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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



Cheshire Cat

The most curious thing..
Express scaremongering yet again!!!!

Won't they ever learn.:moo:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weath...eavy-snow-cold-UK-weather-long-range-forecast

SNOW for 120 days: Shock UK winter weather forecast predicts COLDEST snap in five years

BRITAIN is just weeks away from a major Arctic freeze as alarms are sounded to brace for the coldest and snowiest winter for years.

By NATHAN RAO
PUBLISHED: 01:31, Thu, Oct 27, 2016 | UPDATED: 07:41, Thu, Oct 27, 2016





Forecasters have reiterated weather warnings of a four-month barrage of “potent” and “memorable” blasts of severe weather and snow set to kick in next month.
Swathes of the UK face the first significant and potentially disruptive snowfall for five years with savage blizzards threatening weeks of chaos.
In the past few days a change in air circulation around the North Pole has pushed forecasters to reassess outlooks for this winter with severe cold now looking increasingly likely.
Pressure between the Arctic region and northern Europe has weakened driving a switch from a so-called positive to a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO).
During it’s negative phase cold Arctic air tends to sink further south with he phenomenon linked to colder winters in the UK.
Experts say the cold is likely to set in at the start of next month with thermometers plunging further through December and January.
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GETTY
Heavy snow has been forecast this winter 2016It has raised fears Britain could be facing a crisis similar to the winter of 2010/11 which saw heavy snow cripple transport networks and close airports.
The Local Government Association (LGA) said councils are monitoring weather reports and are ready with a stockpile of grit to keep the roads moving.
Environment spokesman Martin Tett said: "Councils are fully prepared to protect residents and minimise disruption with temperatures set to drop.
“They are constantly monitoring up-to-the-minute weather reports to make sure they can stay one step ahead of the weather.
“We are well prepared for the cold with salt stockpiled and a fleet of state-of-the-art gritters ready to be deployed.”
Snow-winter-weather-UK-696863.jpg
GETTY
Winter 2016 is set to bring potentially disruptive snowfallWeather models show Scotland is at risk of the first snowfall towards the end of this month as temperatures plunge around northern Britain.
Although the rest of the country is not likely to be affected experts say the first “significant” and widespread snowfall of could arrive in November.
Exacta Weather’s James Madden said milder interludes through the end of autumn and into winter should not lull people into a false sense of security.
He said: “The Arctic (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will both start to trend more towards negative territory from this point forward and this will also begin to build the right conditions for a colder than average winter this year.
winter-2016-snow-696872.jpg
GETTY
Winter 2016: Pressure between Arctic and northern Europe has weakened causing a drop in temperature“This does not dispel some very mild weather at times during the end of October and throughout the upcoming winter as the negative NAO may not be consistently negative throughout the remainder of autumn and the upcoming winter period.
“Despite this there will be phases of strongly negative plunges particularly from December to January.
“This will result in some very potent or potentially memorable periods of cold and snow within this period for many parts of the country, and despite some swings to milder weather at times, the colder periods of weather should be taken seriously and prepared for sooner rather than later, so that people aren't taken by surprise when these wintry blasts do occur.”
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The bitter forecast comes amid predictions subtle changes in atmospheric pressure will open the floodgates to freezing air from the Arctic through the season.
Strong negative Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations are forecast to play a major role in influencing Britain’s weather this winter.
In its negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) sees atmospheric pressure drop around Bermuda and rise over Iceland.
This creates a reduced pressure gradient between the two regions and a weakening of the prevailing westerly winds which usually steer mild, stormy conditions into the UK from the Atlantic.
During this negative phase, northern Europe, including Britain, is open to winds coming from further north and winter is usually colder as a result.
The same is true of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which in its cold negative phase weakens westerly winds high up allowing cold air from the Polar region to sink into northern Europe.
snow-winter-2016-weather-forecast-696875.jpg
GETTY
Snow will hit Britain this winter 2016, long-range forecasters are warningCurrent forecasts show the AO has now switched into a negative phase with the NAO expected to follow suit in the coming months.
The WeatherOutlook is predicting a 13 to 18 per cent chance of a White Christmas with just over 70 days to go.
A spokesman said: “Some seasonal forecasting models suggesting a 'front loaded winter' and if this is the outcome the highest chance of widespread cold and snow may occur between late November and the first half of January, possibly coinciding with Christmas.”
Some forecasters however are still uncertain as to the outlook this winter. According the Met Office the outlook for mid November remains uncertain.
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On the Met Office website the mid-November forecast said: "At first, indications suggest northerly or north-westerly winds to predominate over the UK, leading to lower than average temperatures for many and a widespread risk of frosts.
"The expectation is also for windier more showery conditions in the north, with snow over some higher ground, and drier more settled weather in the south.
"Towards the end of the period confidence continues to be low, with the more likely scenario looking to be a continuation of the mainly, drier, settled weather, although there remains a possibility of a change towards milder more unsettled conditions."

 










LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,434
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Gut feeling and the law of averages tells me there is a strong chance of a colder winter....but how cold? it hasn't got to do much to be colder that recent years..but I'm going for some wet and windy stuff first....since July it seems to have been relatively dry down south and these things have a habit of balancing out
 






seagurn

Well-known member
Feb 19, 2007
1,971
County town
Heard somewhere that it could turn cold from midweek next week with sub zero overnight temps. Be nice for bonfire night if true.
I was told it was going to be 22 degrees for bonfire .daytime temps that is jevs you wont be wearing smugglers that night . Oh its the 12th in Lewes isnt it with free parking in the high st?
 


jevs

Well-known member
Mar 24, 2004
4,375
Preston Rock Garden
I was told it was going to be 22 degrees for bonfire .daytime temps that is jevs you wont be wearing smugglers that night . Oh its the 12th in Lewes isnt it with free parking in the high st?

22 degrees.....jesus!!!! Im in a drumming band so have to wear top hat, stripey jumper and a heavy tailcoat. Looking forward to the 12th lol
 




Peteinblack

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jun 3, 2004
4,146
Bath, Somerset.
Every year they come out with this utter bollocks. I WANT SNOW [emoji24][emoji24][emoji24][emoji24][emoji24]

Just as every March, the Excess forecasts 'a Barbecue summer', whereupon we have a cool, wet and windy June, July and August.
 










LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
48,434
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Hmmm..When does Winter start in your book?.. IMHO December ..we are currently in late Autumn...gut feeling and law of averages says its about time we had a coldish Winter...but some of us need to earn this month and snow would kill my work..so hold off with the white stuff a bit longer :moo:
 


Green Cross Code Man

Wunt be druv
Mar 30, 2006
20,756
Eastbourne
Hmmm..When does Winter start in your book?.. IMHO December ..we are currently in late Autumn...gut feeling and law of averages says its about time we had a coldish Winter...but some of us need to earn this month and snow would kill my work..so hold off with the white stuff a bit longer :moo:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learnin...r-works/seasons/winter/when-does-winter-start

Personally, I'd go for astronomical as December, well early December, is often quiet and cool rather than cold. Most commonly, we get our worst winter weather from late December through February.
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,366
Worthing


seagurn

Well-known member
Feb 19, 2007
1,971
County town
[Looks like i was getting my info from exacta weather jevs and its going to be cold and dry so have a good one .
oh shit its on the 12th now isnt it.
QUOTE=jevs;7643619]22 degrees.....jesus!!!! Im in a drumming band so have to wear top hat, stripey jumper and a heavy tailcoat. Looking forward to the 12th lol[/QUOTE]
 


Bigtomfu

New member
Jul 25, 2003
4,416
Harrow
The Met Office medium range climatic model is showing a 30% chance of a much colder than average winter spell, which is unusually confident at this range.

The immediate outlook is chilly but no snow here, but the blocked signal remains.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=294&y=170&run=12&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

With a weak PV looking more and more likely are there any analogous years we can use as a comparable? Eg was 2011 the result of a weak PV?
 


Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,366
Worthing
With a weak PV looking more and more likely are there any analogous years we can use as a comparable? Eg was 2011 the result of a weak PV?

I'm not sure if pattern matching is of much use here. What is true is that we do have a disrupted Polar Vortex, which is a good thing is we want cold outbreaks in the winter here.


What we need is this disruption to continue and we could see snow this winter.

The latest Metoffice outlook in more detail is here:

Temperature - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie...po/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-ndj-v2.pdf

Precipitation - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binarie.../pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-ndj-v2.pdf
 




Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,366
Worthing
And the wording that accompanied it:

while the polar vortex has now become established, numerical prediction systems indicate a high chance that it will be disrupted rather than strengthen as it usually does at this time of year. Such a disruption increases the chance of surface weather patterns that block the passage of the usual Atlantic weather systems that affect the UK in winter. Consistent with these factors, the Met Office prediction system, along with systems from other forecast centres around the world, suggests a higher-than-normal chance of above-average sea-levelpressure developing to the northwest or north of the UK. Agreement between prediction systems is good, and their output suggests a reduction in the normal westerly flow across the UK from the Atlantic, with a greater frequency of northerly or easterly winds. Such a pattern would bring cold air to the UK. As a result, our outlook suggests an increased risk of below average temperatures during the period (Fig. T2). This is associated with an increased risk of cold weather impacts in this early part of the winter
 




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