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[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Hopefully that means all the priority levels ( over 50s ) will have had 1 jab way before the target end of April.
Dick Swiveller
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 9,524
Did the online calculator thing based on the current rate and I am first two weeks in May so it will need a further increase in rates.
The calculator is tosh and has been from the start.
Dick Swiveller
Well-known member
- Sep 9, 2011
- 9,524
Obviously not accurate but it is simple maths using the figures given. A fair indicator on how things will proceed if the current weekly rate continues. And given I am bottom of the 9 groups, it suggests we aren't far off schedule.
Rates are increasing all the time - 39 new sites have opened this week along with 62 pharmacy led sites. The calculator is one of dozens of similar gizmos that particular group have developed - they're not medical in any way, don't appear they have any inside info, they don't update it as often as they could and they don't take account of planned developments (a few weeks ago if you put your numbers in you'd have got a date in 2022). On the good news theme, anyone putting in their data will almost certainly get a date that is later than their actual job is going to be
Weststander
Well-known member
54m adults in the UK, 10.5m have had their first dose already, leaving 43.5m to go. At 469k a day, everyone 18 or over would’ve been vaccinated by the beginning of May. Sooner than that, as anti-vaxers and pandemic deniers refuse.
Greeko
Active member
Don’t think that will be possible in March/April there will be millions of people getting their 2nd jabs so a lot less will get their first
Think we might see any new capacity used for the second jab which means keeping first jab rate high.
Weststander
Well-known member
12 weeks from the 10m’s of first jabs from mid-Jan onwards would be mid-April. By then, possibly only 18 to 30 year olds will be left.
It also depends on the number of anti-vaxers. At the extreme end, 55% of the French population (for example) claim that they’ll refuse.
If that ends up a modest 10% of Brits, that knocks 5.4m off of the list.
55%? That's a mad figure, it really is. Personally, I've always believed that the closer a vaccine comes to being available for a given individual, the less likely they are to to refuse it. It's one thing to believe each vaccine has been personally microchipped by Bill Gates himself when such a thing is only at a theoretical or trial stage, but another to try and maintain such a proposterous mindset once it becomes immediately available to them personally (having been safely administered to millions around the world previously).
Once people realise that the only way, quite literally the only way out of this sorry affair is for the public to take up vacinnes en masse I am certain the collective mindset will change for the better. Countries like Israel who will, all being well, get their first taste of relative normality in the weeks ahead will serve as a case study to be followed by the rest of the world.
You want full stadiums, gigs, festivals? You want to go on holiday? Down the pub? Christ, do just want to get out of your back bedroom? Get that fúcking needle in yer arm, sunshine...
Spot on. Couldn't agree more.
A good read from the Telegraph:
The 'R' rate is at its lowest point since April, according to new modelling which suggests coronavirus vaccines are beginning to have an effect.
Scientists at University College (UCL) London believe the rate as of Tuesday was 0.65 to 0.86, considerably better than the official Government estimate of 0.7 to 1.1 published last Friday.
They use a more complex and nuanced approach to estimate the current real-world rate of infection rather than looking back roughly two weeks, as Sage does.
The UCL team said their modelling showed that the third national lockdown was the most important factor in explaining the drop in cases from the early January peak.
However, they added that the figures cannot be fully explained without taking into account the growing impact of Covid vaccines, which they believe have an efficacy of at least 56.5 per cent.
Professor Karl Friston, the scientific director of the Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging at UCL, who led the research, said: "The bottom line is that vaccination appears to be having a tangible effect on confirmed new cases and daily death rates recorded over the past few weeks.
"If the vaccination programme continues to unfold at its current pace – and lockdown is eased gradually as a function of declining prevalence – we might attain herd immunity by as early as July.
"This encouraging – perhaps optimistic – forecast accommodates fluctuations in viral transmissibility. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about transmission risk that should nuance any interpretation of these predictions.
"These long-term predictions reflect a material response to the third lockdown that is clearly evident in declining incidence, hospital admissions and daily death rates. At present, the reproduction ratio is estimated to be the lowest it has been since late April but is likely to rise gently again as restrictions are eased over the forthcoming months."
The 'R' rate is at its lowest point since April, according to new modelling which suggests coronavirus vaccines are beginning to have an effect.
Scientists at University College (UCL) London believe the rate as of Tuesday was 0.65 to 0.86, considerably better than the official Government estimate of 0.7 to 1.1 published last Friday.
They use a more complex and nuanced approach to estimate the current real-world rate of infection rather than looking back roughly two weeks, as Sage does.
The UCL team said their modelling showed that the third national lockdown was the most important factor in explaining the drop in cases from the early January peak.
However, they added that the figures cannot be fully explained without taking into account the growing impact of Covid vaccines, which they believe have an efficacy of at least 56.5 per cent.
Professor Karl Friston, the scientific director of the Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging at UCL, who led the research, said: "The bottom line is that vaccination appears to be having a tangible effect on confirmed new cases and daily death rates recorded over the past few weeks.
"If the vaccination programme continues to unfold at its current pace – and lockdown is eased gradually as a function of declining prevalence – we might attain herd immunity by as early as July.
"This encouraging – perhaps optimistic – forecast accommodates fluctuations in viral transmissibility. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about transmission risk that should nuance any interpretation of these predictions.
"These long-term predictions reflect a material response to the third lockdown that is clearly evident in declining incidence, hospital admissions and daily death rates. At present, the reproduction ratio is estimated to be the lowest it has been since late April but is likely to rise gently again as restrictions are eased over the forthcoming months."
Marshy
Well-known member
Woop Woop under 100, numbers continue to fall nicely. Still a long way to go.
As of 8am today BSUH have 98 patients positive with Covid.
As of 8am today BSUH have 98 patients positive with Covid.
RossyG
Well-known member
- Dec 20, 2014
- 2,630
nwgull
Well-known member
And football. And cinema. And theatre and gigs.
And strip bars.
RossyG
Well-known member
- Dec 20, 2014
- 2,630
And the Revenge club.