[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[A1X]

As per the above posts ...the same guy ..there are caveats and yes he is just one ‘expert’ but a relevant one for this thread



Words by Professor Karol Sikora, consultant oncologist

Every day I am bombarded with hundreds of tweets all asking the same question: "When will the lockdown end?"

To be honest, I don’t know. Nobody does and this is the problem. In a society so used to quick fixes and omniscient search engines, the coronavirus has turned the world on its head. Epidemiologists don’t know the answer, oncologists don’t know the answer and most importantly neither do the Prime Minister or Health Minister.

Rarely do I feel sorry for politicians, but they are making life and death decisions in areas they know little about, with only extremely vague data to go on. It is all too easy to criticise their approach. I have my own reservations but this is uncharted territory for everyone.
NHS drive-through testing centre.
NHS drive-through testing centre. Credit: PA
For some, the lockdown has caused minimal disruption. I’m able to work with relative ease from home, after a brief wrestle with the technology, I can effectively communicate with my patients. It has cut down on travel time, my dog has had more attention than he knows what to do with, and my wife hasn’t got too tetchy with me yet.

But, unfortunately for others it hasn’t been so easy. Businesses are closed – some never to recover; people are being laid off and stress is rising. Every commentator agrees the lockdown has to end as soon as possible, but when and how are the total unknowns.

One thing is for sure however, the measures are working. Earlier this week the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated that before the lockdown one positive person would infect 2.6 other people, now that number is just 0.62.
Stay at home now and the lockdown could be lifted by May.
Stay at home now and the lockdown could be lifted by May. Credit: PA
Brits told to stay home on sunny weekend to stop virus spread
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Scientists get very excited about this value – the R0. Most experts agree that the coronavirus has an R0 of around 2.6, meaning one corona-positive patient will infect on average 2.6 other people.

This may not sound like much, but over a population that number quickly grows. By forcing the R0 below one means the virus runs out of hosts to infect and it burns out. The lockdown is starving it of healthy bodies to infect and so the infection rate will fall. This has happened in Spain and Italy and it will happen here.

So the question is how do we release the lockdown and keep the R0 below 1? I’m more optimistic than most and have been willing to put rough dates on my caveated timeline.

Assuming there is no mutation of the virus and people remain compliant with the strict social distancing measures I believe starting in early May we can begin to return to some normality.
Life is slowly getting back to normal in South Korea.
Life is slowly getting back to normal in South Korea. Credit: AP
We currently have around 40,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK, but that figure is almost useless. We could times that figure by ten and still be a long way short. Without effective widespread virus and antibody testing, it could be anywhere between 0.5 and 30 million - or more.

Once it gets to more than half of the population, the virus has nowhere to go – the great phrase herd immunity kicks in. Getting a proper handle on the number already infected needs to be an urgent priority for the Government -ordering 17.5 million of these tests is a hugely encouraging start.

April is going to be a tough month. Cases, hospitalisations and deaths will rise, with the most upsetting death tolls coming around the 20th. It is going to be a stormy few weeks - but we will get through it.

By May, I hope the situation will have improved. If the antibody testing shows that the virus has spread far more widely than first estimated, businesses and shops can start to get back on their feet.

The strict social distancing measures could be relaxed and life will feel a lot more normal.
People are allowed to undertake one form of daily exercise.
People are allowed to undertake one form of daily exercise. Credit: PA
Parts of Asia have led the way in demonstrating how to beat back the virus. I read a piece from a Donegal man living in Seoul who was enjoying the South Korean nightlife with most bars and restaurants back to normal, albeit with widespread mask wearing and extra hand sanitiser. He was enjoying himself far more than his friends in Dublin.

If everyone behaves themselves now, there is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to get our pubs and restaurants open in time for summer. With large gatherings and international travel resuming shortly afterwards, by the height of summer the current lockdown will feel like a long time ago.

Faced with a choice between hope and fear, I choose hope every day of the week. I’ve treated cancer patients for almost 50 years now - you learn very quickly that fear will eat you from the inside. We have to see the light at the end of the tunnel, and there is one.

By the summer I hope to be back to seeing my patients face-to-face, leaving at home a very relieved wife and a slightly lonelier dog.

I genuinely hope someone in a prominent position comes out this week and says something along the lines of "If you adhere to the rules then things will start to be relaxed in about six weeks*, but if you don't then you'll stay cooped up for longer". I don't think I've heard anyone say anything along these lines, there's lots of "please stick to the rules" but no actual "if you do it, nice things, but if you don't, bad things" type reckoning.

*Figure plucked out of the air using posted article

 

[Mellotron]

I genuinely hope someone in a prominent position comes out this week and says something along the lines of "If you adhere to the rules then things will start to be relaxed in about six weeks*, but if you don't then you'll stay cooped up for longer". I don't think I've heard anyone say anything along these lines, there's lots of "please stick to the rules" but no actual "if you do it, nice things, but if you don't, bad things" type reckoning.

*Figure plucked out of the air using posted article

Yep. The ol carrot and stick.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Yep. The ol carrot and stick.

When we come out of this sh*t storm I think there'll be some interesting reflections (and research) on the effectiveness of the deployment of nudge theory/behavioural science. I've been a bt sceptical form the start but if it does the trick then great. The really big challenge might well come when the infections/deaths figures fall to the point where folk think it's all over and change behaviours. At that point, the messaging will need fine-tuning.

 

[Javeaseagull]

Here in Spain we MAY have reached a peak. Good news as we have been in proper lockdown for just over 3 weeks.
The Government are also talking about introducing Universal Basic Income but am not sure that will happen. Fantastic if true.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I would be delighted if we have already hit our peak, just feels a little early in lockdown for me...

Next couple of days numbers could give us a good idea...

Yes, you are right of course. I am expecting a fairly hefty rise tomorrow and in the subsequent days. But hope springs eternal.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Dunno, wouldn't want to speculate.......most of the experts seem to be predicting a peak next weekend before things start to plateau.

Mr Positive remains positive though - https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1247181728667533313?s=20

He was predicting the weekend after/early part of following being the most painful

 

[dazzer6666]

He was predicting the weekend after/early part of following being the most painful

So he's brought his prediction forward a week..........

 

[Mellotron]

So he's brought his prediction forward a week..........

It seems Italy’s peak was earlier than expected also.

 

[dazzer6666]

It seems Italy’s peak was earlier than expected also.

Well, hope he's right........

https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/status/1247218598181044224?s=20

 

[Mellotron]

China reports no new deaths across a 24 hour period for first time. Here’s hoping that is true - if so, it would again point to a far higher number of people having been infected that first thought, given they have relaxed their lockdown to an extent now.

 

[Mellotron]

Also, have been thinking - if we are due our peak within next 6-9 days, and there is a reasonable incubation period for this virus - wouldn’t that suggest we are hitting the infection peak round about right now? ie within a few days, your chance of being infected will be going down, slowly at first and then exponentially.

If someone isn’t convinced by this logic, please say. Makes sense to me at least.

 

[Solid at the back]

Also, have been thinking - if we are due our peak within next 6-9 days, and there is a reasonable incubation period for this virus - wouldn’t that suggest we are hitting the infection peak round about right now? ie within a few days, your chance of being infected will be going down, slowly at first and then exponentially.

If someone isn’t convinced by this logic, please say. Makes sense to me at least.

This is what I'm hoping, I'm due back to work tomorrow!

 

[Mellotron]

This is what I'm hoping, I'm due back to work tomorrow!

Hope you’re doing well mate.

What do you work in?

 

[pearl]

Also, have been thinking - if we are due our peak within next 6-9 days, and there is a reasonable incubation period for this virus - wouldn’t that suggest we are hitting the infection peak round about right now? ie within a few days, your chance of being infected will be going down, slowly at first and then exponentially.

If someone isn’t convinced by this logic, please say. Makes sense to me at least.

I was thinking something like this yesterday, but you have put it much better. If we all stick to the rules this could soon be over

 

[LamieRobertson]

I was thinking something like this yesterday, but you have put it much better. If we all stick to the rules this could soon be over

I guess it depends what you mean by over...... I remain cautiously optimistic about some relaxation of current restrictions first of all...when is anyone’s guess....Beginning of May?...last on first off....first on last off....one step at a time ..but we have hope.

 

[Bozza]

I guess it depends what you mean by over...... I remain cautiously optimistic about some relaxation of current restrictions first of all...when is anyone’s guess....Beginning of May?...last on first off....first on last off....one step at a time ..but we have hope.

Indeed. Until the "have you had it already" tests are used to provide some statistically significant estimates as to how many people have had it, we don't know how many people are still susceptible, but I find it hard to believe that tens of millions of the population still haven't, are still at risk of catching it, and the risk of overwhelming the health system remains.

 

[A1X]

China reports no new deaths across a 24 hour period for first time. Here’s hoping that is true - if so, it would again point to a far higher number of people having been infected that first thought, given they have relaxed their lockdown to an extent now.

While this is good news I do find it tough to properly believe any of the figures coming out of China from this crisis.

 

[Mellotron]

While this is good news I do find it tough to properly believe any of the figures coming out of China from this crisis.

I agree, however if there was a significant re-infection happening I don’t believe they’d be able to keep that under wraps.

 

[highflyer]

I agree, however if there was a significant re-infection happening I don’t believe they’d be able to keep that under wraps.

Agree - while there are definitely questions over measurements and numbers, and of course questions about how successful they will be in preventing any new outbreaks, but I see few people, even the right wing ant-China commentators in the US, claiming that China is covering up a major problem now. And also there is South Korea, are they also engaging in a cover up?

 

[darkwolf666]

I was thinking something like this yesterday, but you have put it much better. If we all stick to the rules this could soon be over

I know you mean well and I admire your positivity, but for many of the 1.5 million very vulnerable this will be far from over... At least if the morons behave they may have a bed to die in and not get turned away...