The big 3 parties 3500 seats, UKIP 157...

[Pretty pink fairy]

UKIP sounds like a splendid name for a sleeping pill.

'take a one UKIP half an hour before bedtime, then wake up in the morning, refreshed and ready to vent your anger at the world.'

GRAND DELUSION PERSONIFIED , BITTER PILL TO SWALLOW I MUST ADMIT, BUT LETS' FACE IT WE'RE NOT ALL BLIND AS YOU, probably the best thing to happen in politics, a real wake up call
regards
DR

 

[lawros left foot]

As an aside, can Fuhrer Farage stand as an MP, if he is already an MEP?

 

[looney]

The question could be which party bottles out of the European experiment and dates a referendum to scoop up the UKIP votes?
Could be the tories if they run Cameron out.

As for winning seats it needs something like the greens got in Brighton, a perfect storm so to speak, wereas in Brighton you have a high concentration of hippies, disillusioned lefties and assorted other wankers to get lucas in. All you need is a Tory candidate snuffing it before the election or some localised scandal in a UKIP zone.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Which seats do they realistically have any chance in?

snow ball effect ?, who knows the sky's the limit as they say
regards
DR

 

[Eeyore]

Two or three is my guess.

60% of UKIP voters said up they also vote UKIP at the next election. Lots of votes, but as no PR, very, very few seats.

Who will the other 40% vote for? That will decode the election

In a first past the post system, they need a massive swing to translate their vote into seats. Even if 20% of the public voted UKIP at the next election, they could still struggle to win a seat.

In 1983 the new SDP/Liberal Alliance scored 25% of the vote and only won 12 additional seats. These being in places where they were already well placed.

UKIP's best bet is to put most of their resources in a small handful of constituencies. But they will still lose large numbers back to the mainstream as people will not be confident enough in their ability to win.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

the question could be which party bottles out of the european experiment and dates a referendum to scoop up the ukip votes?
Could be the tories if they run cameron out.

As for winning seats it needs something like the greens got in brighton, a perfect storm so to speak, wereas in brighton you have a high concentration of hippies, disillusioned lefties and assorted other wankers to get lucas in. All you need is a tory candidate snuffing it before the election or some localised scandal in a ukip zone.

top post looney
regards
DR

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

In a first past the post system, they need a massive swing to translate their vote into seats. Even if 20% of the public voted UKIP at the next election, they could still struggle to win a seat.

In 1983 the new SDP/Liberal Alliance scored 25% of the vote and only won 12 additional seats. These being in places where they were already well placed.

UKIP's best bet is to put most of their resources in a small handful of constituencies. But they will still lose large numbers back to the mainstream as people will not be confident enough in their ability to win.

HARK AT MYSTIC MEG, seems like there's plenty of people running scared , as i said before, let the voters do the talking and they have ............
regards
DR

 

[Eeyore]

HARK AT MYSTIC MEG, seems like there's plenty of people running scared , as i said before, let the voters do the talking and they have ............
regards
DR

No, I would rather have used a crystal ball, all that time in political studies could have been spent elsewhere.

 

[BadFish]

Its bizarre UKIP are getting the low socio economic vote yet are the most right wing of all the parties. Most of the UKIP protest vote know little about what they are about. Their NHS policy would scared 95% of the pop for a start..

They have done a great job of preying on people's fear. Works much better than asking them to think.

 

[pastafarian]

Despite all the hype UKIP are still tin-pot. Come next year we're be saying, What happened to UKIP?

I think you may have ejaculated a little too early.

These May votes concerning UKIP were always about the EU elections and not so much about the fact some(not all) local councils were having elections.

I think the message the electorate are sending to the major parties over Europe will be defined/or not as the case might be by the results we see from sunday night onwards in the EU section.

Its interesting you call them tinpot though,i have seen serious politicians from Labour Conservative and Liberal on the news saying how UKIP voter gain has been significant and questioning their own party policy of how they have dealt with UKIP and failed(with hindsight of course)

perhaps you can explain why the serious politicians from all parties are talking seriously about these failings to deal with the UKIP vote,with not only strategy but policies as well,(and we havent even had the results of the EU side of matters) if they are a tinpot organisation.

Surely if they are insignificant and tinpot they would just ignore them,you dont see the politicians from the main three getting in a tizzy or worrying about the "tinpot" Green vote do you.

 

[BadFish]

I think you may have ejaculated a little too early.

These May votes concerning UKIP were always about the EU elections and not so much about the fact some(not all) local councils were having elections.

I think the message the electorate are sending to the major parties over Europe will be defined/or not as the case might be by the results we see from sunday night onwards in the EU section.

Its interesting you call them tinpot though,i have seen serious politicians from Labour Conservative and Liberal on the news saying how UKIP voter gain has been significant and questioning their own party policy of how they have dealt with UKIP and failed(with hindsight of course)

perhaps you can explain why the serious politicians from all parties are talking seriously about these failings to deal with the UKIP vote,with not only strategy but policies as well,(and we havent even had the results of the EU side of matters) if they are a tinpot organisation.

Surely if they are insignificant and tinpot they would just ignore them,you dont see the politicians from the main three getting in a tizzy or worrying about the "tinpot" Green vote do you.

Perhaps it could be seen as their EU policy is not as tinpot as was thought before now. If the party prove to be tinpot is very dependent on what they do with these significant gains before and in the general election. I am guessing that the desired outcome for many UKIP voters would be that the main parties will take the discussion about Europe and immigration more seriously rather than allowing them too much actual power.

In reality these gains are about the a single policy more than a political party, and the other criticisms about UKIP still stand.

 

[dougdeep]

My worst nightmare is a Tory/UKIP coalition after the next election, goodbye NHS, goodbye social benefits, goodbye any restraint on the worst excesses of a right wing xenophobic government

You have no idea. Do you read the Daily Mail by any chance?

 

[pastafarian]

Perhaps it could be seen as their EU policy is not as tinpot as was thought before now. If the party prove to be tinpot is very dependent on what they do with these significant gains before and in the general election. I am guessing that the desired outcome for many UKIP voters would be that the main parties will take the discussion about Europe and immigration more seriously rather than allowing them too much actual power.

In reality these gains are about the a single policy more than a political party, and the other criticisms about UKIP still stand.

Not sure i understood any of that....are you playing poker and boozing mate?

this is what it is all about though and you have nailed it on the head.

"I am guessing that the desired outcome for many UKIP voters would be that the main parties will take the discussion about Europe and immigration more seriously rather than allowing them too much actual power."

For far too long the discussion(the adverse points) about immigration and Europe has been avoided by the main parties,The British people on the whole are a tolerant lot,but the politicians have basically been taking the piss,the sort of backlash we are seeing even on a small scale is inevitable.Take a look at Europe though with their far right groups gaining support....Front National,Jobbik,Golden Dawn,PVV and many more,these people are proper nuts,we have nothing like them in the UK with any sort of power or support.....so lets keep it that way.

Let democracy take the hit for the UK,the best outcome for everyone is a referendum.....proper free choice on the issue

 

[BadFish]

Not sure i understood any of that....are you playing poker and boozing mate?

this is what it is all about though and you have nailed it on the head.

"I am guessing that the desired outcome for many UKIP voters would be that the main parties will take the discussion about Europe and immigration more seriously rather than allowing them too much actual power."

For far too long the discussion(the adverse points) about immigration and Europe has been avoided by the main parties,The British people on the whole are a tolerant lot,but the politicians have basically been taking the piss,the sort of backlash we are seeing even on a small scale is inevitable.Take a look at Europe though with their far right groups gaining support....Front National,Jobbik,Golden Dawn,PVV and many more,these people are proper nuts,we have nothing like them in the UK with any sort of power or support.....so lets keep it that way.

Let democracy take the hit for the UK,the best outcome for everyone is a referendum.....proper free choice on the issue

Agreed.

I was just trying to say that it will be interesting to see what UKIP do with these gains and if they will be sustainable long term. My guess is that they will serve their purpose of kicking the main parties in the backside and jump starting the discussion and (hopefully) referendum and then fade into a historical footnote. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part!

Not drinking or playing poker. Writing school reports and hoping to god I am more coherent on them.

 

[East Preston Gull]

Its bizarre UKIP are getting the low socio economic vote yet are the most right wing of all the parties. Most of the UKIP protest vote know little about what they are about. Their NHS policy would scared 95% of the pop for a start..

Their NHS policy is at least honest. The tories and labour will continue the privatisation by stealth whilst the current national insurance payments we pay in this country make our so called free care plan the most expensive health insurance in the world.

 

[thisistips]

My worst nightmare is a Tory/UKIP coalition after the next election, goodbye NHS, goodbye social benefits, goodbye any restraint on the worst excesses of a right wing xenophobic government

Mine too. Plus goodbye BBC, goodbye human rights and a head rushed blind leap into being outsiders in Europe, based on prejudice not common sense. It'll be worse than under Thatcher. The Tories would have to moderate UKIP! We might even have the ignominy of seeing a newly independent Scotland able to divert outside investment jobs that we are currently able to attract, because we're stable, relatively business friendly and speak good English, to sites north of the border. US, Chinese, Japanese companies might like the new lack of labour protection that would occur, but you don't invest in plant and infrastructure with people that are outsiders.

 

[pastafarian]

goodbye human rights

please explain?

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Despite all the hype UKIP are still tin-pot. Come next year we're be saying, What happened to UKIP?

So we should put up with what we have, bollox. It's about time we had an alternative. Every party has to start somewhere, the bigger UKIP get, the better they will get.

The other parties don't care about you and they don't care for this country. They would rather sell out to the highest bidder and include you in that bargain, then they will leave you to pick up the mess whilst they **** off with their nice big fat pensions.

Politicians come and go, a bit like football managers. We have no choice but to live in the mess that they create and what a mess the three established parties have created over the last 15 years. Hope their time is ****ing up, people have had enough of their bullshit.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Two or three is my guess.

60% of UKIP voters said up they also vote UKIP at the next election. Lots of votes, but as no PR, very, very few seats.

Who will the other 40% vote for? That will decode the election

4/6 to win a single seat or more, was 5/6 yesterday.
Tories now favourites at 4/5 to get the most votes

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Mine too. Plus goodbye BBC, goodbye human rights and a head rushed blind leap into being outsiders in Europe, based on prejudice not common sense. It'll be worse than under Thatcher. The Tories would have to moderate UKIP! We might even have the ignominy of seeing a newly independent Scotland able to divert outside investment jobs that we are currently able to attract, because we're stable, relatively business friendly and speak good English, to sites north of the border. US, Chinese, Japanese companies might like the new lack of labour protection that would occur, but you don't invest in plant and infrastructure with people that are outsiders.

Based on prejudice, where are the manufacturing jobs in this country like we used to have years ago? Why are we not exporting more?. These are the questions we should all be asking. That should be the push and nothing else.

Our economy now exists on creating more and more service industry jobs, for example building more supermarkets to feed more and more people that come in to this country. Its a bullshit economy that goes absolutely nowhere. It just goes around in circles and nobody gets richer in the process only the people who own the supermarkets at the top, wages remain the same because generally they don't need to pay more than they have too and why should they when they now have a steady stream of cheap labour.