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[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]



S

saltash seagull

New member
Mar 1, 2004
4,480
cornwall
what is the weather actually like in brighton? we got to leave plymouth at about 1 and at the moment got no idea if to bother or not.thing is we never get snow 1st time this year and only for a couple of hours last but its completly white outside.....so before i battle the roads id like some idea if the game likely to be on
 






Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,365
Worthing
Snowing heavily and settling quickly in croydon currently.
 


The Wizard

The Wizard

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2009
18,401
The flow is NW'erly though right so these showers/streamers coming in over wales wont reach us as to far west? and the ones currently over london area will be to far east? Am I right? Of course due to the unstable flow we will probably see something at some point today I would think..
 














Papa Lazarou

Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
19,365
Worthing
TRHK said:
Anyone else have trouble seeing the Will It Rain Today image? I can see the site but not the main image - just grey.
Click to expand...

Refresh - it sometimes suffers from too many users.
 


pasty

pasty

A different kind of pasty
Jul 5, 2003
31,038
West, West, West Sussex
Bloody hoiking it down in Tottenham right now. Think I might leg it from the office very shortly.
 
















Lord Bracknell

Lord Bracknell

On fire
Jul 5, 2003
39,499
104 Upper Grosvenor Street, Mayfair
This morning's message from Graeme at the Met Office to all the local authorities in the south east ...


Good morning,

I've been saying for much of this week that there was considerable uncertainty about the weather for the weekend and that uncertainty looks set to continue right up to the wire. I'll pass on our best ideas at the current time but I would strongly emphasise that we will all need to keep a careful eye out for updates as we go through the next 24-36 hours.

Let's get today out of the way first; Most of the Southeast should have a dry but very cold day. There is a risk of a few heavy snow showers running in from the northwest right across the region and these would give a covering of snow - perhaps few centimetres - in any areas they do affect. A Flash warning was issued earlier this morning in relation to these showers ( Met Office: London South East England: severe weather warnings ). This included Milton Keynes and Bucks. It may need to be extended through the day. Monitor the radar images to keep track of these ( Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar ). A very cold day with temperatures barely getting above freezing in many places. Tonight a sharp frost everywhere before the problems and uncertainties start on Saturday.

The main problem we, as forecasters, are having is that the computer models are having difficulties in agreeing on the precise track of a small scale weather system which will be running across the UK during Saturday. A track across the south of England will bring us all potentially a lot of snow while one further south limits the extent of any snow. The Early Warning which was issued yesterday is being updated at the moment but a similar message to yesterday's will apply to us in the Southeast.

So current thoughts for the Southeast region is that we could see some snow showers running in from the west during tonight bringing a few centimetres of snow to many areas before a more persistent area develops and moves across during the day. I attach a map giving the current indication of potential snow depths for the whole UK during Saturday. You will see all SE counties can expect to see up to 10cm in places through Saturday and much of the southeast falls into the 10-15cm, locally 20cm by the end of Saturday. Along the south coast amounts should be smaller because there may well be a more of a rain/snow mix. I would stress once again though, the uncertainty in this detail and urge you to keep abreast of forecasts over the next 24 hours.

Sunday retains a risk of some sleet and snow in southern coastal counties from a frontal system running along the Channel and we will need to watch this one too. Some significant snowfall could result on Sunday if this system comes a little further north. By Sunday night though and then into Monday, things look quieter again. There will be some freezing fog patches around on Monday morning but Monday should be a cold, and mainly dry day with some sunshine. It looks like staying quiet but cold in our region at least for the first half of next week.

As usual, call me if you have any specific concerns (although I can't promise more detail than above on this occasion!). For urgent weather info over the weekend the best contact will be the EMARC forecaster. I will be around but I was hoping to start my Christmas shopping so if you need me, leave a message on the mobile rather than email.

Regards,
Graeme


Good to see he's waited until now to start his Christmas shopping.
 


Bigtomfu

Bigtomfu

New member
Jul 25, 2003
4,416
Harrow
Lord Bracknell said:
This morning's message from Graeme at the Met Office to all the local authorities in the south east ...


Good morning,

I've been saying for much of this week that there was considerable uncertainty about the weather for the weekend and that uncertainty looks set to continue right up to the wire. I'll pass on our best ideas at the current time but I would strongly emphasise that we will all need to keep a careful eye out for updates as we go through the next 24-36 hours.

Let's get today out of the way first; Most of the Southeast should have a dry but very cold day. There is a risk of a few heavy snow showers running in from the northwest right across the region and these would give a covering of snow - perhaps few centimetres - in any areas they do affect. A Flash warning was issued earlier this morning in relation to these showers ( Met Office: London South East England: severe weather warnings ). This included Milton Keynes and Bucks. It may need to be extended through the day. Monitor the radar images to keep track of these ( Met Office: British Isles: Rainfall radar ). A very cold day with temperatures barely getting above freezing in many places. Tonight a sharp frost everywhere before the problems and uncertainties start on Saturday.

The main problem we, as forecasters, are having is that the computer models are having difficulties in agreeing on the precise track of a small scale weather system which will be running across the UK during Saturday. A track across the south of England will bring us all potentially a lot of snow while one further south limits the extent of any snow. The Early Warning which was issued yesterday is being updated at the moment but a similar message to yesterday's will apply to us in the Southeast.

So current thoughts for the Southeast region is that we could see some snow showers running in from the west during tonight bringing a few centimetres of snow to many areas before a more persistent area develops and moves across during the day. I attach a map giving the current indication of potential snow depths for the whole UK during Saturday. You will see all SE counties can expect to see up to 10cm in places through Saturday and much of the southeast falls into the 10-15cm, locally 20cm by the end of Saturday. Along the south coast amounts should be smaller because there may well be a more of a rain/snow mix. I would stress once again though, the uncertainty in this detail and urge you to keep abreast of forecasts over the next 24 hours.
Click to expand...

LB - if you have them/it could you please post the Map of snow depths Graeme talks about?
 


Lord Bracknell

Lord Bracknell

On fire
Jul 5, 2003
39,499
104 Upper Grosvenor Street, Mayfair
Bigtomfu said:
LB - if you have them/it could you please post the Map of snow depths Graeme talks about?
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, he's sent it as a Powerpoint document and I can't get it copied on to NSC.

But the key information for Sussex is that the county finds itself in 3 different zones of risk for Saturday.

North Sussex:- Mod risk of snow becoming persistent, leading to 10-15 cm generally, but up to 20cm in places.

Most of the Sussex Coast:- Snow spreading northeast, giving 5-10 cm across SW England in the morning and mod risk to other areas later.

Coast of the far east of East Sussex and South Kent Coast:- At risk from scattered snow showers, giving 2-5 cm in places.

"Note that there is a high degree of uncertainty with detail".



Nothing to get very excited about, I think.
 








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