[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[bravohotelalpha]

Mrs Narly101 has decided that the Daily Express is right. Arctic conditions because it took her all of 10 minutes to de-ice her car this morning.

Daft bint.

Daft bint indeed - she should have got you to do it for her ...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The computer models are finally showing some interesting developments, with the polar vortex due to fragment somewhat into early December and some possible High pressure development to our East. Nothing's certain yet, but it does show that the synoptic outlook is VERY different to last winter, which can only bode well for something wintry through the rest of the winter. If anything significant appears I'll report it on here.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

for example the later GFS shows some runs that would produce snow for the Sussex coast

 

[LamieRobertson]

Thank god for decent proper winter weather today. Less than ten degrees and dry. Almost Perfect but could do with a few degrees colder .

Yes it was the first time (this year) i've felt as if i was working on a garden in November...it felt normal!

 

[Barrel of Fun]

Freezing days mean I have to scrape the outside and inside of my moisture leaking car, but at least one snow day would be welcome as I would still be paid - apologies to the self-employed unable to work.

 

[chucky1973]

for example the later GFS shows some runs that would produce snow for the Sussex coast

It looks like a drawing done by my 5 year old, but I take your word for it that it looks positive!!

 

[Plake]

I love you Papa Lazarou.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Freezing days mean I have to scrape the outside and inside of my moisture leaking car, but at least one snow day would be welcome as I would still be paid - apologies to the self-employed unable to work.

lol...even i would welcome some..its just if it hangs around that stuffs my work

 

[Thunder Bolt]

No indication of temperatures dropping below 5 degrees for at least the next 14 days.

Warm, wet, boring.

It was exactly 0c at 7.30 this evening when I scraped the windscreen of the car to go out.

 

[driller]

for example the later GFS shows some runs that would produce snow for the Sussex coast

I do not really know how to interpret that.
Does it mean snow around 5 December.

 

[vegster]

I made it through last night.... just, thank God for the Big Thaw this morning.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I do not really know how to interpret that.
Does it mean snow around 5 December.

Nope - it means that in the ensemble of 20 variations of the GFS run (which ran at Noon yesterday) around Dec 2nd, 5% (1) of those showed conditions that would bring snow here, and later on (7-10/12) this rises to 10% (2) at times. It's more useful for showing trends in the output and to see where there is agreement (and therefore confidence) in a particular outcome.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

Too distant to show such a dramatic overnight change

 

[Flex Your Head]

Nope - it means that in the ensemble of 20 variations of the GFS run (which ran at Noon yesterday) around Dec 2nd, 5% (1) of those showed conditions that would bring snow here, and later on (7-10/12) this rises to 10% (2) at times. It's more useful for showing trends in the output and to see where there is agreement (and therefore confidence) in a particular outcome.

I've been looking at the Met Office long range forecast with disappointment recently, but there is a subtle change in today's from yesterday's:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Monday 8 Dec 2014:

Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with strong winds in northwest Britain, are likely to move southeastwards across the UK this weekend. Clearer conditions should follow, although a few showers are possible in the north and west. Ahead of this rain it should be largely dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. Thereafter northwestern parts are likely to be often unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a risk that southern Britain could be affected by some unsettled weather but it should be largely fine in-between with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures may become below average in the south and east later. The week after next conditions may turn more generally unsettled.

They haven't updated the longer range bit though, so it's still a bit underwhelming.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 23 Dec 2014:
There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I've been looking at the Met Office long range forecast with disappointment recently, but there is a subtle change in today's from yesterday's:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Nov 2014 to Monday 8 Dec 2014:

Outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with strong winds in northwest Britain, are likely to move southeastwards across the UK this weekend. Clearer conditions should follow, although a few showers are possible in the north and west. Ahead of this rain it should be largely dry but rather cloudy. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average and overnight fog patches are possible. Thereafter northwestern parts are likely to be often unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. There is also a risk that southern Britain could be affected by some unsettled weather but it should be largely fine in-between with a risk of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures may become below average in the south and east later. The week after next conditions may turn more generally unsettled.

They haven't updated the longer range bit though, so it's still a bit underwhelming.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 9 Dec 2014 to Tuesday 23 Dec 2014:
There is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period. However, the most likely scenario is for a continuation of unsettled and, at times, windy weather, especially in western parts of the UK, with eastern parts seeing the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around, or a little above, average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning frost and fog in places - this will be more likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground.

Nothing too exciting there. All the 1st part is showing is surface cold under an Anticyclone.

The bulk of the models do go for a settled quiet spell for a while (at least after the next 2 days or so).

 

[Taybha]

Freezing days mean I have to scrape the outside and inside of my moisture leaking car, but at least one snow day would be welcome as I would still be paid - apologies to the self-employed unable to work.

Buy a cheapo ready to go BBQ , the ones that cost around £2 in supermarkets , peel cardboard lid off then place in boot of car , very good for helping to disperse internal car moisture , oh do not light said BBQ , this cures the moisture but will turn the car into a fireball after approx 32 minutes .

 

[Easy 10]

I never understand this car-scraping malarky. I just pour some some slightly warm/tepid water on the windows from the kettle and voila. They're all cleared in a matter of seconds. OBVIOUSLY don't using boiling water, unless you have time to hang around for Autoglass to turn up.

Anyway. On with the forcasts.

 

[Grombleton]

I never understand this car-scraping malarky. I just pour some some slightly warm/tepid water on the windows from the kettle and voila. They're all cleared in a matter of seconds. OBVIOUSLY don't using boiling water, unless you have time to hang around for Autoglass to turn up.

Anyway. On with the forcasts.

That's fine for the outside, but my car has a habit of getting crazy levels of condensation on the inside. complete pain in the arse to wipe that down each day.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

That's fine for the outside, but my car has a habit of getting crazy levels of condensation on the inside. complete pain in the arse to wipe that down each day.

I quite enjoy letting the fan clear the MIST and then try and drive looking through the patch that has cleared.

Sure, you'll hit the occassional cat or person, but that's part of the fun.

 

[Hillian1]

Buy a cheapo ready to go BBQ , the ones that cost around £2 in supermarkets , peel cardboard lid off then place in boot of car , very good for helping to disperse internal car moisture , oh do not light said BBQ , this cures the moisture but will turn the car into a fireball after approx 32 minutes .

I'm going to try this.