[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[The Wizard]

Today is the first day under 100 deaths have been in the last 5 days NHS England numbers since the beginning of March, when seeing the daily number released people must remember the daily death toll isn’t always representative.

For example today, 41% of the deaths NHS England registered are from over a week ago so backdated deaths make the total look artificially high when it’s actually the lowest midweek reported NHS England hospital deaths since the beginning of March.

 

[Rugrat]

Today is the first day under 100 deaths have been in the last 5 days NHS England numbers since the beginning of March, when seeing the daily number released people must remember the daily death toll isn’t always representative.

For example today, 41% of the deaths NHS England registered are from over a week ago so backdated deaths make the total look artificially high when it’s actually the lowest midweek reported NHS England hospital deaths since the beginning of March.

I'm losing the plot ... on worldometer the deaths are increasing, albeit slowly.

If NHS are saying 41% of deaths go back as far as a week then by the same token don't we need to wait a week to see what today's deaths have been?

 

[southstandandy]

Only 1 Premier League player testing positive in latest round of tests. Now that players are back in contact training that should be far easier for the club concerned to Track and Trace those he's been training with which is a good thing.

 

[Mellotron]

Today is the first day under 100 deaths have been in the last 5 days NHS England numbers since the beginning of March, when seeing the daily number released people must remember the daily death toll isn’t always representative.

For example today, 41% of the deaths NHS England registered are from over a week ago so backdated deaths make the total look artificially high when it’s actually the lowest midweek reported NHS England hospital deaths since the beginning of March.

Yup, some people don’t seem to understand how to read data at all.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

I'm losing the plot ... on worldometer the deaths are increasing, albeit slowly.

If NHS are saying 41% of deaths go back as far as a week then by the same token don't we need to wait a week to see what today's deaths have been?

With the delay in announcing some deaths there is little value in comparing the number announced yesterday and the number announced today. The best way to look at the data on worldometer is to compare on a week by week basis (ie compare the data for each Wednesday). This shows that last Wednesday there were 434 deaths and 2013 cases compared to today 359 deaths and 1871 new cases. A drop of 17% for deaths and a drop of 7% in cases. Middle of the week normally sees higher numbers as the deaths that were not reported over the weekend or bank holidays are added, so it's not a perfect science but still the best way of looking at the data on there.

 

[dazzer6666]

Only 1 Premier League player testing positive in latest round of tests. Now that players are back in contact training that should be far easier for the club concerned to Track and Trace those he's been training with which is a good thing.

Just one at Spurs according to reports - doesn't specify it's a 'player' though.........

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yup, some people don’t seem to understand how to read data at all.

It’s the mindset the nation has been put in - just look at the negative

 

[The Wizard]

I'm losing the plot ... on worldometer the deaths are increasing, albeit slowly.

If NHS are saying 41% of deaths go back as far as a week then by the same token don't we need to wait a week to see what today's deaths have been?

It’s best to look at deaths by day registered charts rather than the actual number released every day to be honest

This chart from twitter is a good example, last few days are subject to change but you can see the trend is broadly downwards, with the natural less dramatic falling increments towards the end, the curve out is much slower than the curve up and we must realise this, it’s been the same all around the world.



I can’t comment on care home deaths as we don’t have a breakdown of when they are released unfortunately and Tuesday/Wednesday numbers unfortunately always include a lot of care home/community deaths.

To put the numbers in context

Two Wednesdays ago there were 166 deaths with 21 dates
Last Wednesday there were 183 deaths including 19 dates
This Wednesday there were 179 deaths with 52 dates (back to March 24)

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1268208783471321088[/tweet]

One for you lot

 

[Weststander]

It’s best to look at deaths by day registered charts rather than the actual number released every day to be honest

This chart from twitter is a good example, last few days are subject to change but you can see the trend is broadly downwards, with the natural less dramatic falling increments towards the end, the curve out is much slower than the curve up and we must realise this, it’s been the same all around the world.

View attachment 124440

I can’t comment on care home deaths as we don’t have a breakdown of when they are released unfortunately and Tuesday/Wednesday numbers unfortunately always include a lot of care home/community deaths.

To put the numbers in context

Two Wednesdays ago there were 166 deaths with 21 dates
Last Wednesday there were 183 deaths including 19 dates
This Wednesday there were 179 deaths with 52 dates (back to March 24)

Thank you. Yesterday’s 324 and today’s reported 359 new deaths, made it seem to me initially “Christ, we’re not getting anywhere FFS”. But these figures include folk who sadly passed away a week or two ago, plus inevitably midweek stats include a catchup for artificially low weekend figures.

What I’d be interested to know if any NSC’ers are au fait with Spain’s epidemic - why are they now revealing daily figures of zero and one deaths, when just a few weeks ago they were piling coffins high and care home staff were doing runners leaving old folk to starve to death (their police are investigating dozens of care homes).

Are they the first European nation to beat covid19? How have they achieved that, whereas the UK, France and Italy have stubbornly falling slowly new daily death figures? What can we learn from the uniquely successful Spanish turnaround?

 

[The Wizard]

I’m not sure about Spain, I’ve been searching for an answer I did read they’ve changed the way they report deaths but whether or not that’s true I’m not sure, this is the good news thread but it seems unlikely to me they went from circa 50 deaths per day a week ago to none now. Hopefully someone will know for sure and it is legit.

We’ve had 794 deaths announced so far this week, last week Monday>Friday was 1477 which itself was down around 20% on the previous week, hopefully tomorrow and Friday will continue the overall trend of around 20% per week.

 

[Weststander]

I’m not sure about Spain, I’ve been searching for an answer I did read they’ve changed the way they report deaths but whether or not that’s true I’m not sure, this is the good news thread but it seems unlikely to me they went from circa 50 deaths per day a week ago to none now. Hopefully someone will know for sure and it is legit.

We’ve had 794 deaths announced so far this week, last week Monday>Friday was 1477 which itself was down around 20% on the previous week, hopefully tomorrow and Friday will continue the overall trend of around 20% per week.

It wasn’t hearsay, they did officially alter their release of death stats criteria, 10 days ago, to solely confirmed covid deaths.

In any case, daily mortality figures of nil or one, is great news. I’d be interesting to know how they got there, as a blueprint.

 

[dazzer6666]

[tweet]1268208783471321088[/tweet]

One for you lot

Def the best chart for people to understand the trajectory- which is significantly, and sustained, in the right direction. Thanks.

 

[Postman Pat]

The other value to take note of is hospital admissions week on week, if this falls fatalities should fall accordingly.

431 vs 472 last week.

 

[Bozza]

The Oxford vaccine to be trialled somewhere where it has a better chance of coming into contact with the infection...

Two thousand Brazilians will participate in June tests of a vaccine against Covid-19 developed by Oxford University in partnership with AstraZeneca pharmaceutical, the Federal University of Sao Paulo (Unifesp) said in a statement.

On Tuesday, the Brazilian Ministry of Health approved the beginning of the study that will vaccinate 1,000 patients in São Paulo and 1,000 more in Rio de Janeiro.

The country is the first site of these vaccination tests outside the United Kingdom.

The study will happen as Brazil is registering an increase in the number of cases and deaths. Tuesday's reported death toll of 1,262 was a record for a 24-hour period.

Brazil's biggest cities have started to relax the social isolation rules imposed since mid-March.

“The most important thing is to carry out this stage of the study now when the epidemiological curve is still rising and the results may be more assertive", the lead investigator of the study in Brazil and researcher at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), Lily Yin Weckx, said.

Other countries will also participate in the study and the official registration of the vaccine is expected to be made later this year in the United Kingdom, Unifesp said in its statement.

Brazil is now the country with the second-highest number of cases after the United States, and the rate of infections continues to rise.​

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.ft.com/content/86c668eb-4a9a-3b77-9905-11954afa3918

Second day in a row USA deaths down

 

[The Wizard]

If anyone is interested you can get a full breakdown of daily testing on here.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public


I also found this really interesting chart that shows if you weight the positive tests per test done

 

[LamieRobertson]

View attachment 124445

If anyone is interested you can get a full breakdown of daily testing on here.


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public


I also found this really interesting chart that shows if you weight the positive tests per test done

View attachment 124446

Is there any chart or info that deciphers positive tests from people showing symptoms

 

[Norman Potting]

So far, touch wood, Mrs. P's return to the classroom has gone better than expected. She is teaching year 6, not her usual year, and they are excited to be back with their friends whom they have missed.

Parents have been supportive and a major source of pupil excitement is that, due to reduced numbers, they have got their own glue sticks and don't have to share!

Hope this is the experience of any teachers, or partners of teachers, on here.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

So far, touch wood, Mrs. P's return to the classroom has gone better than expected. She is teaching year 6, not her usual year, and they are excited to be back with their friends whom they have missed.

Parents have been supportive and a major source of pupil excitement is that, due to reduced numbers, they have got their own glue sticks and don't have to share!

Hope this is the experience of any teachers, or partners of teachers, on here.

Glad to hear it. Our school is currently still only admitting key worker children until next week when year 1 are in. I don't expect to work with them but may return to offer support as I am a specialist computing teacher and they are planning to use Chromebooks. I am impressed by the work the school has done in regard to pupil and staff safety although the smaller children clearly struggle with distancing.