[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[The Wizard]

^^ Here’s a breakdown about the SA variant - they still think it protects against severe disease anyway but even if it DID become totally able to pass the vaccine without any effect we will have time as it would take many many months for it to become dominant because of how infectious the Kent strain is and they are already developing a modified vaccine for it. I’m sick of reading about this SA variant to be honest, there’s nowhere near enough evidence about it for us to be seriously worried, yes they’ve said it’s likely less effective BUT there is no real data yet for anyone getting seriously ill with in. The rates themselves in SA are interesting because covid has been nowhere near as deadly out there than Europe.

Here’s a good read for anyone, explained better than I could:

 

[DIFFBROOK]

I was a little surprised to listen/read from Prof Sarah Gilbert of Astra Zeneca say that a re worked version of the vaccine that would be much better at neutralizing the South African variant would be ready by the Autumn. Thats almost as long as developing the original took place. Maybe, she is using the regulatory approach of the original to work out the timeline? I suspect she would have to give that timeline - without guidance from MHRA

We are in a national emergency - so surely we dont need to go through phase 1-3 trials again? Maybe, we can get a re worked version ready in say 3 months when peoples second jabs are needed. Just a phase 1 trial of say a few hundred individuals to make sure it works and no trial pts get very ill. I think we can contain the SA variant for that length of time.

So, over to Oxford AZ, the MHRA and Ministers

 

[DIFFBROOK]

You are absolutely spot on with this type of media reporting. Im totally fine with balance reporting of the facts. But the media are obsessed about bringing bad news - with click bait headlines that in many cases dont mirror the story.

We are talking about peoples mental health . Cooped up, not being able to see family/friends. To continually drip people bad news, most of which isnt anywhere near as bleak, just to instill panic is irresponsible.

This thread in particular is a godsend.

Yes that’s the way I take it. And only 147 recorded cases of the South African variant recorded in this country so far and confidence the vaccine will be tweaked to combat it in a matter of months anyway. Which makes the doomsday style BBC headline reporting of this yesterday and today totally OTT and irresponsible.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

^^ Here’s a breakdown about the SA variant - they still think it protects against severe disease anyway but even if it DID become totally able to pass the vaccine without any effect we will have time as it would take many many months for it to become dominant because of how infectious the Kent strain is and they are already developing a modified vaccine for it. I’m sick of reading about this SA variant to be honest, there’s nowhere near enough evidence about it for us to be seriously worried, yes they’ve said it’s likely less effective BUT there is no real data yet for anyone getting seriously ill with in. The rates themselves in SA are interesting because covid has been nowhere near as deadly out there than Europe.

Here’s a good read for anyone, explained better than I could:View attachment 133563

That's a good précis regarding the variants. [emoji106]

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You are absolutely spot on with this type of media reporting. Im totally fine with balance reporting of the facts. But the media are obsessed about bringing bad news - with click bait headlines that in many cases dont mirror the story.

We are talking about peoples mental health . Cooped up, not being able to see family/friends. To continually drip people bad news, most of which isnt anywhere near as bleak, just to instill panic is irresponsible.

This thread in particular is a godsend.

If you look at the overseas news reporting on the vaccine/SA they are nowhere near as negative about it.

 

[beorhthelm]

I was a little surprised to listen/read from Prof Sarah Gilbert of Astra Zeneca say that a re worked version of the vaccine that would be much better at neutralizing the South African variant would be ready by the Autumn. Thats almost as long as developing the original took place. Maybe, she is using the regulatory approach of the original to work out the timeline? I suspect she would have to give that timeline - without guidance from MHRA

We are in a national emergency - so surely we dont need to go through phase 1-3 trials again? Maybe, we can get a re worked version ready in say 3 months when peoples second jabs are needed. Just a phase 1 trial of say a few hundred individuals to make sure it works and no trial pts get very ill. I think we can contain the SA variant for that length of time.

So, over to Oxford AZ, the MHRA and Ministers

there might be some Scotty estimation in there, its still quick. phase I and II are only a few hundred people, with wider phase III to show efficacy. they can fast track it because it amounts to recoding rather than a new product, still needs to be checked its safe (no significant side effects) and effective.

 

[loz]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/covid-doom-mongers-hope-pandemic-end

 

[Napper]

You are absolutely spot on with this type of media reporting. Im totally fine with balance reporting of the facts. But the media are obsessed about bringing bad news - with click bait headlines that in many cases dont mirror the story.

We are talking about peoples mental health . Cooped up, not being able to see family/friends. To continually drip people bad news, most of which isnt anywhere near as bleak, just to instill panic is irresponsible.

This thread in particular is a godsend.

its frustrating and damaging as people read the headlines and then spread the bad news and the cycle continues.

The numbers are coming down drastically and consistently now . At some point soon the numbers will just crap all over their doom.

Problem is the cycle of doom has implications for restrictions but I hope common sense will be applied and will be numbers that drive the decisions , not scaremongering.

Media never had it so good so guess they are locked into the doom spreading.

This thread adds some much needed balance .

 

[nickbrighton]

One of the main reasons this thread is needed is to counter the overly pessimistic reporting by all the mainstream media in the UK. Its been nothing short of a national scandal how they have gone out of their way to confuse people and undermine the Government since day one.

By deliberately looking for contradictions in the lockdown regulations and highlighting some of the more highly unlikely scenarios (completely unavoidable when you are issuing regulations for best part of 70 000 000 people , by their accusationary interrogations of not only ministers but the science guys , by pouncing on every mistep or mistake as though it were a deliberate attempt to deceive us all they have created the very environment where people rebel against mask, social distancing etc. Im sure that the press are responsible for a huge number of needless deaths and serious illness.

Had they behaved responsibly, reporting the good AND the bad. Backing the governments attempts to contain and deal with the virus I honestly think we wouldnt be in quite the situation we are.

This thread has been a beacon of light for a lot of us and continues to be a mine of information and hope

 

[A1X]

I was a little surprised to listen/read from Prof Sarah Gilbert of Astra Zeneca say that a re worked version of the vaccine that would be much better at neutralizing the South African variant would be ready by the Autumn. Thats almost as long as developing the original took place.

Presumably because right now they're also engaged with manufacturing the checking the current variant of the vaccine and getting it out there? It's always harder to fix something that's already "live" than something which is not yet, any software developer will tell you that.

 

[Mellotron]

I think autumn also makes sense in terms of the next big vaccination drive, as this one should have ended by then.

You'd hope getting all over 50s (and anyone else who wants one) a one-dose booster shot around September-October - a shot that combats new variants - will mean we can have a far more "normal" Christmas than this one.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I think autumn also makes sense in terms of the next big vaccination drive, as this one should have ended by then.

You'd hope getting all over 50s (and anyone else who wants one) a one-dose booster shot around September-October - a shot that combats new variants - will mean we can have a far more "normal" Christmas than this one.

I agree, i think that this will be a "if you want it" type of thing like the flu

One of the main reasons this thread is needed is to counter the overly pessimistic reporting by all the mainstream media in the UK. Its been nothing short of a national scandal how they have gone out of their way to confuse people and undermine the Government since day one.

By deliberately looking for contradictions in the lockdown regulations and highlighting some of the more highly unlikely scenarios (completely unavoidable when you are issuing regulations for best part of 70 000 000 people , by their accusationary interrogations of not only ministers but the science guys , by pouncing on every mistep or mistake as though it were a deliberate attempt to deceive us all they have created the very environment where people rebel against mask, social distancing etc. Im sure that the press are responsible for a huge number of needless deaths and serious illness.

Had they behaved responsibly, reporting the good AND the bad. Backing the governments attempts to contain and deal with the virus I honestly think we wouldnt be in quite the situation we are.

This thread has been a beacon of light for a lot of us and continues to be a mine of information and hope

Sage should have been banned from talking to the media directly, underminding the Gov from the off - I say that as someone who dislikes the clowns in charge.

 

[Mellotron]

[TWEET]1358765369452863489[/TWEET]

 

[sparkie]

[TWEET]1358765369452863489[/TWEET]

Nice !

 

[Solid at the back]

[TWEET]1358795415475388427[/TWEET]
[TWEET]1358797132845752324[/TWEET]

 

[A1X]

Must confess I've been thinking that "early May" date has been a bit of a worst case scenario (always, always claim your project is getting delivered later than you secretly think it will be just in case), would seem that's pretty much confirmation (TND is one of their "pet" journos). Be interesting to see what they're planning, schools feels like what they'd want to do but also arguably the biggest risk for a sudden big upturn.

 

[highflyer]

To me, the data and analysis that drives this decision and the fact that the tactic has changed is essentially very good news, given the situation we are now in. Time is of the essence and we need to get that vaccine into as many arms as possible as quickly as possible.
If a single jab gives anywhere close to that level of protection and (as seems to be the case) the limiting factor will soon be the number of doses available rather than the capacity to give the jabs, then it's far better that every single dose for the next two months goes into a fresh arm.

Personally, I wonder if they should not have at least kept with the second jab appointments that had already been made, to avoid the confusion and inevitable complaints, and switched to the longer time frame for all first jabs onwards, but that's not a major issue in the larger scheme of things.

Obviously there are very difficult times ahead in the next few months, but my thinking on numbers is that there are three key moments in time we now need to be looking for:

Assuming we have done close to a million jabs already and will get up to 2 million/week fairly quickly now.

1. Around 3-4 million jabs done + two weeks. This should happen around late January and should mean that the majority of over 80's + highly vulnerable people + a substantial % of front line health and care staff have some level of protection and we'll be getting the first discernable benefits in terms of hospitalization and serious illness.

2. Around 10-12 million jabs done + two weeks. Probably mid-late February. This is when over 70's + most health workers, care workers, teachers etc should be largely protected. At this stage we should see a very real difference in infection rates and serious illness and should be the point at which we can begin to (permanently) lift restrictions.

3. 25-30 million jabs done. By end March/early April. This is when we have effective levels of community protection and can start getting back to near 'normal' in terms of how we can live our lives.

Interested to know how others see it?

Quoting myself from start of January. This was always a 'best case' scenario - but still seems on track so far

 

[blue-shifted]

Quoting myself from start of January. This was always a 'best case' scenario - but still seems on track so far

A little ahead of schedule actually

 

[The Wizard]

Just 14k new infections today. All indicators continue down at the same rate, we are so close to beating this thing.

 

[dazzer6666]

Rolling 7-day changes :

-infections DOWN 25.4%
-deaths DOWN 22.4%
-admissions to hospital DOWN 21.8%

Quite a nice symmetry to the numbers now the time lag has been caught up, and all dropping at a similar rate.

Vaccinations down a little - no doubt in part due to the weather - but almost 12.3m first jabs administered.