The BIG Grand National Thread

[New Carpet?]

I've gone for a tasty outsider in Nozic at 100/1, who looked a class horse about a year and a half ago, and is generously in at the weights. It also has the added bonus of last year's winning jockey, Liam Treadwell, on board.

I'm also backing three others, win only, but they're all just cover bets at 16/1 or shorter.

 

[Iamapen15]

E/W on 'Beat the Boys' and 'Conna Castle'

 

[Ludensian Gull]

Arbor Supreme £10 win

 

[Simster]

I've gone for a tasty outsider in Nozic at 100/1, who looked a class horse about a year and a half ago, and is generously in at the weights. It also has the added bonus of last year's winning jockey, Liam Treadwell, on board.

I'm also backing three others, win only, but they're all just cover bets at 16/1 or shorter.

Just PLUCKED Nozic out of the company sweepstake. I may now have to supplement that with a cheeky each way bet on said horsey.

 

[Brian Fantana]

Gone e/w on Eric's Charm and all out on Arbor Supreme.

 

[brighton_girl87]

I have gone e/w on Arbor Supreme, Beat the Boys and Snowy Morning.

 

[sam86]

Dont Push It.

Was going to back this before I got it in the NSC sweepstake. Co-inky-dink? I don't think so. Fate!

 

[jezzer]

I know stats are there to be broken but gone through all the main ones, age, weight, won over 3miles+, won a class 1 or class a, not fallen more than twice ever, must have run in last 48 days, etc and came up with 15 possibles, narrowed that down to 7 using overall and current form, i.e eliminating donkeys who are regularly tailed off, getting a bit old, havent won for 2 yrs etc and the list is:

Dont Push it - small squeak prob wont stay
Comply or Die - prob wont win but good for a place
Niche Market - Value for me, 3rd to denman at newbury running on in nov, won Irish National last yr, 18-1, great e.w
Cloudy Lane - 6th and unseated rider last 2 yrs, 8lbs less though so small squeak
Cant Buy Time - Fell last yr but usually good got a squeak
Big Fella Thanks - 6th last yr having made 2 mistakes and was too young last yr but should be in first 5 this year fair chance
Hello Bud - 40-1 but won scottish national last yr so a great each way too.

 

[Don Quixote]

I have gone with Beat the boys 100/1.

 

[Hannibal smith]

Hannibal, you've done a preview for us the last couple of years breaking the race down due to statistics and trends, have you done one this year??

Yes crodo although its a bit of a rush job this year

The Grand National takes place once again on Saturday 10th April 2010. With 40 runners going to post it can look like a daunting prospect but there is plenty of scope for the removal of a vast quantity of the runners based on past stats for the race.

If anyone has followed this newsletter for the past few years, you are probably now expecting a read a diatribe of anti French musing. Sadly, Mon Mome’s win in the 2009 national was a bit of a trends buster. His win was the first French bred horse to win the Grand national in over 100 years. Unfortunately for us this means that cheap jokes about Agincourt, Vanessa Paradis and the Maginot line are a thing of the past as we can no loner strike a line through French bred horses. If truth be told, French breds have been much more sympathetically trained in recent years and anti-French bias can no longer be applied. Shame.

First things first then. Age. 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or above. Tricky Trickster, Made in Taipan, Backstage, Can’t buy time, Big Fella Thanks, Arbor Supreme, The Well fancied The Package, Piraya and Palypso De Creek can all be omitted on Age grounds. Stamina in horses increases with age and this is borne out in national results.

We can also remove several horses on Weight grounds. Not since RED RUM has a horse won carrying more than 11st 5lb and none of this years bunch look that special. Madison de Berlais, Mon Mome, Vic Venturi, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Don’t push it and Comply or Die all carry above the magic number.

At 4 miles 4 furlongs, the Grand National is the longest race on the jumps calendar. Usain Bolt won’t win the Marathon. Horses without form over 3m won’t win this. It’s basic common sense to remove any horses from this category who won’t stay the distance and don’t listen to anyone that says otherwise. Pablo Du Charmil, Ballyholland, Conna Castle, Maljimar, Cerium and King John’s Castle can all be omitted. The later did stay on for 2nd in the 2008 renewal and palpably shows he does stay the trip, His form, however, since return from lay off is a major cause for concern. (especially to me as I’ve backed him at 110-1)

This leaves us with 18 Niche Market, Cloudy Lane, Dream Alliance, Nozic, My Will, Beat The Boys, Priests Leap, Snowy Morning, State of Play, Character Building, Ellerslie George, Eric’s Charm, Ballyfitz, Ollie Magern, Irish Raptor, Hello Bud, Flintoff and Royal Rosa.

Eric’s Charm, Ollie Magern and Hello Bud have age against them (all 12 year olds and probably too old) although Hello Buds stable (Twiston Davis the Gold cup winning trainer) and spring form means it could run into a place. Nozic, and Cloudy Lane both carry over 11st which is a slight negative on the trends front. The former does not seem well in at the weights given his achievements and trainers (Paul Nicholls) abject record in this whilst Cloudy Lane has had better chances in this race than he will have this year.

On the less scientific front, I’ve never even heard of Ellerslie George. Flintoff would appear to be without a chance but I’m not being too caustic as his trainer Venitia Williams somehow trained Mon Mome to victory last year. Lastly, I can’t fancy Royal Rosa especially as its Sires name is Crystal Palace.

Previous course form is a positive and there are few who have good records at Aintree. I wouldn’t put anyone off My Will who was 3rd last year. His Trainers record though is nothing to write home about (Paul Nicholls) but 40-1 is certainly a value price if his Gold Cup run is forgotten. Snowy morning has been placed in 2008 and is weighted to run better than his 9th last year. Similarly, State of Play ran an excellent 4th last year and is no higher in the weights for it. His long absence from the track is all that puts me off tipping him for a place. On the negative side the efforts of Priests Leap to finish 14th last year was particularly ponderous and he didn’t look like a horse at home with the Aintree Fences.

This leaves us with 5. Niche Market, Dream Alliance, Beat The Boys, Character Building and Irish Raptor. Recent form for Dream Alliance, Beat The Boys and Character Building is unimpressive and all 3 can be passed over. Niche Market has done little wrong this year and his 3rd to Denman in the Hennessey is particularly eye catching. His weight of 11-4 is more than enough though and he may find one too good. That one I believe is Irish Raptor. With course winning form, an in form stable (Nigel Twiston Davis), the Gold Cup winning jockey on board (Paddy Brennan) and a light weight he is worth taking a chance on at 40-1

Prediction

1 : Irish Raptor
2 : Niche Market
3 : My Will
4 : Hello Bud

 

[Sheebo]

I'm on Tricky and BUD

 

[lichfield seagulls]

i've gone for; State of play ....
Don't push it......
Niche market.......
Conna castle........
All each way bets

 

[Janbha]

Is this a mis print ? Cant believe they would of let the horse run


36

50PP/05-0 CERIUM 9-10-05
Davy Russell Paul Murphy
A late replacement for stablemate Mr Pointment, and Cerium nearly missed his appointment with this year's race until Friday's withdrawal. Dismissed by many but finished fifth in 2009 despite having a FRACTURED SKULL Now in fine health.
Rating: 6/10 Odds: 50-1

 

[Scotty Mac]

big fella thanks solely because i feel compelled to bet on ruby. after that, my will, comply or die, irish raptor or the package

 

[Billy Seagull]

Been backing these since January and have this little lot:

Big Fella Thanks 20/1 - was taken with this at Newbury and since Walsh confirmed he'll ride the price has collapsed. 10/1 available now.
Character Building 43/1 - not run well this year but this has been his sole aim. Got Nina on board and she'll do ok. Will love the going.
Niche Market 33/1 - layed out for this, got his going, will be up with the pace and really like him now the going is quicker.
Erics Charm 100/1 ew - won't care for the quick going but in the form of his life.
Maljimar 40/1 - added this just now after Lads went 40s - will love the going, might not stay though.

Have backed a few non runners too but at the prices I've got on the ones that are running I'm ok with that.

 

[Kick Ass Minton]

Sad Ken 20,000/1

 

[SirDouglasLoft]

Dont Push It.

Was going to back this before I got it in the NSC sweepstake. Co-inky-dink? I don't think so. Fate!

Tony McCoy. Never won the national, risky!


I'm going Snowy Morning, Comply or Die and The Package.

 

[Stevie Boy]

ive gone
Dont Push It
Irish Raptor
My Will
Nozic
all each way,

 

[Gerbil]

Flintoffffffffff!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[sam86]

Tony McCoy. Never won the national, risky!


I'm going Snowy Morning, Comply or Die and The Package.

20-1 each way, first 5 places paid. He's come 3rd in the past 4 years (I think).
I'll stick with it.