[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Midfield Minton]

I left for work this morning at 4:40am and there where some massive snow flacks falling mixed with hail in the Lewes road area but only lasted about 5 minutes

 

[cardboard]

So are we getting snow on / after Saturday or not? If so, will it be serious flumpage?

 

[Surf's Up]

What's a snow flack, does it contain shrapnel?

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

I'm expecting snow next Friday afternoon evening..

 

[Midfield Minton]

Sorry flakes

 

[carteater]

Coldest spell since 2013 across the uk potentially according to the bbc starting at the weekend.

 

[Max Paper]

Papa? Give us good news!

 

[Weststander]

Two meterological websites I've checked show ZERO snow forecast for the Brighton-Lewes-Burgess Hill part of Sussex for the forseeable future, with the coldest daytime max in any day in that entire period +4C.

Papa Lazarou - what's your take on this at the moment, please?

 

[carteater]

The most recent GFS looks promising.

 

[carteater]

The most recent GFS looks promising.

no actually it doesn't heavy rain and 7 degrees by tuesday

but the rest of the UK is really cold and snowy

 

[nick]

How snowy and when roughly? Are the Midlands in for anything decent?

 

[Ernest]

Looks a bit parkey for the weekend but no snow just cold

 

[carteater]

no actually it doesn't heavy rain and 7 degrees by tuesday

but the rest of the UK is really cold and snowy

But it has an interesting outlook for friday 23rd with easterly winds and widespread snow coming from the east, I'm hopeful

Lasting all day and into saturday

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Looking good next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30824978

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The most recent GFS looks promising.

The 18z GFS is very nice ;-)

 

[carteater]

The 18z GFS is very nice ;-)

I'll admit, Tuesday and Wednesday startled me a bit, but Friday 23rd through to Sunday 25th is very nice indeed .

 

[Barham's tash]

Looking good next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/30824978

Seems to me that the Beeb only pin their hat on marginal events when the confidence levels from the model outputs converge. Looking forward to seeing how this one pans out. Bring it.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Seems to me that the Beeb only pin their hat on marginal events when the confidence levels from the model outputs converge. Looking forward to seeing how this one pans out. Bring it.

I've had a chance to peruse the latest model output from this morning.

There is certainly a good chance we'll see snow in the next ten days or so. However there is also a possibility that we will get cold rain as there just isn't enough cold air in the right places when the precipitation arrives (Europe isn't particularly cold, so any continental flow won't be the help it usually is).

The latest GFS ensemble for Sussex shows lots of potential.



With low temperatures forecast and reasonable snow chances. The period 21-22nd has the highest cumulative likelihood with 35-45%. However until we get closer these are really only a guide.

Closer view of snow percentages



I've flicked through the ensemble members and most give a favourable setup at some point, but they don't all agree on the specific timing, so as long as the cold spell remains we should see these forecast percentages increase as closer agreement is reached.

More output is needed ;-)

 

[Last Summer]

A tad chilly in Burgess Hill today according to Netweather!

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Please don't let the Ipswich match be snowed off