** The Championship - As it Stands - Remaining Games **

[severnside gull]

Seems I am the only one who sees Bournemouth as the major threat.
It's only their goal difference that will see them lose out IMO.

 

[Giraffe]

Seems I am the only one who sees Bournemouth as the major threat.
It's only their goal difference that will see them lose out IMO.

The muff are a worry for sure, but I have a feeling they will run out of steam.

I think we really need to be targeting to catch Wigan. Their season could collapse and we could yet snatch 5th.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Best thing the football league ever did, bringing in the play off system.

Look at the table - just four games to go, and over HALF the teams in the league (down to Watford in 13th) have a chance of promotion. Superb.


If it were standard top three system, then everyone below Wigan would be playing out dead rubbers, in front of empty grounds.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Best thing the football league ever did, bringing in the play off system.

Look at the table - just four games to go, and over HALF the teams in the league (down to Watford in 13th) have a chance of promotion. Superb.


If it were standard top three system, then everyone below Wigan would be playing out dead rubbers, in front of empty grounds.

Whereas instead, you have Wigan, Blackburn & Middlesbrough, each with it all to play for, playing in front of empty grounds

(I agree entirely, the play offs are great for the game)

 

[Paris]

Seems I am the only one who sees Bournemouth as the major threat.
It's only their goal difference that will see them lose out IMO.

I can see Bournemouth coming unstuck. Ipswich and Millwall will be tricky. Sheffield Wednesday and Forest at Dean Court could be tough as well.

Adkins getting his excuses in early. Like they're the only team in the country to suffer on the injury front:

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/27034556

 

[Triggaaar]

Seems I am the only one who sees Bournemouth as the major threat.
It's only their goal difference that will see them lose out IMO.

So you think they will lose out due to goal difference. That'll do me.

Last weekend I thought they were the major threat, thanks to winning 8 of their last 10 games. And they still are a big threat, but now being 2 points behind, with the worst goal difference, with only 4 games to go, they seem less of a threat than the other 2.

 

[Triggaaar]

Adkins getting his excuses in early. Like they're the only team in the country to suffer on the injury front:

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/27034556

Ah that's nice to read.

It's got to that stage of the season where I'm struggling to think of anything else. And given that I ultimately expect us to fall short, that's not a good thing.

 

[Jim D]

I disagree with a few on here as I think Blackburn have absolutely no chance. Their problem is not making up 4 points over 4 games, it's that they need to overhaul so many teams. Even if they win all their matches, it only takes ONE of us, Ipswich or Reading to take 8 points from 4 games and they are out of it. So I think it's a straight 1 from 4 situation. I think Wigan are safe because they still have to play Blackpool and Birmingham, both of whom are woeful, so just taking 6 points there will be enough for them.

I think a point is a decent result at Huddersfield. They still need a result to be sure of staying up so it'll be tough. But Ipswich go to Watford and Reading go to Wigan this weekend, so you have to hope they won't get much. If we can get a draw at Huddersfield and beat both Blackpool and Yeovil at home (and there is no excuse for not doing this) then I'm 99% sure we will go to Forest with it in our own hands, and that's the best we can hope for at this stage. Not that we knew it when the fixtures came out, but being handed Blackpool and Yeovil as the final two home matches was an absolute DREAM and an opportunity we can't waste. I'm pretty confident we will make the top six as long as we beat both of them. Mess one up and we'll probably miss out.

Watford are the interesting ones. They are well capable of winning their last 5 games (including Ipswich, Derby and QPR) and if they do they'll have 72 points and a much better goal difference. To use a golfing term - that would be the lead in the clubhouse.

 

[Napper]

You'd strongly fancy us home to Blackpool and Yeovil. Very Very strongly fancy us.

1 game at a time and all that old rubbish but this Fridays game is looking like the key for me. Win that and I think we can back it up. Lose and I think we may just run out of games.

If we have to go to Forest and get something (and assuming Forest are gone) then I think we could do that (Preferably a point).

Hudds game worrys me a lot, not won in so many games , 2 defenders out , players falling out with Robins . .. . just the game we will blow it. Hudds also are not safe so are targeting this to clinch it.

Got to be 1 at a time though. Friday absolute massive game. Can't think about Monday until we got through that really.

Literally a 4 game season so anything can happen and the best side may not make it

 

[father_and_son]

IMO the three games that will decide this are Wigan vs Reading, Ipswich vs Bournemouth and Forest vs Us.

5th...
If Reading beat Wigan then they have an easy* run in to snatch one of the places, if not then it should be Wigan taking that place.
[* Relatively]

6th...
From the 4 teams I think will compete for the last place (Us, Bournemuff and the tractor boys plus Reading/Wigan), the first three can't all grab 3 points from the two critical games. If Ipswich/Bournemouth were to be a draw, then it would really leave it open for us to take the points off Forest and the place. Whoever wins Ipswich/Bournemouth will, IMO, be with us on the same points for 6th and it will be goal difference that makes the call.


What I want for my birthday...
Wigan to beat Reading convincingly and knock them out of the running and making themselves safe for 5th.
Ipswich and Bournemouth to draw and us to take 3pts from Forest.

A nice extra gift would be another 'Blackpool' game like last year (Blackpool or Huddersfield could provide this!) for us to build the GD cushion I worry we will need.


None of the other games are certainties, but these are the ones I see as make or break for each club.

 

[Simster]

I don't wish to seem dismissive, but Watford have got absolutely no chance. They need to win all five games (some task considering they've only won four of their last 10) and even then they would find it isn't enough if just one of Ipswich, Reading, Bournemouth or us have a really good finish. And, as if that wasn't unlikely enough, the five games they need to win include trips to QPR and Derby and a home game with Ipswich.

This.

Watford and Blackburn both conceded injury time equalisers in their 3-3 draws last weekend - I think their chances went then. I know Blackburn have an easy run-in, but it's too much for them to ask that Albion, Reading, Ipswich and Bournemouth ALL drop lots of points.

It's quite simple - Wigan, Albion, Reading, Ipswich and Bournemouth are competing for two spots, with Wigan strong favourites for one of them.

 

[Paris]

On the subject of Watford, that Almunia last minute howler at Millwall the other day was a classic. He should be investigated for match-fixing

IF we do manage to get into the play-off's this season the fact that we wouldn't be the favourites, unlike last year, may well take the pressure off. A second leg away from the Amex might be a positive factor as well. I'm thinking too far ahead I know

 

[Triggaaar]

Watford are the interesting ones. They are well capable of winning their last 5 games (including Ipswich, Derby and QPR) and if they do they'll have 72 points and a much better goal difference. To use a golfing term - that would be the lead in the clubhouse.

Your golfing analogy is backwards. The leader in the clubhouse is like the cricket team with runs on the board - and Watford have a game in hand, so it's everyone else that's leading in the clubhouse. If Watford win all 5 (very unlikely), one of use only needs 3 wins out of 5 to beat them. Anyway, no need to discuss this - if you think they'll do it, they're 33-1, so fill your boots.

 

[Triggaaar]

Exactly. I fully expect at least one of us, Ipswich, Reading or Bournemouth to pick up 8+ points from the remaining games, which instantly rules out Blackburn and Watford even if they win every match.

We'd need 9, Bournemouth would need to win every game.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Another factor is promotion / play-off experience. We have this, Reading has this, Ipswich and Bournemouth don't.

As a manager, Oscar Garcia walked the Israeli league by 10 points, so it's not as if that went down to the wire.

 

[Jim D]

Exactly. I fully expect at least one of us, Ipswich, Reading or Bournemouth to pick up 8+ points from the remaining games, which instantly rules out Blackburn and Watford even if they win every match.

The Albion have disappointed us plenty of times this season and our form seems to swing back and forth on an almost match-by-match basis so I'm far from certain we will deliver. But I am now increasingly hopeful because I guarantee that EVERY other club in the pack would love to have our fixtures. You just can't buy an opportunity like Blackpool (h) followed by Yeovil (h) at this stage of the season. We need to get at least a point at Huddersfield as I doubt we will lose any ground bearing in mind the other fixtures on Friday, and then we MUST beat Blackpool because that would then put a loser in the Ipswich v Bournemouth fixture on Monday almost out of the race. Follow it up with a win against Yeovil and that would probably leave another club either out of contention or with a mountain to climb on the final day.

If I had to call it now, I think this is shaping up to be a last-day decider between us and Ipswich. Reading will probably have a mathematical chance too, but I expect them to behind us and Ipswich once the next three games have been played. I am now just PRAYING that we go to Forest in 6th place and with our fate in our hands, because Ipswich are at home to Sheffield Wednesday on the last day and will surely win if they have to.

I agree with all that you're saying and I can't fault the logic behind it. BUT, if this season has shown us anything, it's that logic doesn't help much. Teams in all positions can win or lose against just about anybody. We're all thinking that the only matches that us/Ipswich/Reading/Wigan/B'mth etc will lose are against each other but I will guarantee right now it won't be the case. Teams will lose or draw against those in the lower levels - and yes, I include us. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see 72 points getting 6th place.

 

[TSB]

The bookies already have us down as most likely for a top 6 finish out of the pack (not including Wigan)

PaddyPower's odds -

BHA - 13/8
Reading - 9/4
Bournemouth, Ipswich - 3/1
Blackburn - 20/1

This was the last time we were favourites to achieve something:
https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?277768-9-4-Fav-to-win-play-offs

Sorry.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

We have won three league games in a row once this season. Doncaster, Blackburn and Wigan in Nov.

We have won two league games in a row four times (Brum/Burnley in Aug, Leicester/Boro in Dec, QPR/Bolton in March, Leicester/Charlton in April).

I know we are coming in to form, but do people really think we could win the next four - making six wins on the trot? Seems unlikely to me. But a run of two wins, a draw/loss and another win might be possible.