[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[beorhthelm]

Exactly 2 weeks after VE Day street parties.

There must have been some superspreaders out and about partying.

you'd expect most cases a week or so from a superspread event, only outliers two weeks on.

 

[Postman Pat]

The Government have now decided to abandon the “World beating “centralised tracking app and move to decentralised Apple/Google app like the majority of the rest of the world


Another major u-turn, but, hopefully we can move forward with confidence now.

Does that mean overseas travel will be easier with common app/tech?

Did see the wikipedia guy had offered to build it for free.

 

[LamieRobertson]

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[Poojah]

Not really 'news', just some ramblings I just shared in the 'fans in stadiums by September thread'.

TLDR: I did some calculations on a packet of Silk Cut and it told me this will all be over by September / October.

I'm personally of the opinion that having crowds of any kind at stadiums will not happen until such a time we are able to entirely drop the concept of social distancing. Logistically, the getting to, out and back from grounds isn't going to work.

Question is, could that happen by September? I was bored, so I did a bit of 'back of fag packet maths'. The average number of new cases for the past 7 days is 1,305; for the same period in May it was 3,502 and in April it was 5,503. That means that April to May saw a decline of 36.5%, and May to June a decline of 62.7%. Ergo: not only are the cases coming down, the rate at which they are dropping is increasing (all with a backdrop of increasing test numbers)

This is a big assumption (I'll come back to this in a moment), but if that rate of acceleration in the decline of the numbers is to continue, we can expect daily cases to have dropped by 78% month-on-month by this point in July, 87% August and 93% September. Here's what that would look like.

View attachment 125054

In effect then, based on this very rudimentary model we could have practically eradicated the virus by mid-September - at least back to levels where track and trace systems can effectively contain it. Is it realistic though?

I don't have a crystal ball, but we do have countries that have had similar outbreaks to our own which are a bit further on in their recovery. So, I took a look at where those countries were a month after hitting the circa 1,300 daily cases mark. Here's how it stacks up:

Italy: 200 - 350
Spain: 250 - 400
France: 200 - 500 (their case reporting looks less consistent)

Give or take a little, they're not all that far off where my fag packet suggests they should have been. Of course, the critical part is what happens between the end of month 1 and month 3; my model assumes that the virus is fizzling out for reasons other than social distancing and that there is no second wave. I personally don't think there will be, but I am 100% a layman and I accept there is absolutely no certainty whatsoever in those two pre-requisites.

But for me it does serve as optimism that we could be back in full stadiums sooner than you might think. If not September, then maybe October. I hope I'm right*.

*Caveat: I'm usually not.

 

[Mellotron]

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[Poojah]

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Extrapolated to the entire UK, that would equate to 27,000 cases in total. That would mean just under 1 in every 2,500 people have it. If it’s true that asymptomatic people are less likely to spread, and those with symptoms and their recent contacts are self-isolating, you’d have to say the odds of getting coronavirus in this country are looking increasingly small.

 

[LamieRobertson]

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Not sure where he got the graph from ..but the guy has been tweeting most days with the usual graphs etc

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

I know this is the good news thread and those Sussex charts are definitely good news, but why on earth my kids are not at school looking at that data is quite frankly beyond me?

Which school and year group?

 

[Guinness Boy]

This isn't statistical good news but.....

I have a day off today (we have mandatory vacation this quarter at work that means I'm on 4 days weeks most weeks) and am sitting here catching up on NSC and listening to the Today programme on Radio 4 - which I have not done since February. Having been actively avoiding the news it's been an absolute pleasure to hear a discussion of a report into the Labour party, a Premier League and Ascot preview (including the return of the racing tips) and discussions about legal justice. Covid remains an underlying theme but it is not the only show on the stage. As things return to normal hopefully so will people's mental health. Now, time to put a few bets on

 

[LamieRobertson]

Might find this interesting

New Italian study: recent"positive" are not contagious. Under 100K copies of RNA there is zero risk of contagion, as confirmed by multiple studies (i.e. Korea tracing all 790 contacts of 251 positive asymptomatic and finding 0 positives) - @FrancescoLari

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[darkwolf666]

Not really 'news', just some ramblings I just shared in the 'fans in stadiums by September thread'.

TLDR: I did some calculations on a packet of Silk Cut and it told me this will all be over by September / October.

You are Dominic Cummings and I claim my £5

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Fantastic news for this lady and her family.
92 days in st Richards hospital and coming out.

Beware do not watch the video if at all emotional!

https://www.spiritfm.net/news/susse...ying-covid-19-patient-finally-comes-home/amp/

 

[atomised]

Coronavirus alert level reduced to 3

 

[dazzer6666]

Coronavirus alert level reduced to 3

Def good news, and will open up further easing of restrictions.............suspect this is a precursor to the 2m rule being relaxed very soon.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-uk-alert-level

 

[vegster]

Def good news, and will open up further easing of restrictions.............suspect this is a precursor to the 2m rule being relaxed very soon.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-from-the-uk-chief-medical-officers-on-the-uk-alert-level

Almost certainly, the 2m rule is a major stumbling block for many industries and workplaces thanks to the fact that we try to cram as many desks, counters and machines in as possible to make money. In my store, the staff room is only marginally bigger than the toilets and distancing is impossible, also the windowless room where I work with two other colleagues is about 4m x 3m, I used to joke that the RSPCA wouldn't let us keep chickens in that environment but its ok to keep 3 people in there for 8 hours a day.

The 2m rule is the one which is holding back the schools too and they need to re-open fully before many people can get back to work themselves. I think that Johnson has been advised that the worst is over but that the economy is seriously going to fall apart soon unless we accept a small but regular death toll as the price for economic recovery. He might even be banking on the fact that most of the vulnerable members of our society who would have a high chance of death from Covid-19 have already done so such is the callous state of government today.

So, it looks like we are going to go with Johnson's original plan of " herd immunity " with temporary local lockdowns if necessary.

 

[Mellotron]

Coronavirus alert level reduced to 3

This is very good news - especially as this comes from the scientists direct.

Hope it’s not too long til we can get to Alert level 2 - which will include “minimal social distancing”.

 

[atomised]

This is very good news - especially as this comes from the scientists direct.

Hope it’s not too long til we can get to Alert level 2 - which will include “minimal social distancing”.

I expect if progress continues we will be there in time for schools to return in september

 

[southstandandy]

For those that like a trip to the Cinema, I've just had an email saying Cineworld are re-opening on Friday July 10th. One suspects the other chains will follow suit (albeit with some social distancing measures in place) but still positive news if you like a trip to the flicks.

Just hope they have some films to show! Although the new Nolan film 'Tenet' looks like it will be the first big movie released.

 

[Insel affe]

For those that like a trip to the Cinema, I've just had an email saying Cineworld are re-opening on Friday July 10th. One suspects the other chains will follow suit (albeit with some social distancing measures in place) but still positive news if you like a trip to the flicks

Oh great news.

The listings are out, and they kick off with these two crackers...

 

[LamieRobertson]

For those that like a trip to the Cinema, I've just had an email saying Cineworld are re-opening on Friday July 10th. One suspects the other chains will follow suit (albeit with some social distancing measures in place) but still positive news if you like a trip to the flicks.

Just hope they have some films to show! Although the new Nolan film 'Tenet' looks like it will be the first big movie released.

Looking forward to Autumn and the Bond release