[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[highflyer]

Latest tweet from The Prof

“Really encouraging to read Dr María Neira, the WHO Director for Public Health, say their models are showing a second wave being increasingly ruled out.

Caution required, but she thinks that the virus will have a hard time surviving.

The most optimistic the WHO have been!“

Do you have link to that WHO statement?

WHO are - quite correctly and understandably - cautious about anything they say. They don't do speculation, so this would be meaningful.

 

[The Wizard]

Do you have link to that WHO statement?

WHO are - quite correctly and understandably - cautious about anything they say. They don't do speculation, so this would be meaningful.

Link is in spanish so I google translated it.

https://t.co/kB6aFu7C1o?amp=1

Over time, a major outbreak of coronavirus becomes a remote possibility. This is stated on Monday in statements to RAC-1 by the director of Public Health of the World Health Organization (WHO), María Neira.

"There are many models that advance with a high probability. They speak from a punctual regrowth to a major wave, but this last possibility is increasingly being ruled out. We are much better prepared in all areas," says the Spanish.

Although seroprevalence studies undertaken in different countries, including Spain, have shown that the levels of contagion have not been sufficient to create group immunity that reduces the transmission capacity of the virus in a hypothetical second wave, Neira states that "we have lowered so much the transmission rate that the virus will have a hard time surviving. " "We must be very careful to say whether this is the end of the wave, but the data at least shows us that transmission and the explosion of the first weeks have been avoided," he adds.


Caution

Does this have something to do with the heat? Although it has been said that high temperatures limit the propagation capacity of the pathogen, Neira does not see a decisive factor there, at least with what is known so far: "There are certain doubts about the relationship of the virus with climatology (... ) It is making the geographical journey that is expected of a virus that wants to survive. "

Despite everything, the doctor warns that it is still essential to maintain "great caution" in the de-escalation, a "critical" phase. Otherwise, the good omens of the WHO run the risk of being reversed. "The immunity figures are very low, you have to be very vigilant," he says. Lastly, ask the population not to be paranoid and learn "to live with infectious diseases". Regarding Spain, he believes that lack of confinement will be "a day-to-day battle" and that its results will not be known in epidemiological terms for "two or three weeks".

 

[Mr Banana]

Do you have link to that WHO statement?

WHO are - quite correctly and understandably - cautious about anything they say. They don't do speculation, so this would be meaningful.

https://www.web24.news/u/2020/05/wh...covid-19-will-have-a-hard-time-surviving.html

Spot the coulds. They're also being quoted in plenty of articles saying pretty much the exact opposite today. Nobody can really know, they were confident there wouldn't be human to human transmissions yada yada

 

[Poojah]

Do you have link to that WHO statement?

WHO are - quite correctly and understandably - cautious about anything they say. They don't do speculation, so this would be meaningful.

The article referred to is in Spanish, but here’s a Google Translate version of it:

WHO now sees major outbreak of virus less feasible

Over time, a major outbreak of coronavirus becomes a remote possibility. This is stated on Monday in statements to RAC-1 by the director of Public Health of the World Health Organization (WHO), María Neira.

"There are many models that advance with a high probability. They speak from a punctual regrowth to a major wave, but this last possibility is increasingly being ruled out. We are much better prepared in all areas," says the Spanish.

Although seroprevalence studies undertaken in different countries, including Spain , have shown that the levels of contagion have not been sufficient to create group immunity that reduces the transmission capacity of the virus in a hypothetical second wave, Neira states that "we have lowered so much the transmission rate that the virus will have a hard time surviving. " "We must be very careful to say whether this is the end of the wave, but the data at least shows us that transmission and the explosion of the first weeks have been avoided," he adds.

Caution

Does this have something to do with the heat? Although it has been said that high temperatures limit the propagation capacity of the pathogen, Neira does not see a decisive factor there, at least with what is known so far: "There are certain doubts about the relationship of the virus with climatology (... ) It is making the geographical journey that is expected of a virus that wants to survive. "

Despite everything, the doctor warns that it is still essential to maintain "great caution" in the de-escalation , a "critical" phase. Otherwise, the good omens of the WHO run the risk of being reversed. "The immunity figures are very low, you have to be very vigilant," he says. Finally, ask the population not to be paranoid and learn "to live with infectious diseases." Regarding Spain, he believes that lack of confinement will be "a day-to-day battle" and that its results will not be known in epidemiological terms for "two or three weeks".

 

[The Wizard]

Thought I’d post this as good news in the sense of how far we’ve come through this, RIP to all those lost but we are well on the way out the other side now.

 

[Weststander]

View attachment 124120

Thought I’d post this as good news in the sense of how far we’ve come through this, RIP to all those lost but we are well on the way out the other side now.

Almost 1/5 of peak. Good to see that so graphically, but RIP to the victims who continue to lose their lives.

 

[highflyer]

https://www.web24.news/u/2020/05/wh...covid-19-will-have-a-hard-time-surviving.html

Spot the coulds. They're also being quoted in plenty of articles saying pretty much the exact opposite today. Nobody can really know, they were confident there wouldn't be human to human transmissions yada yada

You still haven't really got the hang of this thread...

Anyway, thanks to the others that posted translations.

Yes. lot's of caution. Rightly so - it's still building fast in many parts of the world. But especially given who it comes from, the fact that models are showing less likelihood of a major second wave in those countries where it is coming under control is definitely good news.

 

[LamieRobertson]

You still haven't really got the hang of this thread...

Anyway, thanks to the others that posted translations.

Yes. lot's of caution. Rightly so - it's still building fast in many parts of the world. But especially given who it comes from, the fact that models are showing less likelihood of a major second wave in those countries where it is coming under control is definitely good news.

Well that’s what I was thinking ..I leave the debate for other threads with no disrespect meant to Mr Banana

 

[LamieRobertson]

The article referred to is in Spanish, but here’s a Google Translate version of it:

WHO now sees major outbreak of virus less feasible

Over time, a major outbreak of coronavirus becomes a remote possibility. This is stated on Monday in statements to RAC-1 by the director of Public Health of the World Health Organization (WHO), María Neira.

"There are many models that advance with a high probability. They speak from a punctual regrowth to a major wave, but this last possibility is increasingly being ruled out. We are much better prepared in all areas," says the Spanish.

Although seroprevalence studies undertaken in different countries, including Spain , have shown that the levels of contagion have not been sufficient to create group immunity that reduces the transmission capacity of the virus in a hypothetical second wave, Neira states that "we have lowered so much the transmission rate that the virus will have a hard time surviving. " "We must be very careful to say whether this is the end of the wave, but the data at least shows us that transmission and the explosion of the first weeks have been avoided," he adds.

Caution

Does this have something to do with the heat? Although it has been said that high temperatures limit the propagation capacity of the pathogen, Neira does not see a decisive factor there, at least with what is known so far: "There are certain doubts about the relationship of the virus with climatology (... ) It is making the geographical journey that is expected of a virus that wants to survive. "

Despite everything, the doctor warns that it is still essential to maintain "great caution" in the de-escalation , a "critical" phase. Otherwise, the good omens of the WHO run the risk of being reversed. "The immunity figures are very low, you have to be very vigilant," he says. Finally, ask the population not to be paranoid and learn "to live with infectious diseases." Regarding Spain, he believes that lack of confinement will be "a day-to-day battle" and that its results will not be known in epidemiological terms for "two or three weeks".

An interesting comment

 

[wehatepalace]

https://www.web24.news/u/2020/05/wh...covid-19-will-have-a-hard-time-surviving.html

I bet the BBC won’t report this, it would go against their “there’s going to be a second wave” angle of reporting !

 

[highflyer]

I bet the BBC won’t report this, it would go against their “there’s going to be a second wave” angle of reporting !

To be honest, given that there is still a LOT of unknowns, and a LOT of risks in being too quick in easing up, and given what I witnessed and heard about public behaviour yesterday - I'd also be very careful about putting out too much optimism. I don't like the levels of fear being generated, it seems unnecssary, but if people aren't able to act like sensible grown ups and its a choice between maintaining fear and letting loose the dogs of stupidity...

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

These charts project the number of people infected in the UK dropping rapidly-

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Today 26 May- 16k

26 June- 3k

26 July- 500

Etc.

When we get to July if numbers are that low, that is when I think most people will accept the risk of infection is so low that pretty much everything can return to normal. E.g. cafes, restaurants etc.

If there are pretty much no cases left my August I can't really see an issue with fans returning to football matches, if they want to. I appreciate some people may not want to.

 

[dazzer6666]

An interesting comment

Several things are starting to point (and I know this is an optimistic view) to Covid somewhat fizzling out to a significant extent..............almost feels like we're back to the 'it's a bit like flu innit' comments at the start of the whole thing. Can see a situation where people will probably still get it, there might be more significant outbreaks from time to time, and if you're especially vulnerable (and we're getting a much clearer idea of those vulnerabilities now) you should probably get vaccinated (as and when one is available) but the vast majority should just crack on and 'live with risk'. The mortality rates for fit and healthy people are really tiny.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Wow, what a great day, this thread is pulsating with Covid good news today, well done to all those contributors.

 

[nwgull]

I agree with everything you say.

Although there's a reckless facet to their behaviour as they still spread the virus, the idiots will fail to learn the lesson from Andrew Wakefield bullsh*t work on the MMR jab.

They'll spread the virus for a bit, but it'll die out eventually because the R number will be <1.

 

[nwgull]

These charts project the number of people infected in the UK dropping rapidly-

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

Today 26 May- 16k

26 June- 3k

26 July- 500

Etc.

When we get to July if numbers are that low, that is when I think most people will accept the risk of infection is so low that pretty much everything can return to normal. E.g. cafes, restaurants etc.

If there are pretty much no cases left my August I can't really see an issue with fans returning to football matches, if they want to. I appreciate some people may not want to.

Unless we have a case where over 2/3rds of the population is immune, though either a vaccine or natural immunity, any return to normal will result in proliferation of the virus again. We had cases in single figures in February, and look how quickly that escalated.

 

[atomised]

Unless we have a case where over 2/3rds of the population is immune, though either a vaccine or natural immunity, any return to normal will result in proliferation of the virus again. We had cases in single figures in February, and look how quickly that escalated.

In order to drag that comment back to the good news this thread is for if proliferation occurs we will be far better equipped to isolate such outbreaks. Just as seen with the initial outbreak in brighton

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Unless we have a case where over 2/3rds of the population is immune, though either a vaccine or natural immunity, any return to normal will result in proliferation of the virus again. We had cases in single figures in February, and look how quickly that escalated.

Not sure that counts as good news!

Anyway I disagree with you. On the upside of the curve the virus is in exponential expansion with a high R value, that is a different scenario. Where we are now on the downside with a R value less than one, provided it stays below 1 this can, as a matter of fact, only get smaller and die out. People gradually getting back to their normal lives will not change that IMHO. This is evidenced by every country which is releasing lockdown measures continuing to see case numbers fall.

 

[dazzer6666]

In order to drag that comment back to the good news this thread is for if proliferation occurs we will be far better equipped to isolate such outbreaks. Just as seen with the initial outbreak in brighton

Exactly - hence the importance of getting track and trace up and running. In theory, any outbreaks can be pinpointed and those potentially impacted advised straight away, and the outbreak ring-fenced to avoid spreading further.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Not sure that counts as good news!

Anyway I disagree with you. On the upside of the curve the virus is in exponential expansion with a high R value, that is a different scenario. Where we are now on the downside with a R value less than one, provided it stays below 1 this can, as a matter of fact, only get smaller and die out. People gradually getting back to their normal lives will not change that IMHO. This is evidenced by every country which is releasing lockdown measures continuing to see case numbers fall.

Doesn't that require it being non seasonal?