Leekbrookgull
Well-known member
What are horse,s are having ?
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The Grand National 2008
- Thread starter Leekbrookgull
- Start date
Ding Dong !
Boy I'm HOT today !
What are horse,s are having ?
?What are horses ?..... well they are four legged creatures, with a long face and even bigger c*cks !!!
Billy Seagull
Bookie Basher
- Jul 5, 2003
- 1,445
Backed Comply or Die a few weeks ago at 16/1, Point Barrow months ago at 25/1, Mon Mome at 40/1. I'm also fishing for huge prices on Kelami and Idle Talk on Betfair. Cloudy Lane looks thrown in but taking 5/1 in the National isn't for me.
Uncle Spielberg
Well-known member
Butler's Cabin will win 16/1 now
MORTY
Well-known member
sod1
New member
comply or die 10-1
mckelvey 20-1
idle talk 50-1
burntoakboy 66-1
mckelvey 20-1
idle talk 50-1
burntoakboy 66-1
¡Cereal Killer!
Whale Oil Beef Hooked
I'm going for butlers cabin and Simon 
What are horses ?..... well they are four legged creatures, with a long face and even bigger c*cks !!!
Normally answer to the name Ruud.
Conkers
Well-known member
Turko won me some money at Cheltenham so may back it again 
Juan Albion
Chicken Sniffer 3rd Class
What are horse,s are having ?
Hay?
Hannibal smith
New member
I did a stats piece for our works newsletter. Should cite Paul Jones Aintree betting guide for a lot of the info.
With 40 runners to choose from it is not surprising that the Grand National is often regarding as a pin sticking race by most once a year punters. The race, however, has been subject to some strong trends that can eliminate over ¾ of the field on strong statistical grounds and this year is no exception.
One statistic that is the punting equivalent of steaming full steam ahead into an iceberg is backing a French bred horse. The Titanic had yet to be built, the entente cordiale had just been signed and Newcastle United had just won the league when a French bred last won the National 99 years ago. Whilst the competing numbers had been sparse up to 10 years ago, they have supplied 25% of runners since including the favorite (Monkerhostin) and 10 others last year. They all finishing out of the frame. On that grounds we can expect TURKO, MADISON DE BERLAIS, OPERA MUNDI, IRON MAN, BUTLERS CABIN, VODKA BLEU, L’AMI, NO FULL, MON MOME, KELAMI, MILAN DEUX MILLE and NADOVER to stay as ineffectively as the Maginot line. If the Tricole still takes your fancy BUTLERS CABIN has won over 3 miles at Cheltenham festival in 2007 and MON MORE has good form in big handicaps but the former has average form this year and the later has made jumping mistakes in his only start. French horses simply aren’t bred for the distance and will be panting away and dreaming of munching on stilton and brie long before 4m 4f is out. Viva L’Angleterre.
With 28 horses left, we can also remove those at the top end of the Handicap. For the uninitiated, each horse is allocated a weight in the National with the best horse allocated the highest weight to carry (up to 12st) and the worst the least (down to 10st). In theory this should make the race fair. In practice, trainers target specific races masking the horses true rating. This is by running over too short a distance or over hurdles to keep the horse fit but not to endanger its official rating. This means that horses at the top end of the handicap are ‘exposed’ having a rating to reflect their best performance and rarely win big handicap races and the National is no exception. Horses often win from the lower end of the handicap who are carrying less weight than their true ability to date has suggested. The last horse to win carrying more than 11st 5lbs was RED RUM and 75 have tried since. We can wave goodbye to HEDGEHUNTER, HI CLOY, KNOWHERE, MR POINTMENT, OLLIE MAGERN & SIMON as well as any French breds who we have already discounted.
Age is the next factor to consider. Novices or horses younger than 8 struggle with no winner less than 8 years old recorded for 68 years. Only 1 of 25 six or 7 year olds has even completed, let alone won the race, in the intervening period. The National is an old mans game and BOB HALL can be eliminated as a 7 year old. Next to go are out and out stayers. Not since 1998 has a genuine soft ground run all day horse won (Earth Summit) in torrential rain and given the ground will be no worse than Good to Soft we can expect NAUNTON BROOK, PHILSON RUN, D’ARGENT and CHELSEA HARBOUR to find at least one with more speed and too good for them in the home straight. These, though, can still be considered for each way value.
Conversely, horses without winning form over 3m fair badly in the National and should be struck of the list without this basic statistic under their belt. KING JOHNS CASTLE is the most high profile to go along with CONTRABAND, FUNDAMENTALIST and TUMBLING DICE. Talking of basic qualities to win a national, IDLE TALK falls over more often than Didier Drogba. For the brave, lay all of these 5 on betfair.
Headgear is not an obvious horse racing topic but horses racing with it are as popular with punters as their human hooded teenage equivalents are on street corners with a bottle of WKD and 10 Marlboro lights. Since 1975, 146 horses with blinkers, cheek pieces or visors have tried to win the national and only 1 has prevailed (Our friend Earth Summit again). Given the amount of loose horses and general carnage in a national, its not surprising a horse needs to be able to see to stand a chance. MCKELVEY was unluckly last year but fell as did POINT BARROW at the first. BAILY BREEZE, BLACK APACHI, CORNISH REBEL and COMPLY OR DIE are all horses who are likely to wear headgear and who may look fetching but are ultimately tipped to run into trouble.
That leaves us with 6 horses. SLIM PICKINGS, SNOWY MORNING, CLOUDY LANE, BEWLEYS BERRY, BACKBEAT & JOAACI. On the face of it CLOUDY LANE is a perfect choice . He has a trainer with national pedigree (Donald Mccain, father trained Amberleigh house and Red Rum), an owner who has won the race before (Trevor Hemmings, Hedgehunter), winning form over the Course (6 of last 7 winners raced at Aintree before) and laid our for the race like most Grand national winners are and has no negatives to speak of. Except one. Unfortunately, he is 6-1 which is no price for a national bet and the value for CLOUDY LANE has long since gone. Anyone who thinks otherwise may want to recall Clan Royal being run out when cruising at Beaches Brook 2 years ago or the saddle slipping on Beau in 2001 when looking odds onto win with 4 runners left. At the other end of spectrum BACKBEAT may be worth a speculative bet at 140-1 on betfair but BEWLEYS BERRY has the same owner trainer combination and has form over the course and is more fancied of the 2. Not bad value at 18-1 on betfair. JOAACI is passed over. Most national winners run with the pace and JOAACI comes from some way back. He may encounter trouble and his trainer (and father before him, Martin Pipe) has a national record which is shocking.
That leaves the Irish trained (Irish horses have won 6 of the last 9 nationals) SLIM PICKINGS and SNOWY MORNING. SLIM PICKINGS finished 3rd last year and is no higher in the handicap for it. As stamina increases with age, he must have a good chance. Slight preference, though, is for SNOWY MORNING. A running on 2nd to the gold cup winning Denman in the Royal Sun Alliance chase last year he has rock solid form with a reasonable weight to show for it. Willy Mullins the trainer has recent national winning form in Hedgehunter and SNOWY MORNING seems excellent value at 29-1 on betfair compared with 12-1 for SLIM PICKINGS.
In the unlikely event of a monsoon or for a bit of each way value, NAUNTON BROOK is the most likely of the stayers to run on into a place.
Prediction
1 Snowy Morning
2. Cloudy Lane
3. Slim Pickings
4. Naunton Brook
With 40 runners to choose from it is not surprising that the Grand National is often regarding as a pin sticking race by most once a year punters. The race, however, has been subject to some strong trends that can eliminate over ¾ of the field on strong statistical grounds and this year is no exception.
One statistic that is the punting equivalent of steaming full steam ahead into an iceberg is backing a French bred horse. The Titanic had yet to be built, the entente cordiale had just been signed and Newcastle United had just won the league when a French bred last won the National 99 years ago. Whilst the competing numbers had been sparse up to 10 years ago, they have supplied 25% of runners since including the favorite (Monkerhostin) and 10 others last year. They all finishing out of the frame. On that grounds we can expect TURKO, MADISON DE BERLAIS, OPERA MUNDI, IRON MAN, BUTLERS CABIN, VODKA BLEU, L’AMI, NO FULL, MON MOME, KELAMI, MILAN DEUX MILLE and NADOVER to stay as ineffectively as the Maginot line. If the Tricole still takes your fancy BUTLERS CABIN has won over 3 miles at Cheltenham festival in 2007 and MON MORE has good form in big handicaps but the former has average form this year and the later has made jumping mistakes in his only start. French horses simply aren’t bred for the distance and will be panting away and dreaming of munching on stilton and brie long before 4m 4f is out. Viva L’Angleterre.
With 28 horses left, we can also remove those at the top end of the Handicap. For the uninitiated, each horse is allocated a weight in the National with the best horse allocated the highest weight to carry (up to 12st) and the worst the least (down to 10st). In theory this should make the race fair. In practice, trainers target specific races masking the horses true rating. This is by running over too short a distance or over hurdles to keep the horse fit but not to endanger its official rating. This means that horses at the top end of the handicap are ‘exposed’ having a rating to reflect their best performance and rarely win big handicap races and the National is no exception. Horses often win from the lower end of the handicap who are carrying less weight than their true ability to date has suggested. The last horse to win carrying more than 11st 5lbs was RED RUM and 75 have tried since. We can wave goodbye to HEDGEHUNTER, HI CLOY, KNOWHERE, MR POINTMENT, OLLIE MAGERN & SIMON as well as any French breds who we have already discounted.
Age is the next factor to consider. Novices or horses younger than 8 struggle with no winner less than 8 years old recorded for 68 years. Only 1 of 25 six or 7 year olds has even completed, let alone won the race, in the intervening period. The National is an old mans game and BOB HALL can be eliminated as a 7 year old. Next to go are out and out stayers. Not since 1998 has a genuine soft ground run all day horse won (Earth Summit) in torrential rain and given the ground will be no worse than Good to Soft we can expect NAUNTON BROOK, PHILSON RUN, D’ARGENT and CHELSEA HARBOUR to find at least one with more speed and too good for them in the home straight. These, though, can still be considered for each way value.
Conversely, horses without winning form over 3m fair badly in the National and should be struck of the list without this basic statistic under their belt. KING JOHNS CASTLE is the most high profile to go along with CONTRABAND, FUNDAMENTALIST and TUMBLING DICE. Talking of basic qualities to win a national, IDLE TALK falls over more often than Didier Drogba. For the brave, lay all of these 5 on betfair.
Headgear is not an obvious horse racing topic but horses racing with it are as popular with punters as their human hooded teenage equivalents are on street corners with a bottle of WKD and 10 Marlboro lights. Since 1975, 146 horses with blinkers, cheek pieces or visors have tried to win the national and only 1 has prevailed (Our friend Earth Summit again). Given the amount of loose horses and general carnage in a national, its not surprising a horse needs to be able to see to stand a chance. MCKELVEY was unluckly last year but fell as did POINT BARROW at the first. BAILY BREEZE, BLACK APACHI, CORNISH REBEL and COMPLY OR DIE are all horses who are likely to wear headgear and who may look fetching but are ultimately tipped to run into trouble.
That leaves us with 6 horses. SLIM PICKINGS, SNOWY MORNING, CLOUDY LANE, BEWLEYS BERRY, BACKBEAT & JOAACI. On the face of it CLOUDY LANE is a perfect choice . He has a trainer with national pedigree (Donald Mccain, father trained Amberleigh house and Red Rum), an owner who has won the race before (Trevor Hemmings, Hedgehunter), winning form over the Course (6 of last 7 winners raced at Aintree before) and laid our for the race like most Grand national winners are and has no negatives to speak of. Except one. Unfortunately, he is 6-1 which is no price for a national bet and the value for CLOUDY LANE has long since gone. Anyone who thinks otherwise may want to recall Clan Royal being run out when cruising at Beaches Brook 2 years ago or the saddle slipping on Beau in 2001 when looking odds onto win with 4 runners left. At the other end of spectrum BACKBEAT may be worth a speculative bet at 140-1 on betfair but BEWLEYS BERRY has the same owner trainer combination and has form over the course and is more fancied of the 2. Not bad value at 18-1 on betfair. JOAACI is passed over. Most national winners run with the pace and JOAACI comes from some way back. He may encounter trouble and his trainer (and father before him, Martin Pipe) has a national record which is shocking.
That leaves the Irish trained (Irish horses have won 6 of the last 9 nationals) SLIM PICKINGS and SNOWY MORNING. SLIM PICKINGS finished 3rd last year and is no higher in the handicap for it. As stamina increases with age, he must have a good chance. Slight preference, though, is for SNOWY MORNING. A running on 2nd to the gold cup winning Denman in the Royal Sun Alliance chase last year he has rock solid form with a reasonable weight to show for it. Willy Mullins the trainer has recent national winning form in Hedgehunter and SNOWY MORNING seems excellent value at 29-1 on betfair compared with 12-1 for SLIM PICKINGS.
In the unlikely event of a monsoon or for a bit of each way value, NAUNTON BROOK is the most likely of the stayers to run on into a place.
Prediction
1 Snowy Morning
2. Cloudy Lane
3. Slim Pickings
4. Naunton Brook
Mendoza
NSC's Most Stalked
Point Barrow
S'hampton Seagull
Well-known member
Sad I know, but I've gone for my namesake (Simon) at £5 to be placed.
Cian
Well-known member
Got Bewleys Berry in the sweepstake in work, just needs to be placed to get something back...
Scotty Mac
New member
- Jul 13, 2003
- 24,405
fundamentalist
king johns castle
king johns castle
Mtoto
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,858
Good stuff Hannibal and wouldn't disagree with much of it, but I do think the stat about weight carried is one that's itching to be broken some time soon. The shape of the race has changed so much in the last five years that it's effectively a limited handicap already, and if it carries on the same way, they will all be carrying 11st or more in 10 years' time.
Also it's very hard - if not impossible - to disguise a horse's talent any more and give it any chance of getting in. Minimum rating this year is Dun Doire - a former Festival winner - on 137, and you can't get a rating like that by running in hurdles or down the field at Taunton all the time.
Agree that Snowy Morning has a solid chance, though, and I think it has Pricewise written all over it so could well be worth getting on now. Also like Comply Or Die (flying in the face of the blinks stat).
Also it's very hard - if not impossible - to disguise a horse's talent any more and give it any chance of getting in. Minimum rating this year is Dun Doire - a former Festival winner - on 137, and you can't get a rating like that by running in hurdles or down the field at Taunton all the time.
Agree that Snowy Morning has a solid chance, though, and I think it has Pricewise written all over it so could well be worth getting on now. Also like Comply Or Die (flying in the face of the blinks stat).
crodonilson
He/Him
I'm having a pony e/w on King Johns Castle and D'Argent.