/03 saw Leeds becoming the first team to have a transfer balance over 30m, as they began their attempt to recoup the money they'd spent but didn't have. They made a staggering 75.6m, (Probably around 130m today, but I'm not going into inflation of the Euro, this is already too complicated) mainly on Rio Ferdinand, but also on Woodgate, Keane and Fowler. They slipped from 4th to 5th. Worse was to come for them.

Leicester have, so far made the largest profit this season. The sale of Fofana puts them 64.4m in the black;
We are, before the Trossard deal, and anything else that happens before the end of the month, in profit to the tune of 62.2m on player sales in 2022/23. We've also made a fair chunk on compensation for the coaching team, that isn't included in these figures. At present, we sit two places above our 9th place finish last year. If we can maintain or improve that position, whilst also maintaining or increasing the transfer balance sheet, it seems that it would be, by this measure (and ignoring inflation) by far the best improvement, whilst making the most profit that has ever been acheived since Rupert's footyball extravagnza began.

* All figures in Euros because that's what Transfermarkt uses

P.S. - Just for fun: In the period since Chris Hughton left at the end of the 2018/19 season, Brighton's overall transfer balance is plus 4.53m. In that period, they have moved from scraping 17th to 7th. The second highest spenders in that period are Chelsea, who, despite having a transfer ban for two windows during this period, have managed to blow 440.14m. Their phenomenal investment has seen them drop from 3rd to 10th. There must be a better way Todd. You should get in a manager who is known for building teams / improving players. You might have to be quite patient though: - We spent a lot of time in the bottom six.
 




Stato

Well-known member
Dec 21, 2011
7,367
It seems that I was talking to myself on this thread, but for anyone who is interested, the sale of Trossard today takes our transfer balance for 22/23 to +86.17m Euros (75 million quid). That's the second most transfer profit that any English club has ever made in a season. Only Chelsea's 112.3m Euros in 2019/20 exceeds it. They were unable to buy players because of transfer ban that season, although still somehow managed to spend 45m of their 157m income on Kovacic.

Top five:
Chelsea 2019/20 - 112.3m
Brighton 2022/23 - 86.17m
Man Utd 2009/10 - 77.2m
Leeds 2002/03 - 75.6m
Leicester 2022/23 - 64.4m

Obviously we'd all hope that we don't overtake Chelsea. It would actually be nice to see us drop down this list before the end of the window, but unless Chelsea want to recoup some of their record breaking transfer spend* by letting us have Colwill, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't. RDZ's press conference this week seemed to be singing a bit more from the 'Happy with what I've got' hymn sheet that Barber used to issue to Graham Potter.

* - A balance of minus 368 millon Euros: - Smashing Man City's previous highest spend in 2017/18 by 140 million. FFP obviously doesn't apply in West London. GP obviously doesn't have to say that he's happy with what he's got any more. Lucky that, because at the moment, he'd probably struggle to say any sentence that starts with the words 'I'm happy'.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,015
so far there's been a clear replacement for each sale, and not just a name on the roster but actual proven talent. all the difference to make this work.

much rather take this approach than be one of those clubs that dont sell, dont change the squad and usually dont do well as they have tired, coasting or disgruntled players.
 




Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,070
Only Chelsea's 112.3m Euros in 2019/20 exceeds it. They were unable to buy players because of transfer ban that season, although still somehow managed to spend 45m of their 157m income on Kovacic.
Chelsea were allowed to sign Kovacic as the transfer ban didn't stop them turning an existing loan move into a permanent deal due to the fact the player was already registered with the club before the ban took effect.
 




MJsGhost

Oooh Matron, I'm an
NSC Patron
Jun 26, 2009
5,026
East
It seems that I was talking to myself on this thread, but for anyone who is interested, the sale of Trossard today takes our transfer balance for 22/23 to +86.17m Euros (75 million quid). That's the second most transfer profit that any English club has ever made in a season. Only Chelsea's 112.3m Euros in 2019/20 exceeds it. They were unable to buy players because of transfer ban that season, although still somehow managed to spend 45m of their 157m income on Kovacic.

Top five:
Chelsea 2019/20 - 112.3m
Brighton 2022/23 - 86.17m
Man Utd 2009/10 - 77.2m
Leeds 2002/03 - 75.6m
Leicester 2022/23 - 64.4m

Obviously we'd all hope that we don't overtake Chelsea. It would actually be nice to see us drop down this list before the end of the window, but unless Chelsea want to recoup some of their record breaking transfer spend* by letting us have Colwill, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't. RDZ's press conference this week seemed to be singing a bit more from the 'Happy with what I've got' hymn sheet that Barber used to issue to Graham Potter.

* - A balance of minus 368 millon Euros: - Smashing Man City's previous highest spend in 2017/18 by 140 million. FFP obviously doesn't apply in West London. GP obviously doesn't have to say that he's happy with what he's got any more. Lucky that, because at the moment, he'd probably struggle to say any sentence that starts with the words 'I'm happy'.
If only there was some kind of football inflation calculator to adjust the figures based on when they were posted. I'd imagine that the Leeds profit from 02/03 will be top by a stretch.

Are there any DULLARDS on here who might know of one?!

Top work on the number crunching Stato - I found it far more interesting than the number of replies you've had suggests!
 




Jul 20, 2003
20,681
With the seemingly imminent departure of Trossard likely to push our transfer balance this season to somewhere over 80m Euros* (Unless we buy someone other than Buonanotte this month), I wondered how this compares with previous instances of big transfer balance profits and what impact making a lot of money on transfers in a single season tends to have on a team's league position.

Looking only at teams that have had a net transfer balance larger than 30 million in a single season, it seems that only three teams have ever made over 30m in a season whilst also improving their league position. Nobody has ever risen by more than a single rung.

The best performance was from West Ham in 2008/09 who made a profit of 52.8m on the sales of Mascherano, Bellamy, Anton Ferdinand, George McCartney and some bloke called Bobby Zamora and went from 10th in 2007/08 to 9th in 2008/09;
The following season, 2009/10 Arsenal reaped a profit of 35.7m from selling Adebayor and Kolo Toure and climbed from 4th to 3rd;
In 2011/12 Spurs cleared the decks of Crouch, Palacios, Pavlyunchencko and Alan Hutton, making 34.25m and improving from 5th to 4th.

Everyone else that has made this kind of profit has slipped in the table:

2019/20 Chelsea made 112.3m profit after the sale of Eden Hazard. They dropped from 3rd to 4th.
2019/20 our friends up the road mugged Man Utd for Wan-Bissaka, making a 47.8m transfer profit, but dropping from 12th to 14th;
2017/18 Southampton sold van Dijk, putting them in profit by 37.1m - dropped from 8th to 17th;
2009/10 Man Utd cashed in on Ronaldo, making 77.2m profit, but losing the title, dropping to second;
2009/10 Portsmouth's fire sale, also involving Peter Crouch, as well as Glenn Johnson and several others recovered 41.49m, but cost 6 league places and saw them relegated in 20th;
2004/05 Everton dropped from 7th to 10th after making 33.53m, but losing Rooney;
2002/03 saw Leeds becoming the first team to have a transfer balance over 30m, as they began their attempt to recoup the money they'd spent but didn't have. They made a staggering 75.6m, (Probably around 130m today, but I'm not going into inflation of the Euro, this is already too complicated) mainly on Rio Ferdinand, but also on Woodgate, Keane and Fowler. They slipped from 4th to 5th. Worse was to come for them.

Leicester have, so far made the largest profit this season. The sale of Fofana puts them 64.4m in the black;
We are, before the Trossard deal, and anything else that happens before the end of the month, in profit to the tune of 62.2m on player sales in 2022/23. We've also made a fair chunk on compensation for the coaching team, that isn't included in these figures. At present, we sit two places above our 9th place finish last year. If we can maintain or improve that position, whilst also maintaining or increasing the transfer balance sheet, it seems that it would be, by this measure (and ignoring inflation) by far the best improvement, whilst making the most profit that has ever been acheived since Rupert's footyball extravagnza began.

* All figures in Euros because that's what Transfermarkt uses

P.S. - Just for fun: In the period since Chris Hughton left at the end of the 2018/19 season, Brighton's overall transfer balance is plus 4.53m. In that period, they have moved from scraping 17th to 7th. The second highest spenders in that period are Chelsea, who, despite having a transfer ban for two windows during this period, have managed to blow 440.14m. Their phenomenal investment has seen them drop from 3rd to 10th. There must be a better way Todd. You should get in a manager who is known for building teams / improving players. You might have to be quite patient though: - We spent a lot of time in the bottom six.

Wasn't it Leeds who spunked it up the wall on goldfish?
 








Whoislloydy

Well-known member
May 2, 2016
2,495
Vancouver, British Columbia
If only there was some kind of football inflation calculator to adjust the figures based on when they were posted. I'd imagine that the Leeds profit from 02/03 will be top by a stretch.

Are there any DULLARDS on here who might know of one?!

Top work on the number crunching Stato - I found it far more interesting than the number of replies you've had suggests!
It's about 125m in todays money

EDIT: sorry you wanted a specific football inflation calculator. Nevermind.
 






Javeaseagull

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 22, 2014
2,828
On the one hand some are worried about selling off the family silver. On the other hand a, by all accounts excellent player, like Billy Gilmour can’t get a game. He’s not the only one is he? We can’t keep stockpiling these wonderful young players. We have to sell them or play them, it is what it is!
 


Magicman

Active member
Jul 19, 2011
293
Elm Grove
Without me looking (cos I'm lazy) didn't Liverpool get like a gazzilion quid when they sold Courtinio? Spuds must of got a couple of quid in too on the sale of Bale?
Maybe they both spent big too?
Great thread BTW 👍
 




Nobby Cybergoat

Well-known member
Jul 19, 2021
8,624
Good to have a walk down memory lane OP. I suppose what is pertinent for us is whether there are any team in PL (or anywhere )history who have sold their best players year on year and continued to rise up the table.

My guess is no there isn't. Not that i'm saying we should be doing anything differently, more that we should be realistic about football gravity kicking in at some stage
 


Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,773
Fiveways
Without me looking (cos I'm lazy) didn't Liverpool get like a gazzilion quid when they sold Courtinio? Spuds must of got a couple of quid in too on the sale of Bale?
Maybe they both spent big too?
Great thread BTW 👍
Spurs spent a fortune on c6/8 players with that Bale money. A lot went on Soldado, who failed. They did buy Eriksen though, who was a resounding success.
 


Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,773
Fiveways
With the seemingly imminent departure of Trossard likely to push our transfer balance this season to somewhere over 80m Euros* (Unless we buy someone other than Buonanotte this month), I wondered how this compares with previous instances of big transfer balance profits and what impact making a lot of money on transfers in a single season tends to have on a team's league position.

Looking only at teams that have had a net transfer balance larger than 30 million in a single season, it seems that only three teams have ever made over 30m in a season whilst also improving their league position. Nobody has ever risen by more than a single rung.

The best performance was from West Ham in 2008/09 who made a profit of 52.8m on the sales of Mascherano, Bellamy, Anton Ferdinand, George McCartney and some bloke called Bobby Zamora and went from 10th in 2007/08 to 9th in 2008/09;
The following season, 2009/10 Arsenal reaped a profit of 35.7m from selling Adebayor and Kolo Toure and climbed from 4th to 3rd;
In 2011/12 Spurs cleared the decks of Crouch, Palacios, Pavlyunchencko and Alan Hutton, making 34.25m and improving from 5th to 4th.

Everyone else that has made this kind of profit has slipped in the table:

2019/20 Chelsea made 112.3m profit after the sale of Eden Hazard. They dropped from 3rd to 4th.
2019/20 our friends up the road mugged Man Utd for Wan-Bissaka, making a 47.8m transfer profit, but dropping from 12th to 14th;
2017/18 Southampton sold van Dijk, putting them in profit by 37.1m - dropped from 8th to 17th;
2009/10 Man Utd cashed in on Ronaldo, making 77.2m profit, but losing the title, dropping to second;
2009/10 Portsmouth's fire sale, also involving Peter Crouch, as well as Glenn Johnson and several others recovered 41.49m, but cost 6 league places and saw them relegated in 20th;
2004/05 Everton dropped from 7th to 10th after making 33.53m, but losing Rooney;
2002/03 saw Leeds becoming the first team to have a transfer balance over 30m, as they began their attempt to recoup the money they'd spent but didn't have. They made a staggering 75.6m, (Probably around 130m today, but I'm not going into inflation of the Euro, this is already too complicated) mainly on Rio Ferdinand, but also on Woodgate, Keane and Fowler. They slipped from 4th to 5th. Worse was to come for them.

Leicester have, so far made the largest profit this season. The sale of Fofana puts them 64.4m in the black;
We are, before the Trossard deal, and anything else that happens before the end of the month, in profit to the tune of 62.2m on player sales in 2022/23. We've also made a fair chunk on compensation for the coaching team, that isn't included in these figures. At present, we sit two places above our 9th place finish last year. If we can maintain or improve that position, whilst also maintaining or increasing the transfer balance sheet, it seems that it would be, by this measure (and ignoring inflation) by far the best improvement, whilst making the most profit that has ever been acheived since Rupert's footyball extravagnza began.

* All figures in Euros because that's what Transfermarkt uses

P.S. - Just for fun: In the period since Chris Hughton left at the end of the 2018/19 season, Brighton's overall transfer balance is plus 4.53m. In that period, they have moved from scraping 17th to 7th. The second highest spenders in that period are Chelsea, who, despite having a transfer ban for two windows during this period, have managed to blow 440.14m. Their phenomenal investment has seen them drop from 3rd to 10th. There must be a better way Todd. You should get in a manager who is known for building teams / improving players. You might have to be quite patient though: - We spent a lot of time in the bottom six.
The simple answer is the most boring: it's too early to tell. If you want me to express a hunch then, I suspect we will. Just to be an arse -- which is something I excel at -- might it be similarly interesting to establish how how many points were lost?
That said, I'm hoping this thread gets bounced over the next few years.
 


Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
Great posts, really interesting to read.

My concern is that our conveyor belt of talented, undervalued players is dramatically slowing. Feels like not many have come in during the last 3 windows now. Am I wrong?
 




Kalimantan Gull

Well-known member
Aug 13, 2003
13,438
Central Borneo / the Lizard
Great posts, really interesting to read.

My concern is that our conveyor belt of talented, undervalued players is dramatically slowing. Feels like not many have come in during the last 3 windows now. Am I wrong?
Assuming that we would have described Mac Allister, Mitoma, Caicedo, van Hecke etc as talented undervalued players when we bought them, in the last three windows before this one we've added Adingra, Enciso, Gilmour, Kozlowski, Scherpen, Undav, Sima, Sarmiento as well as Cucurella, Estupinan and Mwepu for larger fees, and Buonanotte and Ayari (looks like) already in this window. Won't all make it but that's the business. Not to mention a bunch more kids who may turn into the next Ferguson or Sanchez.
 




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