[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Mellotron]

'More than one vaccine' will be available early in 2021, SAGE scientist says

More than one coronavirus vaccine will be available in the next three to six months, a government scientific adviser has told Sky News.

Sir Jeremy Farrar, who sits on the SAGE committee, said: "I think in the first quarter of next year we will have vaccines - we will have more than one vaccine."

He is expecting data on vaccines in November and December, pointing out that the UK has a "portfolio" of potential options.

He is also hopeful that treatments will begin to make a big difference in the new year.

His optimism echoes that of Jonathan Van-Tam, England's deputy chief medical officer, who has reportedly said a mass rollout of the jab being created at the University of Oxford and manufactured by AstraZeneca could happen around the turn of the year.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...le-early-in-2021-sage-scientist-says-12107285

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I can understand that the placebo info would be kept away from staff at patient-facing level, but there must be people at analysis level that have the data on which subjects have the placebo and which have the real deal, surely?

It’s a double blind study, so no they won’t.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04516746?term=NCT04516746&draw=2&rank=1

 

[Mellotron]

Vaccine doses begin rolling off production line

‘Hundreds of thousands’ of doses of a potential coronavirus vaccine have already been manufactured, it’s been revealed.

The Pfizer jab is being stock-piled en masse at the drug giant’s plant in Puurs, Belgium and could be put in for approval in the US in November, The Mail on Sunday reports.

It comes as the UK’s deputy chief medical officer said a different potential vaccine – produced by Oxford University and Astra Zeneca – could enter the third stage of clinical trials in December and be rolled out just after Christmas. Jonathan Van Tam reportedly told MPs this week: ‘we aren’t light years away from it.’

In news that will bring some hope to the millions around the world suffering from the impact of the pandemic, the two leading potential vaccines have apparently taken big steps forward recently.

Pfizer’s UK boss Ben Osborn told the Mail on Sunday: ‘It was great to see the first vial coming off the manufacturing line.

‘It just brought a tremendous smile to my face to see all of this work actually result in a product.’

Up to 100 million doses could be made available this year, of which 40 million will end up in the UK. The company is already planning to manufacture 1.3 billion jabs in 2021

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/18/hope...es-seen-rolling-off-production-line-13440956/

 

[Mellotron]

Looking feasible we could have anywhere from 1 to 3 working, approved vaccines before the year is out.

Moderna CEO eyes December for COVID vaccine

Moderna Inc. Chief Executive Stéphane Bancel said the federal government could authorize emergency use of the company's experimental Covid-19 vaccine in December, if the company gets positive interim results in November from a large clinical trial.

Mr. Bancel, speaking during The Wall Street Journal's annual Tech Live conference Monday, said sufficient interim results from the study takes longer to get, government authorization of the vaccine may not occur until early next year.

Cambridge, Mass.,-based Moderna has one of the leading Covid-19 vaccines in development, along with a vaccine co-developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE. Large U.S. trials for two other leading Covid-19 vaccines, from Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca PLC, have been paused, while the companies investigate unexplained illnesses among study subjects.

Mr. Bancel's comments suggest Moderna's timetable isn't far off from Pfizer's, which said last week it expects to seek U.S. authorization of emergency use of its vaccine by late November.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-ceo-eyes-december-for-covid-vaccine-2020-10-19

 

[southstandandy]

Have only spent £100 on petrol since March for the car. Ususally typical spend for us as a couple is about £100 per month so quids in for a saving of at least £700.

Will go towards the holiday pot, as and when we can ever travel safely again.

 

[Poojah]

Looking feasible we could have anywhere from 1 to 3 working, approved vaccines before the year is out.

Moderna CEO eyes December for COVID vaccine



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moderna-ceo-eyes-december-for-covid-vaccine-2020-10-19

Looking positive. A question for the more learned than I on NSC; let's say we have a scenario whereby we have three vaccines, each with an efficacy of 50%. Could people receive multiple vaccines so that in effect, accounting for a degree overlap, the combined efficacy of those vaccines is pushing much closer to the holy grail of 100%?

I've no idea if things work this way or not, but it just feels like this could be crucial if there is a potentially understandable scepticism in some quarters that reduces take-up.

 

[Marshy]

We are purchasing the huge freezers to go in Pharmacy to store the vaccine's when they arrive already.

And as this is the good news thread, I am still being told that new year is very much on the cards.

Keep positive guys, stay well, light at the end of the tunnel

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Looking positive. A question for the more learned than I on NSC; let's say we have a scenario whereby we have three vaccines, each with an efficacy of 50%. Could people receive multiple vaccines so that in effect, accounting for a degree overlap, the combined efficacy of those vaccines is pushing much closer to the holy grail of 100%?

I've no idea if things work this way or not, but it just feels like this could be crucial if there is a potentially understandable scepticism in some quarters that reduces take-up.

Highly unlikely as the various vaccines will initially be tested as mono-therapy. For example the link I provided above shows the AZ/Oxford study precludes any subject who has taken previous, or concomitant, Covid vaccine.

The primary issue will be safety as the interaction between the treatments is untested.

 

[Poojah]

Highly unlikely as the various vaccines will initially be tested as mono-therapy. For example the link I provided above shows the AZ/Oxford study precludes any subject who has taken previous, or concomitant, Covid vaccine.

The primary issue will be safety as the interaction between the treatments is untested.

Thanks, makes sense. I suppose at least in theory that even if multiple vaccines cannot be used in a single individual, cumulative efficacy could still be built up by vaccinating different groups (the elderly for instance) with the vaccine proven to be most effective in them.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Looking positive. A question for the more learned than I on NSC; let's say we have a scenario whereby we have three vaccines, each with an efficacy of 50%. Could people receive multiple vaccines so that in effect, accounting for a degree overlap, the combined efficacy of those vaccines is pushing much closer to the holy grail of 100%?

I've no idea if things work this way or not, but it just feels like this could be crucial if there is a potentially understandable scepticism in some quarters that reduces take-up.

The holy grail of 100% is unrealistic, and also unnecessary imho. As well as new vaccines, new (and old) treatments for those who are already infected are also being developed and tested. If you can immunise a significant chunk of the population, and successfully treat the others, you are well on your way to success.

 

[dazzer6666]

This was buried deep in the DT today.........not quite sure why it isn't more prominent...........

The Government has secured up to 20 million 15-minute testing kits to be fast-tracked to Covid-19 hotspots.

The new lateral flow technology could be used to provide rapid results at venues such as airports, theatres and other public places.

Officials plan to distribute the tests to local public health teams in areas of high transmission in the first instance.

They will also be made available to hospitals, care homes, schools and universities, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has said.

The Telegraph can reveal that the Government has struck a deal to purchase millions of kits after the technology was validated at the Public Health England (PHE) Porton Down facility.

A source familiar with the arrangement described it as a "game-changer" that promised "a return to normal life".


The roll-out of the technology has been hailed by the health select committee chairman, Jeremy Hunt, as "potentially the most significant news we have heard in the fight against the virus for many weeks".

The Innova SARS-Cov-2 Antigen Test, manufactured by Innova Tried and Tested, is less complicated than the standard PCR test, meaning tests can be processed at venues in the community rather than needing to be sent to high tech labs.

Its relative simplicity also reduces the need for a cold storage logistics chain. It currently uses the same swab method of obtaining samples, but it is understood Innova is working to convert that to detect Covid-19 in saliva samples, which could speed it up further.

A source said the £15 test had shown 100 per cent specificity – the ability to correctly identify a positive sample – and 96 per cent sensitivity, the ability to correctly identify a negative sample.

Addressing Parliament on Monday, Mr Hancock said: "We are rolling them out across hospitals and care homes, to test patients and residents yet more regularly to help keep people safe, and for schools and universities so we can keep education open safely through the winter.

"These tests have shown real promise, and we are both buying them now and ramping up our ability to produce them at scale right here in the UK."

The Government has already set a target of 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, and ministers spent more than £500 million in the last two weeks on laboratory-based machines that could more than triple the capacity of 300,000 tests a day.

 

[Napper]

The vaccines only really need to be for the elderley and highly vulnerable for life to get back to normal . Hoping the roll out for those groups can be pretty quick.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

The vaccines only really need to be for the elderley and highly vulnerable for life to get back to normal . Hoping the roll out for those groups can be pretty quick.

Not strictly true as immunisation reduces transmission via herd concepts I.e. immunising non-vulnerable groups will help albeit slightly.

 

[Poojah]

The holy grail of 100% is unrealistic, and also unnecessary imho. As well as new vaccines, new (and old) treatments for those who are already infected are also being developed and tested. If you can immunise a significant chunk of the population, and successfully treat the others, you are well on your way to success.

Yeah, I understand that 100% is practically impossible - I think measles is the gold standard with about 90% - 95% isn't it? I guess my thinking was that if you need to a get to a point where lets say 60% of the population is immune, you'd need a vaccine with a higher efficacy than 60% because not all of the population can or will be vaccinated.

Of course, that's assuming you're starting from a base of 0%, which we're almost certainly not. I guess it's plausible that by the time a vaccine arrives 15% - 20% of us will have 'experienced' the virus and in the short-term at least will have a degree of natural immunity*.

* I know there has been the odd story of reinfection, but these seem pretty rare for the most part right now.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yeah, I understand that 100% is practically impossible - I think measles is the gold standard with about 90% - 95% isn't it? I guess my thinking was that if you need to a get to a point where lets say 60% of the population is immune, you'd need a vaccine with a higher efficacy than 60% because not all of the population can or will be vaccinated.

Of course, that's assuming you're starting from a base of 0%, which we're almost certainly not. I guess it's plausible that by the time a vaccine arrives 15% - 20% of us will have 'experienced' the virus and in the short-term at least will have a degree of natural immunity*.

* I know there has been the odd story of reinfection, but these seem pretty rare for the most part right now.

Immunisation also protects the un-immunised so there will be some mitigation of the numbers who don’t get vaccinated; no idea of what the % is though.

This link sheds some light on this https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/86/2/07-040089/en/

 

[Mellotron]

This was buried deep in the DT today.........not quite sure why it isn't more prominent...........

The Government has secured up to 20 million 15-minute testing kits to be fast-tracked to Covid-19 hotspots.

The new lateral flow technology could be used to provide rapid results at venues such as airports, theatres and other public places.

Officials plan to distribute the tests to local public health teams in areas of high transmission in the first instance.

They will also be made available to hospitals, care homes, schools and universities, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, has said.

The Telegraph can reveal that the Government has struck a deal to purchase millions of kits after the technology was validated at the Public Health England (PHE) Porton Down facility.

A source familiar with the arrangement described it as a "game-changer" that promised "a return to normal life".


The roll-out of the technology has been hailed by the health select committee chairman, Jeremy Hunt, as "potentially the most significant news we have heard in the fight against the virus for many weeks".

The Innova SARS-Cov-2 Antigen Test, manufactured by Innova Tried and Tested, is less complicated than the standard PCR test, meaning tests can be processed at venues in the community rather than needing to be sent to high tech labs.

Its relative simplicity also reduces the need for a cold storage logistics chain. It currently uses the same swab method of obtaining samples, but it is understood Innova is working to convert that to detect Covid-19 in saliva samples, which could speed it up further.

A source said the £15 test had shown 100 per cent specificity – the ability to correctly identify a positive sample – and 96 per cent sensitivity, the ability to correctly identify a negative sample.

Addressing Parliament on Monday, Mr Hancock said: "We are rolling them out across hospitals and care homes, to test patients and residents yet more regularly to help keep people safe, and for schools and universities so we can keep education open safely through the winter.

"These tests have shown real promise, and we are both buying them now and ramping up our ability to produce them at scale right here in the UK."

The Government has already set a target of 500,000 tests a day by the end of October, and ministers spent more than £500 million in the last two weeks on laboratory-based machines that could more than triple the capacity of 300,000 tests a day.

Quick tests are probably our best chance of getting in to see some football before the season ends, imo.

 

[beorhthelm]

Yeah, I understand that 100% is practically impossible - I think measles is the gold standard with about 90% - 95% isn't it? I guess my thinking was that if you need to a get to a point where lets say 60% of the population is immune, you'd need a vaccine with a higher efficacy than 60% because not all of the population can or will be vaccinated.

Of course, that's assuming you're starting from a base of 0%, which we're almost certainly not. I guess it's plausible that by the time a vaccine arrives 15% - 20% of us will have 'experienced' the virus and in the short-term at least will have a degree of natural immunity*.

* I know there has been the odd story of reinfection, but these seem pretty rare for the most part right now.

mustnt mix up immunity (which can be obtained from exposure, other reasons) and the efficacy of a vaccine. to the earlier question, efficacy is not cumulative, giving people two 50% efficacy vaccines does not up to 100%. it'll probably be somewhere over 50% depending on why the efficacy is 50%, but in individuals could be 0% because they dont respond to either. i expect multiple vaccines will be distributed through the population, they wont be giving many people multiple jabs.

 

[Mellotron]

My understanding is also that an effectiveness of 70% doesn’t necessarily mean it’s blanket 70% effective for every single person.

It may be it is more effective in younger, healthier people, and less so in the elderly, or vice versa, etc, giving an average of 70%. Could be wrong though.

 

[Mellotron]

Operation Moonshot: pilot of rapid Covid tests under way in NHS hospitals

A new trial of rapid, mass Covid testing has begun in hospitals and will soon be rolled out to schools, universities and care homes, Downing Street has announced, in the latest attempt to push ahead with the so-called Operation Moonshot.

The pilot scheme is under way with tests of asymptomatic NHS staff at hospitals in Manchester, Southampton and Basingstoke, Boris Johnson’s spokesman said, and in the coming weeks this will be extended to hospitals in Liverpool, Birmingham, Leeds and Newcastle.

The trial will then begin testing people in schools, universities and care homes in the worst-affected regions, the spokesman said without specifying which these were.

Two types of tests will be used. Hospitals will use lamp tests, an abbreviation for loop-mediated isothermal amplification, which is a swab and saliva method that delivers results in 60 to 90 minutes.

Schools, universities and care homes will use lateral flow tests, a swab test that does not need processing in a laboratory and gives a result in less than an hour, and often significantly less.

It is the latest incarnation of what Johnson announced in September as Operation Moonshot, a £100bn plan to deliver up to 10m tests a day, seen by ministers as the best way to bring back some sort of more normal life before an effective vaccine for coronavirus is fully available.

By showing that asymptomatic people do not have Covid, such huge-scale testing could allow workplaces to operate more normally or be used to bring crowds back to theatres and sports venues by testing them before they arrive.

https://www.theguardian.com/society...-rapid-covid-tests-under-way-in-nhs-hospitals

 

[dazzer6666]

‘No sign of a second wave’ as figures show deaths normal

http://digitaleditions.telegraph.co...d/0/package/393/pub/393/page/25/article/94285