[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[dazzer6666]

35.57m vaccinations worldwide. This is really starting to ramp up now.

We’re already at a rate of c2m a week first-dose based on yesterday’s numbers (279k). The 3.5m a week being bandied about doesn’t sound unreasonable at all now as more centres open etc. Fantastic stuff - that rate gets the whole adult population done by end April/early May.

 

[Madafwo]

We’re already at a rate of c2m a week first-dose based on yesterday’s numbers (279k). The 3.5m a week being bandied about doesn’t sound unreasonable at all now as more centres open etc. Fantastic stuff - that rate gets the whole adult population done by end April/early May.

The way I see it is if we do have capacity for 3.5m jabs a week that is still 1.75m a week receiving their first dose and another 1.75m getting their second jab once that time comes around for people. It's too early and I haven't had a cup of tea this morning so I can't do the maths to work out when that equates to the entire adult population but even I can see that's a fantastic scenario to be in.

 

[dazzer6666]

The way I see it is if we do have capacity for 3.5m jabs a week that is still 1.75m a week receiving their first dose and another 1.75m getting their second jab once that time comes around for people. It's too early and I haven't had a cup of tea this morning so I can't do the maths to work out when that equates to the entire adult population but even I can see that's a fantastic scenario to be in.

I think we’ll crack through as many first doses as we can first (say over the next 8 weeks or so), then start to administer more of the second doses to stay within the 12 week timeframe. On that basis we can get well over 30m first-dosed by say the end of March (even at yesterday’s rate it would be over 20m) then ramp up the second doses as a % of the overall capacity.

This alone would very drastically reduce the pressure on hospitals (which is the key driver behind how the programme is being managed) as the 30m+ would include almost everyone who might get seriously ill from the disease.

 

[A1X]

Presumably second doses must be easier to administer as there would be less need for the admin around it, which would speed the process up?

 

[dazzer6666]

Presumably second doses must be easier to administer as there would be less need for the admin around it, which would speed the process up?

Good point......I don’t know, but as well as the admin being simpler (no need for most of the health questions, more likely ‘has anything changed since your first dose’ instead ?), the need for the 15 min wait after might not be necessary either as if you didn’t have an allergic reaction to the first dose I imagine it’s even less likely you’d have one on the second.

 

[atomised]

I think we’ll crack through as many first doses as we can first (say over the next 8 weeks or so), then start to administer more of the second doses to stay within the 12 week timeframe. On that basis we can get well over 30m first-dosed by say the end of March (even at yesterday’s rate it would be over 20m) then ramp up the second doses as a % of the overall capacity.

This alone would very drastically reduce the pressure on hospitals (which is the key driver behind how the programme is being managed) as the 30m+ would include almost everyone who might get seriously ill from the disease.

The metro ran with government hoping to get the 30 million over 50s done by end of march

 

[Mellotron]

We’re already at a rate of c2m a week first-dose based on yesterday’s numbers (279k). The 3.5m a week being bandied about doesn’t sound unreasonable at all now as more centres open etc. Fantastic stuff - that rate gets the whole adult population done by end April/early May.

I wonder if that's how they manage to keep everyone going with the restrictions. If we can get to end of Feb and hosps and deaths are clearly moving in a positive direction, perhaps start to allow some minimal relaxations - say, non-essential shops reopened, rule of 6 outside etc - on the basis that we then make another concerted push to get everyone who wants it vaccinated by end April/early May, and a full reopening from then?

 

[Mellotron]

The metro ran with government hoping to get the 30 million over 50s done by end of march

That would be a genuinely stunning achievement, and if they hit circa 13-15m by mid Feb, it looks doable.

 

[dazzer6666]

The metro ran with government hoping to get the 30 million over 50s done by end of march

It just makes sense in terms of protecting the NHS first and foremost...........I can’t find the precise stat atm but JVT said something along the lines of vaccinating the mist vulnerable 20% of the population covers 90% of potential hospitalisations, so if we take that 20% up to 40% (30m as indicated) we’re going to almost stop hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[John Byrnes Mullet]

Just recovered, 10 days of feeling like shine.

 

[dazzer6666]

I wonder if that's how they manage to keep everyone going with the restrictions. If we can get to end of Feb and hosps and deaths are clearly moving in a positive direction, perhaps start to allow some minimal relaxations - say, non-essential shops reopened, rule of 6 outside etc - on the basis that we then make another concerted push to get everyone who wants it vaccinated by end April/early May, and a full reopening from then?

Pretty much that I reckon - we’ll drop back through the tiers as numbers (hospitalisations primarily) allow. Sometime in March would be my guess for this to start to happen. The end is tantalisingly in sight now.

 

[atomised]

Just recovered, 10 days of feeling like shine.

Glad to hear it

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

It just makes sense in terms of protecting the NHS first and foremost...........I can’t find the precise stat atm but JVT said something along the lines of vaccinating the mist vulnerable 20% of the population covers 90% of potential hospitalisations, so if we take that 20% up to 40% (30m as indicated) we’re going to almost stop hospitalisations and deaths.

The graph on this post, from earlier in this thread, shows the deaths prevented vs population vaccinated. The first 4 priority groups is a little under 20% of the population but should prevent nearly 90% of the deaths.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...-News-thread&p=9670099&viewfull=1#post9670099

 

[Mellotron]

The graph on this post, from earlier in this thread, shows the deaths prevented vs population vaccinated. The first 4 priority groups is a little under 20% of the population but should prevent nearly 90% of the deaths.

https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/show...-News-thread&p=9670099&viewfull=1#post9670099

Would suggest we've already locked in prevention of about 40% future possible deaths.

 

[Insel affe]

Father in law in Michigan has just refused the vaccine....

The good news is...

He is not married only has two daughters, one grandchild (ours) owns his own lakeside property, a Harley, two boats, a pick up truck, and the best bit three guns.

 

[Napper]

The metro ran with government hoping to get the 30 million over 50s done by end of march

and would pretty much mean job done really. Eveyone hopefully can then start living again

 

[Mellotron]

[TWEET]1349844371911434242[/TWEET]

 

[dazzer6666]

[TWEET]1349844371911434242[/TWEET]

If we were where the vacc programme is currently on our ‘staying up tracker’ we’d be comfortably in a CL place [emoji23][emoji23]

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Posted by [MENTION=17301]mwrpoole[/MENTION] on another thread this morning, thought it was worth reposting here

 

[MJsGhost]

I've got to say, I've been feeling a bit more down about covid in the last couple of days than usual - I'm generally positive so have not been too prone to bouts of unmitigated worry/despair. However, a read through the last few pages has definitely given me a lift.

Thanks to all the contributors to this thread - keep up the great work!