[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

This morning's GFS ensemble - surface temps.

A move in the right direction
View attachment 50042

 

[Hyperion]

This morning's GFS ensemble - surface temps.

A move in the right direction
View attachment 50042

Your attachment does not seem to work. Are we expecting snow soon then?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

What does that mean in rich dummy terms?

What it means is that there is still quite a lot of uncertainty, but there are definitely signs that we may get some sort of blocking high pressure over or near Scandinavia, which could produce cold Easterly winds over Southern England and bring with them the chance of snow.

It's by no means certain, as the scatter on the charts shows, and Easterly winds are notoriously hard to get, and can easily be removed from the model outlook.

However, this morning's chart still shows it, so we're not going to give up yet.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

I posted it as a picture. Bloody NSC.

Here's a link to the latest
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=297&y=178&run=0&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

[supaseagull]

Does anyone think that our seasons are changing. Thinking back to last year and how cold the weather was up until June. A decent summer from late June to October and then the stormy weather which we've had which always used used to be most common between October and November is moving more regularly to late November to January.

 

[Leighgull]

Cool. Half the country is underwater and now we go arctic. UK is going to be a giant ice rink! We can all skate to work.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Hopefully this will work.

View attachment 50043

 

[Fungus]

What it means is that there is still quite a lot of uncertainty, but there are definitely signs that we may get some sort of blocking high pressure over or near Scandinavia, which could produce cold Easterly winds over Southern England and bring with them the chance of snow.

It's by no means certain, as the scatter on the charts shows, and Easterly winds are notoriously hard to get, and can easily be removed from the model outlook.

However, this morning's chart still shows it, so we're not going to give up yet.

Any time-scales for this? I can't see the graphics.

 

[Giraffe]

Any time-scales for this? I can't see the graphics.

Temparature starts to dip from the 14th, coldest at around the 17th-20th. All still vague though as too far away.

 

[Fungus]

Temparature starts to dip from the 14th, coldest at around the 17th-20th. All still vague though as too far away.

Cheers, as long as it's not before the 14th!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

This shows the 850hpa temp, rainfall and snow chance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=295&y=178

This shows the temp at 2m, rainfall and snow chance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=302&y=179&run=0&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Both for Sussex coast.

 

[Braders]

My heart leaps out of my chest every time I see this thread

 

[chucky1973]

This shows the 850hpa temp, rainfall and snow chance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=295&y=178

This shows the temp at 2m, rainfall and snow chance.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=302&y=179&run=0&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

Both for Sussex coast.

so around the 16th and 17th, about a 30-35% chance of some flumpage?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

so around the 16th and 17th, about a 30-35% chance of some flumpage?

Yes, based upon the current output (6Z 8/1/14) run. There's still a lot of uncertainty. These scenarios rarely strike a middle path, so soon we'll see the models clarify which way they're going to go... cold easterly or milder.

 

[Hillian1]

so soon we'll see the models clarify which way they're going to go... cold easterly or milder.

Firmly in Team Milder over here.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Firmly in Team Milder over here.

Yes, I am aware

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Firmly in Team Milder over here.

The Met Office are on your side [MENTION=16843]Hillian1[/MENTION]

UK Outlook for Monday 13 Jan 2014 to Wednesday 22 Jan 2014:

Although showers and longer spells of rain will continue to affect the UK, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as those of recent weeks. At first, the strongest winds and heaviest rain are most likely in the west of the UK, then perhaps in the south and southwest, whilst the east will hang on to the driest weather. It will become colder, especially in the north where there is an increasing risk of snow, mainly over hills, with nearer normal temperatures at times in the south, and an increasing risk of frost, ice and fog. Later in the month changeable conditions are likely to continue, especially in the northwest, with the best of the drier weather in the east.

Updated: 1156 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jan 2014 to Thursday 6 Feb 2014:

Whilst current indications point towards changeable conditions persisting late in January, they are not expected to be as stormy as the start of the month. This would mean outbreaks of rain mainly affecting northwestern parts of the UK, spreading further southeast at times but tending to weaken. The best of the dry and brighter weather should remain in the southeast. Some periods of colder weather are likely, particularly inbetween weather systems, but overall temperatures may well remain near normal.

Updated: 1159 on Wed 8 Jan 2014

 

[LU7 RED]

These Polar winds coming down across America. What would the temperature be here if we had the same strength polar winds? Probably still wouldn't get below freezing would it? Warming sea and all that.

America is bonkers for weather..

 

[Grombleton]

The Met Office are on your side [MENTION=16843]Hillian1[/MENTION]

When they say 'near normal', what do they define as normal? I always consider single figures to be normal for this time of year, but we are hovering around 10-12c a fair bit (not factoring in wind chill).

 

[Hillian1]

The Met Office are on your side [MENTION=16843]Hillian1[/MENTION]