The great election rollercoaster...

[Dandyman]

So, since 2007 we have predicted a Brown win, a Cameron landslide and now..

Current Prediction: Conservative short 14 of majority

Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 41.09% 312
LAB 36.21% 346 34.08% 274
LIB 22.65% 67 15.82% 23

Anyone care for a flutter?

 

[DTES]

23 for the Lib Dems? Oh dear Nick, oh dear...

 

[Westdene Seagull]

So, since 2007 we have predicted a Brown win, a Cameron landslide and now..

Current Prediction: Conservative short 14 of majority

Party 2005 Votes 2005 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 33.24% 208 41.09% 312
LAB 36.21% 346 34.08% 274
LIB 22.65% 67 15.82% 23

Anyone care for a flutter?

I quite like the idea of a hung parliment - maybe PR would be a better way of counting votes ?

 

[DTES]

Agreed WS. Even STV would be an improvement on the joke of a system we've got now.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It would be ironic if the Lib Dems held the balance of power just when they're at their weakest for well over a decade.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

What poll is that based on, or is that you prediction

 

[Dandyman]

What poll is that based on, or is that you prediction

It's from the Election Calculus website and is a synthesis of opinion polls from the last couple of months. My prediction is that I'm not making a prediction until nearer the actual election.

 

[bigc]

It would be ironic if the Lib Dems held the balance of power just when they're at their weakest for well over a decade.

Exactly and a situation that could tear them apart. I could see Clegg working with Cameron easily but would the more left elements such as old Simon Hughes be as keen or their MPs that got elected in University towns for trying to be left wing..

 

[Boroseagull]

I quite like the idea of a hung parliment - maybe PR would be a better way of counting votes ?

Better to hang the contents of Parliament!

 

[The Large One]

With about 37 seats going to others (Plaid Cymru, SNP, various Northern Ireland parties), political affiliations would be interesting.

Labour and Lib Dems - up until a year or so ago - would have probably got together. Not sure now. The Tories could probably count on the DUP and UUP for support - should there be any in Westminster. The Welsh and Scottish Nationalists - hard to call. Depend on what each part is offering.

 

[captainmorganrum]

Labour and Lib Dems - up until a year or so ago - would have probably got together. Not sure now. The Tories could probably count on the DUP and UUP for support - should there be any in Westminster. The Welsh and Scottish Nationalists - hard to call. Depend on what each part is offering.

Based on what happened in the last Welsh assembly, I reckon Plaid Cymru would ally itself with Labour.
From Wikipedia...
Following the 2007 election, no party held a majority of seats in the Assembly. On Friday 25 May 2007, Rhodri Morgan was renominated unopposed as First Minister, the Queen then confirmed his appointment. Talk of a Plaid-led "Rainbow Coalition" with the Tories and the Liberal Democrats came to nothing. Instead a Welsh Labour-led "Red-Green" coalition between the Welsh Labour Party and Plaid Cymru was formed. The deal was ratified by a special party conference of Welsh Labour members on 6 July 2007 and a National Council of Plaid Cymru members on 7 July 2007

 

[Titanic]

The latest MORI poll gives the Conservatives an 11% lead...

Ipsos MORI's Pre-Budget Report Poll carried out exclusively for the Observer (conducted by telephone between 27-28 November 2008 among 1,017 adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Labour Party's share has dropped by five percentage points to 32% since our previous voting intention poll completed in mid-November (interviewing 14-16 November). Both the Conservatives' and the Liberal Democrats' share of the vote have increased by three percentage points. The Conservatives are now on 43% and the Liberal Democrats 15%.

 

[Hatterlovesbrighton]

With about 37 seats going to others (Plaid Cymru, SNP, various Northern Ireland parties), political affiliations would be interesting.

Labour and Lib Dems - up until a year or so ago - would have probably got together. Not sure now. The Tories could probably count on the DUP and UUP for support - should there be any in Westminster. The Welsh and Scottish Nationalists - hard to call. Depend on what each part is offering.

No way that Labour would form an alliance with the SNP at Westminster. Possibly PC but they have fewer seats I think. Lib/lab alliance still possible. Lib dems would give anything if Labour promised electoral reform in exchange