[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Uncle Spielberg]

Although I agree that there is no weather yet that could be described as 'bitterly cold', there doesnt seem to be any weather past Wednesday that could be described as 8c either.

There is. It is forecast here as 7 c lowest this week by day

 

[BigGully]

There is. It is forecast here as 7 c lowest this week by day

Where does it say that, what are you looking at, I am looking at the models and it isnt saying that, even if you factor any bias glitches etc. you have to be using a big leap of faith to get to your 8c as this weeks daily average and a day low of 7c..

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I guess it is climate change that the new bitterly cold in mid January is now 8 c by day and 4 c by night. I remember 80s January's when it was - 2 c by day and - 10 c by night

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Where does it say that, what are you looking at, I am looking at the models and it isnt saying that, even if you factor any bias glitches etc. you have to be using a big leap of faith to get to your 8c as this weeks daily average and a day low of 7c..

Some of the BBC forecasts have shown 8c in the South for some days

 

[BigGully]

Some of the BBC forecasts have shown 8c in the South for some days

Ok ok, but from Wednesday onwards ??

I have looked at the gfs and the met office outlook for this region and I cannot see 8c past Wednesday.

I am willing to learn here, if you look at the information out there and each are saying 6c or 5c and although I wholly agree that this is nothing more than perhaps 'chilly' at what point do you then conclude it will all be 8c with a daily minimum of 7c.

 

[Yoda]

I am bewildered. 8 c this week is being described by the BBC as bitterly cold. Average temp is 6 to 7 c

Selective hearing me thinks. I heard "Feeling bitterly cold in the wind."

 

[BigGully]

Selective hearing me thinks. I heard "Feeling bitterly cold in the wind."

Even so ..................................................

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Ok ok, but from Wednesday onwards ??

I have looked at the gfs and the met office outlook for this region and I cannot see 8c past Wednesday.

I am willing to learn here, if you look at the information out there and each are saying 6c or 5c and although I wholly agree that this is nothing more than perhaps 'chilly' at what point do you then conclude it will all be 8c with a daily minimum of 7c.

I'm not saying the forecast temps are correct, but they are showing higher than GFS is showing as raw data

for Worthing Max / Min

BBC 5 day

Monday 9c 4c
Tuesday 7c 3c
Wednesday 8c 4c
Thursday 6c 0c
Friday 5c 0c


Accuweather

Monday 9c 5c
Tuesday 8c 4c
Wednesday 8c 3c
Thursday 7c 2c
Friday 6c 1c

Weatheronline

Monday 10c 6c
Tuesday 8c 4c
Wednesday 8c 5c
Thursday 6c 3c
Friday 7c 1c

 

[Giraffe]

As an amateur it really does not appear to be cold enough to snow, it is as simple as that.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

As an amateur it really does not appear to be cold enough to snow, it is as simple as that.

I would concur with this.

 

[BigGully]

I'm not saying the forecast temps are correct, but they are showing higher than GFS is showing as raw data

for Worthing Max / Min

BBC 5 day

Monday 9c 4c
Tuesday 7c 3c
Wednesday 8c 4c
Thursday 6c 0c
Friday 5c 0c


Accuweather

Monday 9c 5c
Tuesday 8c 4c
Wednesday 8c 3c
Thursday 7c 2c
Friday 6c 1c

Weatheronline

Monday 10c 6c
Tuesday 8c 4c
Wednesday 8c 5c
Thursday 6c 3c
Friday 7c 1c

As our resident meteorologist I respect and enjoy your say on things.

My point was more that US highlighted the 8c, surely knowing that that soon after Wednesday there was a likely cooler trend, nothing particularly cold but also not 8c that was mentioned, you too mentioned the BBC and 8c, although this accurate up until Wednesday after that not so and other respected sites decrease the daytime max's even more.

It seems that US and even you perhaps are factoring your own disappointment at lack of cold with highlighting a temperature that for me doesnt represent this weeks weather, we have enough data to disappoint ourselves without hanging our hat on making forecasting temperatures of say 6c into 8c and so on.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

As our resident meteorologist I respect and enjoy your say on things.

My point was more that US highlighted the 8c, surely knowing that that soon after Wednesday there was a likely cooler trend, nothing particularly cold but also not 8c that was mentioned, you too mentioned the BBC and 8c, although this accurate up until Wednesday after that not so and other respected sites decrease the daytime max's even more.

It seems that US and even you perhaps are factoring your own disappointment at lack of cold with highlighting a temperature that for me doesnt represent this weeks weather, we have enough data to disappoint ourselves without hanging our hat on making forecasting temperatures of say 6c into 8c and so on.

The medium term outlook is all over the place in the models - so there is still hope. What I think most people nationally would most like is a period of dry, sunny and crisp days - even down here, where we've been spared the worst of the recent rainfall, the ground is pretty water-logged and we need some time for it to dry out a bit.

And yes, US tends to post inflammatory comments like this, it's his style. Sometimes he turns out to be sort of correct, other times, he doesn't.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The medium term outlook is all over the place in the models - so there is still hope. What I think most people nationally would most like is a period of dry, sunny and crisp days - even down here, where we've been spared the worst of the recent rainfall, the ground is pretty water-logged and we need some time for it to dry out a bit.

And yes, US tends to post inflammatory comments like this, it's his style. Sometimes he turns out to be sort of correct, other times, he doesn't.

I'm certainly one of those. I'm SO fed up with this warm, wet, windy NONSENSE. I've done two runs since November that haven't been in a gale, I've picked up our recycling more times than I can count and my son's football team's pitch is permanently waterlogged.

I'm a lurker on this thread, leaving the snow forecast to those who know what they're talking about, but I'm normally a fan of a bit of the white stuff, as are the kids. Howeever, I really don't want it now. Just the cold, crisp sunny days I remember. I miss the sun and any sort of FLUMPING, from a selfish point of view, is likely to set back my own fitness and mean the team probably won't play for months.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I'm certainly one of those. I'm SO fed up with this warm, wet, windy NONSENSE. I've done two runs since November that haven't been in a gale, I've picked up our recycling more times than I can count and my son's football team's pitch is permanently waterlogged.

I'm a lurker on this thread, leaving the snow forecast to those who know what they're talking about, but I'm normally a fan of a bit of the white stuff, as are the kids. Howeever, I really don't want it now. Just the cold, crisp sunny days I remember. I miss the sun and any sort of FLUMPING, from a selfish point of view, is likely to set back my own fitness and mean the team probably won't play for months.

After this week, the most likely progression would be to develop a High Pressure close to or over the UK. the chart below is only the GFS, and shows the pressure across all ensemble members. Clearly SOME don't go for high pressure, but most do. The other main models (ECM, UKMO) support the high pressure outcome in the main.

 

[dazzer6666]

Actually a bit of ground frost this morning......still doesn't feel very cold though.

 

[Peteinblack]

After this week, the most likely progression would be to develop a High Pressure close to or over the UK. the chart below is only the GFS, and shows the pressure across all ensemble members. Clearly SOME don't go for high pressure, but most do. The other main models (ECM, UKMO) support the high pressure outcome in the main.

So the best hope for any snow is for an anticyclone (if it does develop over the UK) to drift out to Scandinavia, and become rooted there (while intensifying), so that a cold easterly flow can feed over us on its southern flank.

We won't get much, if any, snow from the predicted northerlies, because by the time they reach southern England, they've usually warmed up slightly (even though still chilly), and also dried out too, in most cases.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So the best hope for any snow is for an anticyclone (if it does develop over the UK) to drift out to Scandinavia, and become rooted there (while intensifying), so that a cold easterly flow can feed over us on its southern flank.

We won't get much, if any, snow from the predicted northerlies, because by the time they reach southern England, they've usually warmed up slightly (even though still chilly), and also dried out too, in most cases.

Yes. Look at this morning's UKMO for a good example

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

7 c today 8 c tomorrow and then 6 c for 3 days, mild westerlies will arrive by Sunday and back to 12 c

 

[martin tyler]

In the countryside was -1 last night and I've de-iced my car for the 1st time this winter. 2 hours later mind it is now 3 degrees and rising.

 

[Flex Your Head]

7 c today 8 c tomorrow and then 6 c for 3 days, mild westerlies will arrive by Sunday and back to 12 c

You're clearly not reading the charts or looking at met data, so do your figures come from an app? If so, which one?
The BBC show a max of 4 on Sunday, and no higher than 6 over the next 10 days. Where on earth do you get 12 from?