Meow
What? I mean the design on the blanket...
Meow
Message from junior tonight.....
Very weird around here, [her hospital] hasn't opened any more wards and current CV wards are still at only 50% of capacity, only 6 people in ITU... So no increase in hospitalised patients for over a week now, had 2 days in a row with no deaths too...
Similarly, at Worthing Hospital all the wards cleared for covid-19 cases, sit there empty week after week. Specially trained staff in readiness.
As of 5pm today 11 patients in ICU and 41 patients on the Covid wards across Worthing and Chichester hospitals.
Assume it means West Sussex is not as affected by the virus as much as other areas of the country. Think the rate of the virus in the county is 3% which is low compared to other areas.
Whether that is down to luck, adhering to the lockdown or the sea air who knows?!
Good news though, apparently they are thinking of reinstating some of their clinics, routine surgeries etc in the near future.
Good to hear that hospitals in Sussex (and elsewhere I believe) have not been over-run. Some time in late March, as it was becoming apparent just what we were in for, I heard someone (I think an epidemiologist) asked what success would look like and he said 'it will look like an over-reaction'.
Anyway - some postive news and lots of really interesting information here:
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-cases-fall
Key headline is that it seems that predicted symptomatic case numbers are falling fast (down 71% from 1st to 15th April) and this should translate over the next three weeks into very significant drops in hospitalization and deaths. Also interesting that London is no longer a 'hotspot' in terms of likely new cases and will be interesting to know if this is, in part, because of emerging 'herd immunity' there.
What the data shows above all is that the lock down is working well, and if we continue another three weeks we should be in a pretty good position to start the process of re-opening (very, very carefully). There is also an interesting webinar on the website where they discuss the use of the tracking app to help manage the risk of a second wave, as it can highlight emerging hotspots early. It seems to me that if you had 10 -20 million people using the app daily it could become one of the strongest tools we have to manage this until a treatment/vaccine emerges.