[News] The Energy crisis

[portslade seagull]

I'm thankful for your posts and for telling the truth about the problems being faced.

The usual suspects aren't though, it's all Brexits fault. Stop ruining there little get together

 

[Deleted member 22389]

The usual suspects aren't though, it's all Brexits fault. Stop ruining there little get together

 

[Gwylan]

There is no threat to supply

this is a perfect storm of excess demand and constrained supply to the EU.

So, there's no threat to supply the problem is the constrained supply?

Well, that's crystal clear

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

So, there's no threat to supply the problem is the constrained supply?

Well, that's crystal clear

Constrained supply to Europe at previous lower prices as we are having to compete on global markets with a massive post Covid increase in demand from Asia. Again, there are storage factors that have made our region particularly susceptible. No threat to supplies as long as we are willing to pay the price. Basically what I am saying is that you will not run out of gas but our economies will have to adjust and it will affect economic growth. And you were correct. I didn’t make myself clear before. What I’m really trying to get at is the price function in changing absolute levels of demand and supply.

 

[Cotton Socks]

All I know is that my bill has just literally doubled. My fix is coming to an end, so 2 days ago I started looking around. £147pm was the cheapest fix. I went back today as I'm now within the no exit charges & the cheapest fix I can get is £173pm. Variable rate is cheaper at the moment but I'm hedging my bet that the price cap will rise again in April. There are no exit fees, so if there are better options after April I'll switch again. Really quite scary how fast the fixes have been pulled. There will be a lot of people who will have to be cold & make choices, the warm home discount for some pensioners is at £140 per year. That has not increased for 9 years. Universal Credit has been cut, the price of food is rising, some (a lot) people in this country are going to be up sh*t creak without a paddle.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I'm thankful for your posts and for telling the truth about the problems being faced.

The usual suspects aren't though, it's all Brexits fault. Stop ruining there little get together

I don't believe anyone has said it's all Brexit's fault. What is being discussed is whether Brexit is a factor in the current Energy crisis. [MENTION=34242]Neville's Breakfast[/MENTION] believes it isn't and quite a few others believe it is, but it seems neither are able to give an objective factual case and it is, therefor two subjective opinions, neither of which has any proof.

I myself, am not clear why the economic battle between Russia and the EU which NB has alluded to is now effecting Britain, a completely independent country.

But if NB's opinion reassures you that, on this particular issue, you haven't both voted against your own interests, then I can see why you would leap in to support it

If I found myself in your positions (which obviously I wouldn't) I would probably do the same

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The usual suspects aren't though, it's all Brexits fault. Stop ruining there little get together

There must be some sort of prize on NSC for continually mentioning Brexit on as many threads as possible no matter how tenous the supposed link [emoji6]

On the plus side its been enjoyable watching [MENTION=11928]vegster[/MENTION] digging an ever deeper hole for himself ..

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

I don't believe anyone has said it's all Brexit's fault. What is being discussed is whether Brexit is a factor in the current Energy crisis. [MENTION=34242]Neville's Breakfast[/MENTION] believes it isn't and quite a few others believe it is, but it seems nether are able to give an objective factual case and it is, therefor two subjective opinions, neither of which has any proof.

I myself, am not clear why the economic battle between Russia and the EU which NB has alluded to is now effecting Britain, a completely independent country.

But if NB's opinion reassures you that, on this particular issue, you haven't both voted against your own interests, then I can see why you would leap in to support it

If I found myself in your positions (which obviously I wouldn't) I would probably do the same

I don’t have any axe to grind on this WZ. I don’t really have an opinion on the Brexit angle because it is inconsequential in the markets I am involved with. Perhaps I should have said earlier in the thread that I don’t see a Brexit angle and nobody has been able to clearly explain one. If you want one then fill your boots but leave me out of it. I don’t want to argue with you.There is no need to draw me into that debate. All I can say is that I can see the factors I have mentioned at play. Of course ‘independent countries’ are affected. We live in a world where global markets affect us all, regardless of constitutional arrangements in or out of the EU. Nordstream 2 is a major factor in all of this as the Russians want to use this new pipeline and the Greens and others in Germany (and countries such as Ukraine) are opposed. It has been bubbling under all year hence the moves in TTF price upon which much gas trade is indexed.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I don’t have any axe to grind on this WZ. I don’t really have an opinion on the Brexit angle because it is inconsequential in the markets I am involved with. Perhaps I should have said earlier in the thread that I don’t see a Brexit angle and nobody has been able to clearly explain one. If you want one then fill your boots but leave me out of it. I don’t want to argue with you.There is no need to draw me into that debate. All I can say is that I can see the factors I have mentioned at play. Of course ‘independent countries’ are affected. We live in a world where global markets affect us all, regardless of constitutional arrangements in or out of the EU. Nordstream 2 is a major factor in all of this as the Russians want to use this new pipeline and the Greens and others in Germany (and countries such as Ukraine) are opposed. It has been bubbling under all year hence the moves in TTF price upon which much gas trade is indexed.

Sorry, I wasn't looking to draw you in, I thought we had agreed quite a few pages ago, that nobody had been able to state an objective case either for or against Brexit being a factor and all we had were subjective opiniions

It was a couple of other posters who I believe, quite wrongly, saw you as some sort of 'Nothing to do with Brexit' standard bearer that I was looking to correct

 

[KZNSeagull]

By the time you lot have decided whether Brexit is to blame or not, prices will have fallen again.

On that subject does anyone know anything from reliable sources, not twitter "pretend to knowitalls", about how long this is likely to last? I am sure that this is of much more importance to many.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

By the time you lot have decided whether Brexit is to blame or not, prices will have fallen again.

On that subject does anyone know anything from reliable sources, not twitter "pretend to knowitalls", about how long this is likely to last? I am sure that this is of much more importance to many.

Could last all winter, particularly if it’s a cold one. I can see supply problems going away if the Russians are allowed full unconditional use of Nordstream 2. I can also see post Covid recovery stalling because of energy prices and demand fading away. However, a cold winter will lead to further spikes because it is too late to replenish storage. Basically you have entered the world of predicting commodity prices but are powerless to do anything about it. Plan for the worst, hope for the best and don’t necessarily believe Government reassurances because they know as much as the rest of us about where prices are going.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Could last all winter, particularly if it’s a cold one. I can see supply problems going away if the Russians are allowed full unconditional use of Nordstream 2. I can also see post Covid recovery stalling because of energy prices and demand fading away. However, a cold winter will lead to further spikes because it is too late to replenish storage. Basically you have entered the world of predicting commodity prices but are powerless to do anything about it. Plan for the worst, hope for the best and don’t necessarily believe Government reassurances because they know as much as the rest of us about where prices are going.

Thank you!

 

[WATFORD zero]

Could last all winter, particularly if it’s a cold one. I can see supply problems going away if the Russians are allowed full unconditional use of Nordstream 2. I can also see post Covid recovery stalling because of energy prices and demand fading away. However, a cold winter will lead to further spikes because it is too late to replenish storage. Basically you have entered the world of predicting commodity prices but are powerless to do anything about it. Plan for the worst, hope for the best and don’t necessarily believe Government reassurances because they know as much as the rest of us about where prices are going.

From the little I understand, a very fair assessment

 

[vegster]

Why are you being so immature ? Anyway, the answer to your question is that it is not our gas or at least a lot of it isn’t. We also import via interconnectors and buy LNG on global markets. There is no threat to supply because markets work in such a way that we pay higher prices in a competitive market which leads to demand destruction. There is some evidence this is happening already with major industrial users cutting back on their consumption of gas. You have to understand that this is a perfect storm of excess demand and constrained supply to the EU. This is deliberate action by the Russians to put pressure on Germany (in particular) to approve the new Nordstream 2 pipeline. They can do this because they know Europe has not replenished storage for reasons you weren’t interested in my explaining. If you would rather just post uninformed bollocks that suit your politics then just don’t bother replying to my posts.

Sorry I have upset you by asking pertinent questions, it's not being immature, although some call it " uninformed bollocks " ! I'm still confused by the fact that the UK is a major Gas producer yet we are paying increasing prices for our own Gas ? You do seem somewhat evasive with the facts as I try to unravel what is going on. I'm not sure I have even mentioned politics other than to say that I was willing to bet that European energy companies might well be subsidising their home markets by the profits they make here on energy sales, remember ? See post #21 ......... and lo and behold !!!!!!!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/23/uk-energy-suppliers-publicly-owned-crisis

 

[beorhthelm]

Sorry I have upset you by asking pertinent questions, it's not being immature, although some call it " uninformed bollocks " ! I'm still confused by the fact that the UK is a major Gas producer yet we are paying increasing prices for our own Gas ? You do seem somewhat evasive with the facts as I try to unravel what is going on. I'm not sure I have even mentioned politics other than to say that I was willing to bet that European energy companies might well be subsidising their home markets by the profits they make here on energy sales, remember ? See post #21 ......... and lo and behold !!!!!!!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/23/uk-energy-suppliers-publicly-owned-crisis

so the reason Germany have the most expensive electricity and gas normally, is so they dont have to pay more in a time like this? sound planning that. bit awkward then that they are having the same problems there https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-households-face-115-rise-gas-bills-2021-09-20/ and thats before we get onto their continued use of coal as backup power.

that article didnt really say what you think it said, keen to prompt public ownership without showing how that made any difference, leaving you to infer its so much better.

 

[Randy McNob]

There must be some sort of prize on NSC for continually mentioning Brexit on as many threads as possible no matter how tenous the supposed link [emoji6]

On the plus side its been enjoyable watching [MENTION=11928]vegster[/MENTION] digging an ever deeper hole for himself ..

Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

your right, why on earth would anyone would link Gas prices to leaving the EU

 

[Cheshire Cat]

your right, why on earth would anyone would link Gas prices to leaving the EU

View attachment 140667

But nobody in their right mind believes a word that idiot says.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Sorry I have upset you by asking pertinent questions, it's not being immature, although some call it " uninformed bollocks " ! I'm still confused by the fact that the UK is a major Gas producer yet we are paying increasing prices for our own Gas ? You do seem somewhat evasive with the facts as I try to unravel what is going on. I'm not sure I have even mentioned politics other than to say that I was willing to bet that European energy companies might well be subsidising their home markets by the profits they make here on energy sales, remember ? See post #21 ......... and lo and behold !!!!!!!


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/23/uk-energy-suppliers-publicly-owned-crisis

Some mistake here surely. You have posted an article about state ownership of utilities with which I agree completely. I think you meant to post one about European companies subsidizing home markets with profits made in the UK ? I don’t know much about that and simply challenged you earlier in the thread to back this up. You still haven’t. Don’t know where you get ‘evasive’ from. Why would I be ? I am just trying to share my experience on a forum. If you aren’t interested just put me on ignore. I am not upset at all but I do think you are rather rude as I have attempted to answer all of your questions politely even though they haven’t really been that ‘pertinent.’ If you are still talking about ‘our’ gas then you just don’t understand markets.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

your right, why on earth would anyone would link Gas prices to leaving the EU

View attachment 140667

That's a car crash of a sentence on a number of levels ... typical Sun reader.

 

[vegster]

so the reason Germany have the most expensive electricity and gas normally, is so they dont have to pay more in a time like this? sound planning that. bit awkward then that they are having the same problems there https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-households-face-115-rise-gas-bills-2021-09-20/ and thats before we get onto their continued use of coal as backup power.

that article didnt really say what you think it said, keen to prompt public ownership without showing how that made any difference, leaving you to infer its so much better.

Oops ! got the wrong NB