Screaming J
He'll put a spell on you
Sorry, not a tipping post but did you realise that in the 1st World War they actually ran the Grand National in Sussex? at the old Gatwick racecourse. I didn't until yesterday - it was in the Observer.
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The Grand National Thread
- Thread starter Uncle Spielberg
- Start date
Marshy
Well-known member
Southern Vic for me. Hopefully he can get his boy Ruby Walsh riding it, then watch the odds drop sharpish.
Dont know what his odds are now, might have to investigate further.
Dont know what his odds are now, might have to investigate further.
tottenhamseagull
New member
- Jul 7, 2008
- 1,300
looks like Ruby will be on My Will if the ground is right for him!
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
- Thread starter
- #24
Butler's Cabin now 9/1 second favourite.
Barry Izbak
U.T.A.
Ruby has now elected to ride My Will. I have broken one of my golden rules and had a serious bet on the Grand National. Come on Ruby!!
crodonilson
He/Him
Hannibal, you did a cracking statistical breakdown of the race last year, did you get it from somewhere or was it your own work??
Hannibal smith
New member
The main trends which I have used have been extracted from the book in the link below although the predictions were entirely different. I follow jump racing all year round and used to do some tinpot radio racing journo work so there is plenty of my thinking behind it. By my time of writing last year I was looking for a value bet for a works newsletter and there was none last year in Cloudy Lane which was the stand out pick. As It happened it ran a stinker but it did highlight 2 of the first 4.
The Aintree and Punchestown Festivals BettingAmazon.co.uk: Paul Jones: Books
Mtoto originally recommended the Paul Jones betting guide for Cheltenham and it was the best advice I have ever received off anyone on NSC. As a punter it gives you an edge especially the horses to dismiss in big handicaps. Luckily most people ignore them which means there is value by ignoring the obvious well backed favourite and following some trends in big races. In summary the main trends for the national are
• Ignore anything without winning form over 3 miles (1970 since last horse, Gay Trip won without)
• Ignore anything set to carry over 11st (or 11st 5lbs and treat each horse on own merit between 11st and 11st 5lb as the handicap is being compressed to allow the horses at the top of the weights a greater chance). Only Hedgehunter in recent years off 11st 1lb and Red Rum the last at the high end of the handicap
• Ignore horses 7 years or younger and 12 years or older
• French breds have not won for 100 years and have made up 25% of the field in recent years (easily identifiable with an FR next to their name). The theory is that French breds are bred for speed not stamina. A couple have come close (Clan Royal desperately unlucky a few years back and Butlers Cabin has won at over 4m round Cheltenham). Given the numbers they make up, one will probably win sooner or later but until they do I won’t be backing one especially one that is low in the betting such as My Will or Butlers cabin for something that should be priced significantly higher.
Do all the above and you won’t have more than a dozen horses left to choose from.
I’ve got to do the same again for my work newsletter by Wednesday so I’ll post it on here when its done.
Scotty Mac
New member
- Jul 13, 2003
- 24,405
hopefully ruby can take his form from cheltenham into this one - got to be better than last years performance anyway
patchamalbion
Well-known member
iv gone for £5 e/w on
'my will' and tiger woods for the masters
'my will' and tiger woods for the masters
Ernest
Stupid IDIOT
The forecast is for a warm drying week so it will be good fast ground come Saturday which will wreck a lot of horses chances and give the classier top weighted horses more of a look in this year.
Mtoto
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,858
War of Attrition is now a non-runner. Couldn't have won with that weight anyway though.
Thanks for the mention btw Hannibal, glad to help. I trust your Cheltenham was a profitable one with the likes of Ninetieth Minute, Chapoturgeon and Oh Crick all going in for the trends followers.
Thanks for the mention btw Hannibal, glad to help. I trust your Cheltenham was a profitable one with the likes of Ninetieth Minute, Chapoturgeon and Oh Crick all going in for the trends followers.
Hannibal smith
New member
I had a great Cheltenham. I missed Ninetieth minute in the William Hill as I listened to Ferdy Murphy who was sweet on Hot Welds chance. In my defence he did tip up the years previous winner (nine de saviola or whatever it was called) but had the other 2 especially Oh Crick which was the icing on the cake of an excellent Friday. I had backed Kauto star at 8,7 & 6’s before Denman run at Kempton as I was convinced Kauto didn’t run its race in the 2008 Gold Cup (In the paddock he was traipsing around like a sulky teenager). This year he was so buoyant before the race I even topped up my bets at 7/4. Very nice when your view is backed up.
The Lemming Stomper
Under the flag
You MUST have a horse that likes the top of the ground as it's likely to be riding on the fast side...
Cornish Sett fits the bill and at 28/1 will carry my e/w money
Cornish Sett fits the bill and at 28/1 will carry my e/w money
The Auditor
New member
probably Darkness for me althought I will wait for hannibal smiths report before finalising
Hannibal smith
New member
Here it is. Just in case anyone points it out (1) Some of the horses names are spelt wrong and I'll check before i submit (Kilbaggen blade especially) and (2) I need to check that is was 3m 2 that Fleet street was running on at. Either way its not a doubtful stayer in my view.
----
Welcome to the Grand National preview 2009. A 40 runner handicap can look daunting to back the winner but using past analysis we can eliminate a large quantity of the field using factors such as weight, age, form, stamina and Racism.
What do you think of the French? Nicolas Sarkozy? Shifty? David Ginola? Lazy? Monsieur LeClerc from Allo Allo? Incompetent? Well. It’s not just their Politicians, ageing footballers and fictional resistance fighters that we don’t trust. It’s their horses as well. No French bred horse has won the national in the past 100 years and in the past 2 years have made up over 25% of the field including the favourite in 2007 and second favourite in 2008. None have made the frame. On that basis we can discount Cerium, Golden Flight, Iron Man, Kelami, L’ami, Mon Mome and most notably My Will and Butlers Cabin with a nonchalant Gallic flick of the pen.
The biggest gamble I’ve ever seen was in the 2007 Gold Cup on My Will. 30 minutes before the off one of the regulars in my local pub, Billy, collapsed. We knew it was serious - he spilt his pint. As the ambulance took our heart attack victim away one wag suggested that this was a message from god to back My Will. In a pub with standing room only everyone to a man backed it off the boards. Sadly it was misplaced but when Billy recovered he saw the funny side. He had backed the winner Kauto Star.
Coupled with the French bred stat is Paul Nicholls abject record in the national who trains My Will. He has only ever had one placed horse from over 40 runners in the national. Given that he also had a hard Cheltenham race, 8-1 is no price for his chance despite his generously allocated weight. A case can be argued for Butlers Cabin who has form over 3m but he fell last year and Tony McCoy is another with a bad national record to overcome and he will surely ride Butlers Cabin although he has yet to publicly state this. A short price of 9-1 means he should be passed over as well.
Next to go are overweight horses. I don’t mean obese, Pie munching, salad dodging dobbins but those who are set to carry too much. For the uninitiated, each horse is allocated a weight in the National with the best horse allocated the highest weight to carry (up to 12st) and the worst the least (down to 10st). In theory this should make the race fair. In practice, trainers target specific races prior to the national masking the horses true rating. This is by running over too short a distance or over hurdles to keep the horse fit but not to endanger its official rating. This means that horses at the top end of the handicap are ‘exposed’ having a rating to reflect their best performance.
Not since RED RUM has a horse won carrying more than 11st 5lb and only Hedgehunter has won carrying over 11st since then. Over 11st 5lb, Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply or Die, Ollie Magern, , Hear the Echo, Priests Leap & Black Appachi can be discounted. The latter should be watched if the ground comes up soft as he has excellent course form in those conditions but the handicapper clearly saw his last Aintree run too. Of those carrying over 11st Big Fella thanks and Euro Trek can be removed on age grounds. Silver Birch is no Red rum and isn’t my idea of a dual national winner. This leaves State of Play of all runners over 11st. I fancy him for a place and he should take to Aintree given his liking for flat tracks. I would imagine something will come out of the lower handicapped pack to beat him.
Next to go are doubtful stayers. Horses without winning form over 3m should be omitted. Dwain Chambers wouldn’t win a marathon even if the prize was for a cabinet full of steroids and Paula Radcliffe wouldn’t beat me in a sprint to the toilet. Not since Gay Trip in 1970 has a horse won the national without this form in the bag. Of those not already discounted Tumbling Dice, Arteea, Maljimar, Musica Bella and Irish Invader are struck off with confidence. Seasonal debutants are next to go. National winners are generally trained all year with the race in mind and those without a run surely aren’t fit enough to triumph. Zabenz can be removed as can Offshore account. He surely has enough weight considering his long absences from the track and would be a suitably unpopular named winner given how bankers are currently viewed alongside Fred West and the Nazi’s.
Horses younger than 8 have not triumphed in this race now for 69 years. Whilst this is an amusing number it’s no good for betting purposes. The national is for experienced horses and it’s not surprising when you consider the carnage that has sometimes ensued in previous years. Big Fella Thanks (7) and Eurotrek (13 – too old) have already gone but Pomme Tiepy (6 years old) and Can’t buy time (7) can also have the red pen treatment.
This leaves us with a more manageable 12 runners. Of those Cornish Sett is a difficult sort and another to suffer from the Paul Nicholls trained 1 placed from 40 runners stat. Parson Legacy, Kilbaggen bride & Brooklyn brownie need softer ground than they are likely to get. Fundamentalist and Battlecry may not be likely to stay although that accusation has also been levelled at Fleet Street and Idle Talk by many a racing pundit. I don’t see it for Fleet Street – he was running on strongly after 3m 2 at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t put anyone off throwing a few quid at him especially on a flat track. Idle Talk’s trainer knows a thing or two about national winners (Donald Mccain, son to Ginger who trained Red Rum and Amberleigh House to victory) and he is convinced he is better trained this year to stay the 4m 4f and that 66-1 is an outstanding bet. If he stays he could spring a surprise and I’ll be backing E/W for a place.
This Leaves 4 horses. Himalayan Trail, Darkness, Rambling Minster and Southern Vic. Southern Vic is an Irish horse with a profile similar to Papillion who won a few years back for trainer Ted Walsh. His slight negatives are that his son Ruby Walsh prefers to ride My Will and that there is a feeling he would favour softer ground. I sense that Ruby Walsh may have picked My Will with diplomacy in mind (given the plum rides he receives from the same owner trainer combination) but I can’t help feel his judgement is one of the better in the paddock as his pick on Cooldine over various alternatives at Cheltenham this year show. Shame, as everything else is in his favour but I have just stopped short of fancying him for a place.
Himalayan Trail is another Irish raider but has not been on form this year. It would be no surprise to see him leave that behind especially as he has form over long distances and his trainer has won the national with Monty’s pass. I can’t put you off if you fancy him.
Darkness ticks all the right boxes but there are doubts over the quality of the opposition that he beat last time out. Even so, he is value at this current price of 25-1 and is good enough to make the frame and worth an E/W bet.
The pick of the bunch though is RAMBLING MINSTER. He has great, age, Weight, form, races prominently (imperative at Aintree) and won impressively last time out over 3m 4f at Haydock. He is my main bet for the race and has no negatives to speak of except that 10-1 won’t make you rich if he wins.
Good Luck.
Prediction.
1. Rambling Minster 10-1
2. Darkness 25-1
3. State of Play 16-1
4. Idle Talk 66-1
tottenhamseagull
New member
- Jul 7, 2008
- 1,300
Hannibal what are your thoughts on offshore account?
