[Finance] The cryptocurrency (Bitcoin etc) thread

[Albion Dan]

Think I’ll stick to things I understand....

Implied vol all over the shop and if Musk can move it that much - sorry not for me.


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Musk really didn’t move it that much. It was on an uptrend anyway and stopped on its resistance point exactly as expected. It’s a volatile asset and can swing way more than today. What’s important is whether it’s on a bull or bear trend and knowing which it’s in and when to get in/out. I learnt that the hard way [emoji23].

 

[Albion Dan]

looking back, btc stayed above 200MA for two and half years before 2017 peak. starting this cycle in Apr 2020 gives a bit of a runway yet. 100k is lowballing, some of wilder speculators are shooting for 400k. we'll see july/august is likely the peak regardless of other factors and signals.

I think we don’t see the peak until 2022. What I do know though is when everyone gets mouthy about high numbers on Twitter it usually dumps for a bit soon after. Parabolic rises need to correct so the trend can last.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think we don’t see the peak until 2022. What I do know though is when everyone gets mouthy about high numbers on Twitter it usually dumps for a bit soon after. Parabolic rises need to correct so the trend can last.

certainly better to go sideways for a while to push really high. not always clear if higher estimates are for this cycle or the next. personally im not counting on there being a next cycle, once the bankers get seriously involved they'll see through the valuations and paper thin logic. just hoping this cycle will pay for a reasonably sized house

 

[Albion Dan]

She just tapped 46k. A daily close over 45 and we really could be flying again.

 

[janesmith]

It seems it's rising steady.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

The energy consumption of blockchains is the elephant in the room on it's sustainability. It may well tick a lot of boxes, but consuming as much power as Holland or Switzerland each year is hardly going to win any environmental prizes any time soon.

 

[BrickTamland]

The energy consumption of blockchains is the elephant in the room on it's sustainability. It may well tick a lot of boxes, but consuming as much power as Holland or Switzerland each year is hardly going to win any environmental prizes any time soon.

Yeah, ironic that it’s backed by Tesla in that sense. There are greener alternatives but none have the traction or name of Bitcoin

 

[Doc Lynam]

The energy consumption of blockchains is the elephant in the room on it's sustainability. It may well tick a lot of boxes, but consuming as much power as Holland or Switzerland each year is hardly going to win any environmental prizes any time soon.

You'll find in time that BTC will be one of the big innovators in green energy, as its a race using this energy that's why so profitable. Like in China during wet seasons from hydro energy and Iceland through thermal. Also how much does the regular financial system consume energy wise, not to mention it can't be used geo politically like the all powerful swift network still in use from the 70s or that in can't be rehypothecated how much did the financial crash of 2008 and years after it consume in energy!

With a bit more understanding the energy BTC can save will be immense.

 

[beorhthelm]

...With a bit more understanding the energy BTC can save will be immense.

sorry for the logic pedantry, something cant ever save energy by using more. while it may use some more ecological sources of energy in places, Bitcoin is inefficient by design. its the cost of generating the next hash that secures the network.

 

[Doc Lynam]

Fair play Herr Tubthumper, hats off to you getting in so early!

 

[Doc Lynam]

sorry for the logic pedantry, something cant ever save energy by using more. while it may use some more ecological sources of energy in places, Bitcoin is inefficient by design. its the cost of generating the next hash that secures the network.

No you miss understand what I'm saying, no doubt its my explanation; if you compare the inefficiencies in the current system and its further reaching impact on our society and others, the savings of one system compared to another are in my mind great.

Also as an aside Bitcoin will never lose energy, 1 BTC today will never be 2 tomorrow.

 

[CheeseRolls]

The energy consumption of blockchains is the elephant in the room on it's sustainability. It may well tick a lot of boxes, but consuming as much power as Holland or Switzerland each year is hardly going to win any environmental prizes any time soon.

It is probably worthwhile understanding that crypto mining the process of creating Bitcoin is increasingly processor intensive to ensure scarcity a lot like gold mining.
Blockchain is a irrefutable ledger, typically used to provide proof of ownership.

When you understand the basic difference, it helps to explain why there are so many different cryptocurrencies, the different problems they were created to address and sometimes the relative success.

 

[sydney]

No you miss understand what I'm saying, no doubt its my explanation; if you compare the inefficiencies in the current system and its further reaching impact on our society and others, the savings of one system compared to another are in my mind great.

Also as an aside Bitcoin will never lose energy, 1 BTC today will never be 2 tomorrow.

i am sitting here looking at 3 or 4 good mates who have made 100's of k's on btc in the last year and a half , one of them bought 3 the year before last, he has just paid his house off and bought a new tesla ....the other two are holding on , they are convinced they are going to be millionaires , my shares are doing bugger all .....perplexing to say the least.

 

[Doc Lynam]

i am sitting here looking at 3 or 4 good mates who have made 100's of k's on btc in the last year and a half , one of them bought 3 the year before last, he has just paid his house off and bought a new tesla ....the other two are holding on , they are convinced they are going to be millionaires , my shares are doing bugger all .....perplexing to say the least.

The reasons for its existence are varied and complex, going back but not exclusive to the US and Brits leaving the gold standard US in 71 and cypherpunks planning for a internet that is state resistance through encryption and the subsequent legal battles during the 80's.

Bitcoin was very basically designed as an antidote to both. First a currency that isn't state generated and owned and is safe from being stolen producing a fixed supply (BTC as a currency at present just isn't viable at present, but a store of value is). And secondly that allows for personnel ownership so no banks are needed and all the freedoms that come with that especially if your politics don't jive with the current leader (Cough... Putin) would just be one of todays examples.

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

It is probably worthwhile understanding that crypto mining the process of creating Bitcoin is increasingly processor intensive to ensure scarcity a lot like gold mining.
Blockchain is a irrefutable ledger, typically used to provide proof of ownership.

When you understand the basic difference, it helps to explain why there are so many different cryptocurrencies, the different problems they were created to address and sometimes the relative success.

I thought crypto mining is simply giving up processor power to help process the ledger. For helping process the ledger you are rewarded. It's not more intensive to ensure scarcity, it's more intensive because with each transaction the ledger grows larger. Currently the most Bitcoin can grow to is 21m bitcoins. Something would have to change to go beyond that.

 

[beorhthelm]

I thought crypto mining is simply giving up processor power to help process the ledger. For helping process the ledger you are rewarded. It's not more intensive to ensure scarcity, it's more intensive because with each transaction the ledger grows larger. Currently the most Bitcoin can grow to is 21m bitcoins. Something would have to change to go beyond that.

depends on the model used. the foundation principle is to secure a data block, in which all transactions for a period are stored. that is then carried forward into the next block, the chaining element to the name. in Bitcoin the block is secured through brute force algorithm (proof of work), other cryptos rely on other means agree consensus. scarcity is determined by the config parameters of the code, you can change the number in a hard fork if the network agrees to it. PoW is more intensive because as more join the network (full nodes doing the encryption, not wallet users), it becomes more difficult to solve the brute force algorithm, so needs more computation power.

 

[nicko31]

Didn't realise but it seems like bitcoin is an incredibly dirty business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/is-bitcoin-mining-worth-the-environmental-cost

Not one for the ESG investor

 

[Doc Lynam]

Didn't realise but it seems like bitcoin is an incredibly dirty business.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/is-bitcoin-mining-worth-the-environmental-cost

Not one for the ESG investor

https://www.coindesk.com/what-bloomberg-gets-wrong-about-bitcoins-climate-footprint

 

[Berty23]

There is one crypto that is actually reasonably green. Electroneum. I don’t understand enough about the tech but they try to highlight how green they are. Their focus is bringing financial control to the developing world. They have set up a freelance site where people are paid in Electroneum but the purchaser of the task pays in their own currency. The idea is that people can then use this in the developing world as currency. They can top up smart phone or buy electricity. Some shops starting to use it as legal tender. It is quite interesting to follow.

People don’t understand that smart phones are all over the place but lots of the population don’t have access to a bank account. Hence the focus on the unbanked.

Obviously this is one of shed loads of currencies.

 

[Barnet Seagull]

Interested in this thread. Ive got a bit of eth, dot and some ada. Its all gone a bit bonkers recently so I am considering my next investment carefully. Not planning to cash in but its not so appealing to invest more at current prices. Looking at alternatives but havent researched for a while. Anything worth a look?



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