[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[vegster]

Well, I can't follow most of it but after talking about 'snowmeggedon' this afternoon and 'the best charts posted in the internet era' a - apparently - bad 'ECM' model run this evening and the samaritans are now monitoring the thread

Still, they're 100% sure that the snow will be here in 6 weeks time

Just like politics.... Always " Jam tomorrow "!

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The models have all gone tit s up the last 12 hours. All they show now is slight cold for the next 2 weeks, between 5-7 c by day and no snow. This is the trouble with these models showing ridiculous snow events. They are nothing more than weather porn. What's going on Papa ?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The models have all gone tit s up the last 12 hours. All they show now is slight cold for the next 2 weeks, between 5-7 c by day and no snow. This is the trouble with these models showing ridiculous snow events. They are nothing more than weather porn. What's going on Papa ?

It's all very uncertain at the moment. Tuesday still looks cold with snow potential, then the models are really struggling. We could still get an easterly, but that option isn't as likely as before. Some models put us in a slack col for a few days, and others reset the pattern and the process starts over. Even the less promising output has cold air later.

 

[Weststander]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], what’s your take on potential snow/very low temps for Sussex, for the 27th Jan onwards, please?

 

[LamieRobertson]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], what’s your take on potential snow/very low temps for Sussex, for the 27th Jan onwards, please?

June should be clear of snow

 

[Weststander]

June should be clear of snow

If she uses Head & Shoulders, yes.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], what’s your take on potential snow/very low temps for Sussex, for the 27th Jan onwards, please?

Sorry, been away from my computer today.

The problem is there is little agreement on where things go from Tuesday.

The short GFS ensemble for 2m temperture shows the available range



After which it's all up for grabs.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The forecast is now for mild conditions and atlantic westerlies by the end of the end as opposed to all the models of extreme cold and easterlies we had for a couple of weeks after the warming event. It ain't happening

 

[Taybha]

I agree , sledge prices at B&Q have remained the same for the last week or so , if it is going to snow these rocket up to a Barberistic £25 from £15 .

 

[Giraffe]

It certainly doesn't look too good but I'm not ruling it out just yet. There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty over what will happen this week. Could still something Wednesday or later in the week?

 

[LamieRobertson]

First ground frost of the Winter in BN43

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

First Frost of the winter in Worthing. - 3 c 27 f

That was in fact winter 18/19

 

[martin tyler]

Cold out this morning and looks like a couple more frosts this week but doesn’t seem a lot else. Models showing it maybe cold late January early February at moment but I don’t hold much hope for any decent snow just the odd crisp frost and More likely the horrible cold rain when it’s 3/4 degrees. We have 5/6 weeks left for any decent prolonged cold spell before we can put it to bed for another year.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I would say generally once you get to the second half of febraury down here the game is up. I know we had some late cold last year but that was very unusual. So with no cold on the horizon until early feb, earliest, I would think we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for any real cold or snow left now

 

[Giraffe]

I would say generally once you get to the second half of febraury down here the game is up. I know we had some late cold last year but that was very unusual. So with no cold on the horizon until early feb, earliest, I would think we have a 2-3 week window of opportunity for any real cold or snow left now

For proper lingering snow you're probably right but could still have a 2-3 day snow fest any time up to the end of April really.

 

[Fungus]

First ground frost of the Winter in BN43

First Frost of the winter in Worthing. - 3 c 27 f

That was in fact winter 18/19

Strangely, we had our first frost down here in Truro, way back at the end of October.

That's enough for us this winter, please.

 

[Bozza]

Strangely, we had our first frost down here in Truro, way back at the end of October.

That's enough for us this winter, please.

We've had three or four in my part of Worthing, although if you weren't out early you would have missed those before today.

 

[LamieRobertson]

We've had three or four in my part of Worthing, although if you weren't out early you would have missed those before today.

We'd had an air frost in BN43 ..but this is the first ground frost

 

[Peteinblack]

Sorry, been away from my computer today.

The problem is there is little agreement on where things go from Tuesday.

The short GFS ensemble for 2m temperture shows the available range

View attachment 103922

After which it's all up for grabs.

Last night's BBC Countryside weather forecast referred to the previously predicted Easterlies, and said they were 'now on hold' as Atlantic Lows and Westerlies return at the end of this week, after a chilly (but not especially cold) few days.

As someone whose favourite winter weather scenario is a strong, stationary, anti-cyclone over Scandinavia feeding in easterly winds with troughs moving westwards (and giving heavy snow showers or more persistent snow), I am very disappointed that this is looking increasingly unlikely.

Yeah, I know I'm weird

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The forecast is now for mild conditions and atlantic westerlies by the end of the end as opposed to all the models of extreme cold and easterlies we had for a couple of weeks after the warming event. It ain't happening

Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Your crowing over your incredible forecasting skills is pathetic. And you're missing the whole point of the thread - but you know that of course.